New York state week ending 8th Dec
DK $165m handle $12.8m hold (7.8%)
FD $213.1m handle $16.7m hold (7.8%)
Sub par week in my opinion but not a disaster. The strong trend on Fanatics handle finally broken. |
Useful insight from EKG Line (respected source in my opinion). FYI you can subscribe for free and no I am not connected in any way.
“Fanatics̵7; recent growth spike reflects the brand’s focus on getting OSB product right or ish before opening the marketing valve. We don’t think that spike is just product and marketing, however, with checks suggesting Fanatics is getting better at day-to-day execution—retaining the right customers, for example. Online casino, meanwhile, remains a work in progress.
A tiny dip (in Q3GGR) for FanDuel suggests its OSB moat is not as considerable as it once was, and competitors are catching up in key areas (e.g. SGP) where FanDuel was first-moving, best-in-class, or both. That said, FanDuel’s once-middling online casino operation has vastly improved, with the brand likely having nicked a not-insignificant slice of BetMGM’s online slots business, per our research and estimates” |
Talking shop = irrelevant & toothlessWhat about NY 1/12? |
The federal Senate Judiciary Committee has announced that it will hold a hearing on sports betting on Tuesday, Dec. 17.
The exact details of what will be discussed at the hearing, which is titled “America’;s High Stakes on Legalized Sports Gambling,” have not been specified. However, the fact that this session has been scheduled Senate’s final week before it breaks for winter recess suggests that sports betting has climbed up the agenda for federal lawmakers. |
Maryland highest ever rake Nov FD 14.4pc hold @ 40m & encouraging for all 30 others yet to declare DK 12pc @ 24mBetMGM 12pc @ 6mSeparately BetWay owner issued increased guidance after a strong Oct & Nov & increased divvi |
We must be mindful that the hold in Nov 23 was truly terrible for the books so a YoY comparison was bound to look strong. Plus handle was flat for FD and only marginally up for DK. Q4 looks okay (after reduced expectations already announced) no better than that in my opinion …Hopefully the weak start to Dec will be offset by a strong rest of month/holiday period.
News in US yesterday that 2 senators (1 Democrat/1 republican) are seeking an antitrust probe into Fanduel and DraftKings. Our share price in UK took a hit before close but recovered most ground on NYSE before their close. I doubt it will come to anything but you never know with Mr T at the helm. |
That's very impressive and puts Oct+Nov '24 on top of '23. 180m vs 152.4. |
FD November 103m up from 69m 2023 |
Re Fanatics 1 good week is not a trend. Fanatics total for previous 5 weeks is less than FD lowest single week in last 5FD handle was 40m up on last year they simply had a slightly less lucky week |
Re NY not ideal agreed. The one major issue with gridiron is they do not have draws like football so 2 options not 3. This makes it a LOT easier to pick singles doubles trebles etc etc that harm the books. Turkey day gives 3 single games and not the 6 game Sundays where s single loser can get the book out of jailHaving said that the hold was the first in 6 under 22m whereas DK all 6 under 20m And it was a weak hold but still ahead of last year do now 6 weeks on the bounce ahead of last year. |
Re Robinhood aka amateurs nothing to worry about. Years away for any comp if go in with anyone else & benefit if getting FD to white label |
New York w/e 1st Dec (Thanksgiving week)
FD $235.5m handle $14.3m hold (6.1%)
DK $202.7m handle $16.1m hold (7.9%)
Disappointing week in my opinion with a material dip in hold rate leaves us lower than DK 2 weeks on the trot. Fanatics had record week and are making small inroads into duopoly in this state. |
Robin Hood (US Trading platform) apparently considering a move into Sports Betting. Our share price dipped a few dollars when news filtered out but is now nearly back to original level. I am just the messenger and have no clue yet on whether this is nonsense/real.
