Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 16:53

you should berate and thrash yourself with loosestrife

[aleman] 24/11/2011 16:35

Any news from the AGM, Boffster? Well done if you made it. (bigfrocks, too). I'm slightly disappointed I didn't make it. Maybe next time.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 15:44

You aint wrong.

[aleman] 24/11/2011 14:18

Increased turnover would make the debt look more manageable, even if it was flat. With debt falling as well, there should be a reappraisal here.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 14:14

It'll be interesting to see the debt position - whether they're able to continued erosion of recent years

[aleman] 24/11/2011 13:59

Consensus forecast for this year had turnover up 3% (£6m) for 2011/12 yet it's up 17% (£10m) in the first 4 months! Even if this is expected to tail off, we must surely beat forecast over the whole year. We knew margins were under pressure anyway and they are gradually expected to recover. I'm less sure now about forecasts not changing. I can see them being tweaked up a touch.

[aleman] 24/11/2011 13:36

Finsbury has been picked up by Shares Magazine for a second time today. The first time, it was tipped as a buy on fundamentals a few months ago just ahead of results. Today, it is tipped as a traders buy on a good looking chart (as I have been highlighting over the summer). The target price is right up at 66p no less, with interim targets of 37p and 47p along the way. Regardless of how much you rate Shares Mag or charting, the publication of these tips, and the strong likelihood follow-up coverage will give some extra publicity. As this share seems very overlooked, and fundamentals make the shares look cheap, and the latest update suggest business as usual, the extra current publicity and prospect of more to come can surely only benefit the share price.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 12:26

Great cashflow, which is the lifeblood of most businesses

[topvest] 24/11/2011 12:06

I saw it as a very positive trading statement. Very strong revenue growth but operating margins (i.e. % margin not absolute operating profits, I think?) lower due to cost inflation. You do have to bear in mind that their trading statements are being read by their customers and so they are certainly not going to say that margins are improving and that the market is great! Overall, this sort of performance is very strong. Current year results look very positive.

[aleman] 24/11/2011 12:01

Don't know what the wheat chart in the header is but this is May 2012 futures in £/tonne. I can't see margins being a problem while prices keep falling and are down on 12 months ago.

[aleman] 24/11/2011 09:48

I tend to think the trading statement is positive. We know we had margin pressure from previous news but they said price increases were being pushed through gradually and efficiencies increased. Increased volumes and new product ranges should help this. Also, money spent on new promotional activity is a double-edged sword; it depends how sales hold when it is cut back. If sales hold up as advertising and marketing is eased and promotional pricing increased, margins rise, but falling sales can wipe out the benefit.

So, overall hard to say but the higher turnover probably increases options. The market makers marked the shares up so they agree that it is probably positive on balance. Will the brokers lift forecasts a touch? I'm guessing not but we'll see. We might know more when Boffster and bigfrocks get back from the AGM.

[spaceparallax] 24/11/2011 09:45

An encouraging TS, confirming the real challenges in today's economic environment - well done FIF, keep up the good work and initiative. I look forward to hearing feedback from those able to attend the AGM.

[mrphil] 24/11/2011 07:57

Operating margins lower, but otherwise a reasonable trading statement imho.

[spaceparallax] 23/11/2011 15:16

I know what you mean. It pays to give consideration to potential risk, but some posters do exhibit an unnatural focus - almost as if it were in their best interests to promote the downside!

[boffster] 23/11/2011 15:16

Aleman, maybe he's like 'Unlucky Alf' from the fast show.

[aleman] 23/11/2011 15:07

Do you stay indoors for fear of being hit by meteors, markt?

And are would you like us to go over to the ILX thread and post similar nonsense about their business model?

[boffster] 23/11/2011 14:48

"but I am sure that you longs will say that that could never ever happen again !"

I have to ask myself if someone would ever refer to other shareholders as 'you longs' if he was a shareholder himself?

Was I right on the money about you selling out the other day?

[markt] 23/11/2011 13:48

What's the gas price doing by the way ?

(in 1 previous year the gas cost increased by 1M versus the year before....but I am sure that you longs will say that that could never ever happen again ! )

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Am I correct that adjusted EPS was 7.0p last year and 7.1p this year ...despite 20M rise in turnover ?!!

could turnover go up another 20M and adjusted EPS move up to just 7.2p ?!....or is there an explanation ?

(adjusted EPS is....adjusted....so there should be no explanations...the adjustments to remove 1 offs are already included)
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Financial advantages of 5 years of synergy and bulk buying savings and moving production between acquired companies .....where is it ?....I don't think I see it in the numbers...PAT/turnover is very low imo and has not increased
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BTW....imho...overpaid significantly for Lightbody acquisition
paid almost the same as turnover (52M for 46-48M of turnover) (including 4M value for the site still rented from Mr Lightbody and debt)(well at least Lord Saatchi made millions out of it ! and probably on his options as well, so many options at FIF !, 20p exercise price and lots of his sale to Lightbody was at 90p and not 85p, 70p/option gain))...crazy imho for low profit margin sector

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(if profitability increases then debt can be reduced in a few years and dividend possibilities increases and share price would increase

....but if profitability falls then debt will increase in importance since it would be a bigger ratio versus profits (and dividend possibilities would be drastically reduced) and one assumes would hit share price....

PAT/turnover..4/189..about 2%...pretty small imo...due to tough competitive sector...but noting that P/E is also small/cheap....the low PAT as % of turnover and high fixed costs (such as interest and labour) are probably part of the reason that FIF shares have been on low P/E...went down as low as 15p)

[aleman] 23/11/2011 12:35

RGD shares are geared to sugar - they're tanking, too.

[boffster] 23/11/2011 11:54

Sugar prices dropping like a stone, if the ETF is anything to go by.

[aleman] 21/11/2011 14:15

Not much movement for such a sale. Probably just cleared the MMs' short positions. Back to normal trading now, hopefully, with a bit more liquidity than before the results which encouraged the recent modest buying.

[boffster] 21/11/2011 13:13

Well, there's a sale. Wonder who that was. Not many folk have that quantity of shares

[spaceparallax] 21/11/2011 12:14

We do seem to be holding a positive trend despite the general Mkt gloom, which is eroding so many sps without fundamental reason.

[boffster] 21/11/2011 12:05

Isn't it nice, on days of turmoil such as this, to be invested in a stock where one can actually do a reasonably simple calculation as to its intrinsic value.