Flowgroup Plc Share Discussion Threads

[larry335] 24/2/2015 09:24

Why pay 33p? Why not split the trade and pay less or just wait a bit?
I would have thought the share price will go to 27p at least now...

[1fox1] 24/2/2015 09:16

Well looks like the doom merchants were right after all. Looks a loooooooong way back to 46p. Hurts me to say it but looks 25p was a good call:o( What should have been the catalyst upwards ie the launch of the boiler is turning into a tailspin for the share price. Very disappointed should have sold when it breached 40p.

[cyberbub] 24/2/2015 09:04

MMs now trying to shake out shares to fill that very confident 100K buy?

[fruitninja84] 24/2/2015 09:00

Can't be much fun for forced sellers or any one selling at this level.. Esp on no news,

[rafieh] 24/2/2015 08:57

A 100k buy at 33p! That's 10% above the ask!

[hpcg] 24/2/2015 00:11

No one changes their boiler in the middle of winter if they can help it, that is literally the worst time to do it.

There isn't any news to come in the near future. Stop wining about it.

The share is clearly being shorted. It is being done so because it has mainly a retail following, there is a gap to news on the product success and the share price has a lot of success built in (all share prices do, but established companies are given the benefit of the doubt until they demonstrate otherwise). I have no problem with this, I short plenty myself. There are plenty selling for the same reasons.

I'm kicking myself for not unloading some when the immediate share price action was relatively predictable. Having said that its partly because I am under allocated here at about 3% and if sales perform to expectations I'd like to get to 10%. So swings and roundabouts, cheaper to build that position upon success, but a bigger hit if the opposite is the case.

The biggest worry to me is if this share has any sort of following on muppet central LSE.

p.s.

I have all electric heating / hot water so I don't believe anyone could make a business out of these so called combi-boilers, conventional boilers, or mCHP boilers since all the research I've done indicates there are no installations of these alleged devices.

[uppompeii] 23/2/2015 22:08

No I'm not. It's taken years of development to get to launch, why should I worry about installs in March or April, an 8 week time difference at most?

If I knew when the next RNS was I would be guilty of insider knowledge/trading.

[fox you] 23/2/2015 22:00

uppompeii 23 Feb'15 - 21:50 - 2810 of 2810 0 0
Who cares whether its March or April?
================

You are jesting, right?

When is the next news/RNS expected? I may join in just before that sub 30p for a spike, I hope.

ATB

Fox You

[uppompeii] 23/2/2015 21:50

Who cares whether its March or April? They know how much the boiler makes, I'm sure they even know it will produce less in the summer. I have a level of risk I'm happy with, Stiff & Co have got it ok the last 15 or so months I been invested/traded this, I'm not unhappy with what they have done recently. The numbers may change that in which case I will make a decision then - I may buy more, I may sell some or all.
Sure I'd rather the share price was going the other way, but shares go down as well as up.
Only invest what you can afford to lose.

[fox you] 23/2/2015 21:38

Quote:

staverly 23 Feb'15 - 03:43 - 2786 of 2808 0 0

Larry - I think you can discount your second reason; the elegant supply/install arrangements appear to make no w/c demands.

If installs begin this April, doesn't appear incongruous to me given the launch date, new technology etc. Perhaps they are still awaiting MCS approval ..
=====================

Hi

Why the "if installs begin this April." I thought April was defo but no one is able to put a date to it.
Why April and not now or early March?

Surely it would make more sense to get boilers in at peak of winter and show what kind of eletric produced money saved, you guys agree with me?

ATB DYOR

Fox You

[jscowi] 23/2/2015 21:04

Fox you (which I presume is suppose to read f#ck you, very pathetic) if you have such grave concerns or queries that you require an answer to, pick up the phone and contact the company.

There is your answer do not repeat your post again.

You should be very careful what you write on these boards, you are not as clever as you think big brother is watching.

[larry335] 23/2/2015 20:49

staverly
Sorry. I overlooked your post/feedback. It would seem you are correct about that.

[larry335] 23/2/2015 19:32

loobrush thread: "Dec 2014. Started this thread to more effectively highlight Flowgroup and the potential here for substantial share gain over the next twelve month
Starting price 25 p
Gain for 1 year 80%"

loobrush got that about right, but failed to mention that it would be back close to 25p just 2 months later...
It's a funny old game.

[1fox1] 23/2/2015 18:24

The sales depend on people and companies like Entu etc. These are the middle men who will be selling the boiler. Things like commission come into play. The bigger the carrot the more they will sell. A good salesman/woman can sell sand to the Arabs. Looking at the chart there are still lots of holders getting chased out the door. Need a positive statement to motivate the stock.

[david77] 23/2/2015 16:32

People buy a new boiler when the existing one packs up. They will make the purchase decision then comparing FLOW deal with others at that time.

[greenday] 23/2/2015 16:31

Grandwood
I think that is a fair overview, the big unknown risk is the ability to reach thier projected volume of sales, the first indication that they are on course for that I.E. In region of 1000-1500 units a month, is the time to pile in.

[grandwood] 23/2/2015 16:25

So where are we at for numbers in 2015....here's the best I have so far....

Energy supply customers: 66k
Energy supply revenue: 50m

Boiler sales (projected): 15k
Boiler sales revenue (@3.5k each): 52.5m

Assuming half the boiler sales are for new supply customers then supply revenue will also increase by 5.7m

So if all goes to plan, that's a total revenue for 2015 of c.110m.

10% margin (assumed) on supply: 5.6m
20% margin (assumed) on boiler sales: 10.5m
Gross profit: c.11m

Current market cap: c.70m
Raw forward P/E: 6.7

This assumes that the margin to flow on each boiler (@3.5k b4 VAT) will be 700. That leaves 300 for Jabil based on a raw "cost" of production at 2.5k. These numbers are only going to get better over time as production costs come down. It ignores any income from FIT and elec gen of the new boilers and also any liabilities built into the finance options. And of course, these figures also omit anything from Flow battery.

Have I missed anything?

[uppompeii] 23/2/2015 11:25

Apple wouldn't sell anything if price were a consideration.

[1fox1] 23/2/2015 11:25

Good point Peter but like I say it's not so much the price it's weather people want the product.

[peterd55] 23/2/2015 11:15

On buy now or later. The FiT is available for the first 30000 boilers. Maybe Flow will drop the price for boiler no. 30001?

[1fox1] 23/2/2015 11:09

Seems to be genuine support at these levels. Re the costing, it's generally acknowledged new technology items are more expensive. This is true of televisions, fridges, washing machines etc. It's like everything else if people like it they will buy it.

[grandwood] 23/2/2015 10:20

cyber...I had my money on RWE.

On the buy now vs. later debate, I think there will always be the gadget freaks (I might be one of them!) willing to pay a premium for new tech especially with flow de-risking the purchase with their finance options. Also, I can't see the finance deals lasting much beyond the end of the year and if they drop the price in the short term then they will also reduce the rebates accordingly.