Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 26/7/2017 10:47

Aha, indeed DD... well spotted!
Lol

[discodave4] 26/7/2017 10:44

Villa - Nice to be thinking of top slicing, congratulations.Sogoesit - Think the Investec target was for end of today! - they never put a timeframe on their targets?.DD

[sogoesit] 26/7/2017 10:34

Well, well, well... £22.
Is that the magic number from the analyst yesterday who said 2220p?

Look like folks think "materially above its (the board's) expectations" will also be above my own exorbitant expectations....
I just thought it meant the board didn't know what was going to happen!!

[villarich] 26/7/2017 10:29

DD I had him on filter but his posts started appearing again. I would normally ignore him but couldn't resist biting this morning after he spouted that absolute [e-mail]'s performance is even more pleasing than yesterday's. Tempted to top slice but not yet!!

[gersemi] 26/7/2017 10:17

Well done here. Hats off..magic

'super, smashing, great' as someone once said, continuously

[discodave4] 26/7/2017 10:16

Blimey, did think it would retrace slightly today...........looks like a fever epidemic!.Villa - Just filter christh, complete plonker.DD

[villarich] 26/7/2017 10:15

Did you sell then Christh? I hope for the sake of your portfolio you didn't.

[villarich] 26/7/2017 08:41

If you think something is amiss (maybe your oft-spouted takeover by Diageo is falling through) then you should sell Christh. Clearly you've made a profit now after you got spiked at £17.50 so off you toddle.The only time I'm worried about director sells is if the share price and business are struggling or flatlining, not after it's gone up 20% after announcing stellar results.

[grabster] 26/7/2017 08:33

Any substantial pullback in the next few days or weeks and I am in for more.

[funkmasterp12] 26/7/2017 08:30

Well, the RNS says to secure institutional demand so we may see some holdings RNS to follow.

[christh] 26/7/2017 08:26

Villarich 26 Jul '17 - 08:18 - 795 of 795
Oh look we're in the blue!! £18 my @rse

not interested in buying your @rse!

The directors have cashed in!
Why?

Do they lack confidence or they are securing their money?

Not very promising, not very inspiring.

Doubtful.

[villarich] 26/7/2017 08:18

Oh look we're in the blue!! £18 my @rse

[grabster] 26/7/2017 08:09

I am perfectly comfortable with this. And not the least bit perturbed by silly comments from very amateur scaremongers running in and out of the room with a white sheet over their head shouting "Whoohooh!.

A bit of clatter to be expected while this train is 'crossing the points'.

[villarich] 26/7/2017 08:07

And why do you suspect it is a cut and run? What are they cutting and running from? Did you read the results RNS yesterday? I suspect they are rebalancing their wealth given the rise yesterday.

[villarich] 26/7/2017 08:05

Christh why £18? Is this another fantasy figure again?

[christh] 26/7/2017 07:53

directors sold yesterday so likely to fall around £18

Timmy sold 1.5 million shares

Tim Warrillow..25/07/2017......1,500,000.....1,925p...6,184,352.... 5.4%
--------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------
Bill Ronald...25/07/2017.......50,000......2,083p.......392,771



A cut and run?

[inv] 26/7/2017 07:17

up to £22.50 by lunchtime

[doctor 69] 25/7/2017 23:22

topped up today as i agree analysts have not caught up here , behind the curve.

[villarich] 25/7/2017 23:07

Indeed Sogoesit. Or you could say he's £40m richer over the course of the last 24 hours!

[sogoesit] 25/7/2017 22:12

Interesting footnote on timing:
If our main man, Mr Rolls, had waited a few weeks he could have scooped about an extra £18 million gross!!

[discodave4] 25/7/2017 17:27

Thanks Sogoesit.Quick calcs, H2 eps last year was nearly double H1, so could be c 49p eps for FY17. Average PE is 53, so nearly £26.DD

[sogoesit] 25/7/2017 16:44

Yes, I think Investec's forecast is problematic but, on the other hand, it's not easy to get a grip on the upside.
When someone asked before results what the half year revenue would be I said £80m.

Well, we got to £72m. But my £80m was based on half the FY to 31 December 2017.
And that was based on 65% annual growth to £168m and discounting a bit.

If we stick with the, not unreasonable imv, annual growth of 65% then £168m would leave about £96m for 2H17. Sounds a lot but is it unreasonable?

Last year's 2H16 growth over 1H16 was 49%. If 2H17 is £96m then that's half-over-half-year growth of 35%. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me... even conservative.

So, sticking with the FY17 figure of £168m we get EBITDA of £59m and Net Earnings of £47m at a 20% tax take or 41p/share. (40p/share has been my EPS for FY17 for a while now).
Awarding that a P/E of 50 gives an share price of about £20.48. That's a PEG of 0.76 and, again, not unreasonable imv.
Awarding it a PEG of 1.00 (i.e. a P/E of 65) gives an share price target of £26.63 for the year to 31 December 2017.

QED ;-)