NB since posting above the CEO has clarified that it wouldn’t be any time soon .. just that they are not ruling it out. |
Added amWorth watching today. NYSE shut yesterday & half day today. Question being if no buybacks yesterday is it double today and in 1/2 the time + in thin trading could help push up a tad |
Good data November looking v decent in NY & beyond Last year FD 69mThis year 3 full weeks equal 70m & half the early week say 13m total 83m + 6 days from Mon to follow. Given the Giants lost & Detroit failed to cover should be ok so maybe 10mgiving 93m Vs the 69m last year Macquarie Equity research note |
NY week ending 24th Nov
DK $161m handle $19.1m hold (11.9%)
FD $199m handle $23.1m hold (11.6%)
Strong performance from both main books considering the NFL results (I appreciate there are other sports and college American soccer apparently had many upsets). Interesting to see DK pip FD on hold rate… not often that happens.
Big week coming up with Thanksgiving break and NFL games live over their holidays. A few upsets would be welcome although I am now becoming more au fait with the “reverse line” concept where there is more money taken on the underdog. |
Great to read this. The weekend just gone is likely to be more pro punter friendly with the most important 4 NFL results all obliging for the punters but won’t cause too much damage (Dallas Cowboys had a shock win at least). Man City’s demise must be good for the International division but that’s my team so I can’t enjoy that. |
Equity research in the US out yesterday stated that Q4 levels are now back to level. 5 above average weeks have now cancelled out the poor fortnight. With FD above average holds things are looking up With non US being ahead, given a string of bookie friendly football & racing results the outlook looks strong. When the boss stating that turnover levels on Sunday nights are matching Super Bowl levels the relentless expansion looks unstoppable and the double digit improvement seen in other sectors around the World can give great confidence. With ESPN, YouTube TV and Netflix getting involved can only add to the party. Ads for Thanksgiving games cost 16pc more this year, because of both last years record and expected new levels of interest |
 Hi RKeck,thanks for your post.Nothing I say should be looked upon as advice and I've got plenty of calls wrong.
When I invest,for me substantial amounts I try to look at as much research as possible,examine the track record of the company and its management and to look at ' what if I get it wrong' scenario.
At present,end 2024,we've got a group compounding rate of 12%,US CAGR of 22%,a credible ( on the basis of track record to date) og CAGR 24% from FY 23 to 26.
Revenue last quarter was $3.25 billion and if states continue to open,and you believe in the ' flutter edge' proposition,a credible path to $21 billion by FY 27.
We're not there yet.However,if ( I know,a big word) this plays out,you have a company not far from doubling really fast growing revenue ( and also,through scale) profit margins.
I'm sure there will be times over the next couple if years that the share price will gyrate ( in both directions) but I would expect the company to ' grow into' it's PE.
For me,with the companies I invest large amounts( again,that's relative),I don't want to make the mistake of selling too early.All imo,dyor,etc,. |
Not the most logical post I will ever make but does anyone else find the surging share price almost scary??? I genuinely felt it was materially undervalued earlier this year so understand the surge … but it now seems to be propelled by its own momentum (ie perhaps people buying purely to get on board while it climbs steeply). I know I/we could sell some etc but that’s not my approach and I will handle the storm (or hopefully small downpour) when it comes. As other people have said, “ I hope I’m wrong”. |
I've been burnt by being overconfident with an investment that had a promising future.
The unforseen headwinds can be a hell of a reality check. (ie. Platform glitches, downtime, taxes, government policy shifts , etc)
I don't disagree that it looks promising, but if you're saying quarterly results don't matter based on the bigger picture... I can't see a world where investors will not punish a stock for missing earnings.
I've been looking over the numbers, but no matter how much I fudge them... I haven't been able to rationalize the stock over 290'ish on this rally.
I'd be happy to be proven wrong.... |
The most important thing is that investors are now confident in the promising CAGR % of this industry. That means quarterly results don't matter as much, since the big picture is so promising.
I still think that investors have only just found this stock. It has room to rally more. |
Up $100 (58%) year to date. |
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