First Property Share Discussion Threads

[m_kerr] 14/4/2021 17:47

Globalworth, who have significant poland and Romania office exposure,were bought out today by CBRE today, albeit at a 20% discount to NAV (share price currently higher presumably in expectation of a higher bid). Circle property , a UK office owner, reported just a 1.8% portfolio decline.

[stevegrass777] 13/4/2021 21:22

Agreed at this price you are getting great value, and I'm sure the share price will be re rated over time. I'm looking for more deals here, after the last property sale they have fire power for buying cheap properties. Hopefully they are working on something. Once a new purchase comes along the market should catch up.

[m_kerr] 09/4/2021 18:14

finally bought some. at this price the equity and investments are at roughly a 65% discount. given that the gdynia property accounts for a huge chunk of the leverage, assuming the lease was not renewed and they handed the keys back, the remaining directly owned properties (£31m) are at 50% LTV, meaning the current share price discounts the assets by about 30%. IMO, some of the assets are underpriced or at the very least conservatively valued, e.g. the romanian industrial asset is in the books at €3.5m despite generating €0.33m of net operating income. i see minimal downside here over a reasonable time period given that each property has separate non recourse debt. if they are able to ramp up the AUM managed for third parties, and it becomes clear that values are not in freefall, the shares should rerate upwards.

[m_kerr] 27/1/2021 17:03

drifting down a bit, almost hit my target price.

[m_kerr] 29/12/2020 15:25

i'm not doubting some funds will be raised, but i highly doubt there will be £200-300m extra any time soon. main reason being their stock in trade for funds is UK offices, where there is some uncertainty going forward because of work from home. however, they have been agile in the past, so if they felt that way they'd pivot elsewhere.

[stevegrass777] 24/12/2020 22:53

I disagree, I think they will easily find Co investors, simply because they have always managed to do this in the past, probably because they have an excellent track record. We will see in the new year I suppose. It will be interesting what projected returns will be from new investments, they always manage to gain better yields and better loan terms than I can manage personally in property investment. Good luck all and have a great Christmas and New Year

[m_kerr] 24/12/2020 20:40

i agree that habib seems to have the midas touch, and has a record of seeing trends to profit from in the property market. going back years, they have always had a substantial cash balance, so in my view, i dont think they will invest more than £10-12m in equity, which if not co-investing only allows them to buy £30-40m of property. i dont take it as a given that third parties will pile in to make co-investments. i expect them to proceed with caution, and that's not necessarily a bad thing as it's better to sit on cash than enter into average deals.

[stevegrass777] 23/12/2020 23:30

Ben habib and the others seem to have very good timing and always seem to make good deals, if you look at the last building that was sold just before covid effected the market properly, that move leaves fpo in a great position to buy assets on the cheap. Also plenty of other great moves along the way. Fpo's market cap is depressed at the moment,and we are awaiting for the money from the last sale to be deployed so I would guess that the market cap will increase once a decent rent paying investment comes along. It's just been a bad year for lots of companies including property companies, but fpo is better positioned than most and that's down to good management.

[m_kerr] 23/12/2020 19:30

what are people's thoughts on remuneration? CEO got £1.6m in 2019 and £1.2m this year. and there's plenty of chunky bonuses all round when they make excess profits. this for a £41m market cap company. and the largest shareholders are either his friends, or very long term shareholders (basically since inception). so basically they control the company and so there wont be any downward pressure on his pay (but is there ever??). corporate governance is an issue here as none of the directors are independent.

[stevegrass777] 30/11/2020 17:32

Also aj mucklow was a fantastically run reit and has been swollowed up buy London metric, thay had a piece in one of its annual reports that stated if you invested when it floated on the stock market in 76 or there about £2000 it would be worth £2m or something like that, (this is just off memory so not exact word for word. But just trying to show reit's can do well over the long term if run well.

[skyship] 30/11/2020 17:24

Just put CP+ in the BB Box; or click this link: https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=29245091

[m_kerr] 30/11/2020 17:12

usual little bounce following simon thompson's update. sky ship - over the long term, the share price needs to be close to net assets, as ultimately a shareholder can only sell out at NAV. the discounts of British land and others are down to structural problems. large illiquid portfolios are highly prized in a rising market, not so in a falling one where a substantial discount is appropriate. i think first prop are very well placed as they have a small portfolio with cash being more than their directly owned equity, and the ability to move where they see value rather than being tied down to a country, or type of asset. but for me the real opportunity is if the investment community recognise it as an asset manager. and for that to happen they need to grow that side of the business, and then the market cap needs to be much higher, more like £100m+, so that institutions can purchase stock. and thanks for the welcome, yes i'm relatively new to investing but have been doing so for about 5 years. i'm not sure how to get to the CP+ thread though?

[standish11] 30/11/2020 13:24

Conclusion of Simon Thompson’s update today:- Trading on a modest PE ratio of 9 and offering a near 5 per cent dividend yield, expect the hefty discount to book value to narrow as the cash pile is deployed. Buy.

[skyship] 29/11/2020 13:42

m_kerr - a bit of a sweeping generalisation there; though also a lot of truth in it. Your references are of course to the blue chip propcos (BLND, LAND etc) which had to seriously downsize and launch massively diluting rights issues back in 2009. There were others who have done very well and massively outperformed - SGRO & CLI being two such. Judging by your profile saying you arrived here at ADVFN as recently as just last year; perhaps you are new to the investment game. If so, lucky you - a lifetime ahead and much to learn. Coming as one with over 50yrs experience; might I suggest you don't discard the REIT sector. Follow us on the CP+ thread and keep an open mind. Good luck...

[m_kerr] 29/11/2020 11:52

you need to have a closer look at the accounts. none of the interests in associates are in the UK, which are the material ones. they have £3.2m of equity exposure to the UK under the investments category. so not quite nil, but it currently represents about 4.9% of Fprop's assets as there's about £64.9m of cash and equity held by the group in total. but in terms of that 4.9%, in gross asset terms the UK may be a fraction of that due to the high leverage of the group properties in poland and romania.

[cflather2000] 28/11/2020 23:25

FPO's ex cash nav is made of of uk property more than any other country, I believe, through the funds

[m_kerr] 28/11/2020 22:29

reading some of these comments proves my point that this isn't a well understood company. why should it be valued in line with a UK reit when it doesnt own any UK property? not to mention it isn't a REIT. and REITs are not just about discount to NAV. most UK reits have been capital destruction machines over time. investing at the top of the cycle and selling at the bottom. chasing unsustainable yield. having to sell off what few good assets they have, leaving them with the rubbish. most have large illiquid portfolios that there simply isn't a market for at the moment, or at least at a price somewhere near book value.

[eezymunny] 28/11/2020 14:08

Isn´t what remains of their property on a LTV of 70% or something? Equity on that could be wiped out...and that would leave the fund mgt biz worthless too. I like FPO but a bit risky here for me. Give me 25p por favor...

[stevegrass777] 28/11/2020 12:38

The difference is in that 37p a big percentage of it's nav is in cash couple that with being able to gear it up via the fund management side of things they are better positioned to buy property on the cheap. Mainly property companies are at wide discounts because of fear that the property market will tank, those fully invested will feel the full force of this if it happens, those cashed up and with a big ability to gear up will take full advantage of cheaper prices. So fpo isn't quite in the same boat as some

[skyship] 28/11/2020 11:45

Problem with the share price @ 37p is that at a 32% discount and a 4.5% yield, FPO actually look fully priced against so many UK REITs - BREI & SREI in particular. Then if you want a UK/Europe mix CLI far better value on a 39% discount.

[jpmorgan] 27/11/2020 10:37

Thought results were positive and as expected in terms of financial numbers (NAV and cash resources), and hopes for the future, but noted the view on reduction on reduction in rental income in the short term and the need to reinvest relatively soon. FPO certainly has a stable setup to leverage upon, and the financial resources to take advantage of these opportunities and as always the potential is there, and is on my monitor list. Still holding back till can see the direction/appetite for non-uk property looks to change in market.

[stevegrass777] 27/11/2020 09:44

Yes with the NAV performance it's hard to explain fpo as a lifestyle company, it's just the share price has lagged nav.

[blobby] 27/11/2020 09:32

Disagree... they are too active and successful for that description.

[fanshaw] 26/11/2020 14:50

Another Lifestyle Company.