Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 30/4/2017 16:17

Seen the article myself now.

What LJ doesn't touch on is the following point made in the Prelim Results:

"it is notable that gin only accounts for 6% of the global premium spirits category. The dark spirits category, on the other hand, accounts for 60% of global premium spirits, ten times the size. ...... New Fever-Tree products will be launched in 2017 to complement our existing dark spirit mixing range, reintroducing quality and choice to the trade and consumers of dark spirits. We believe that an exciting opportunity exists to work alongside the premium spirits brands to reinvigorate the dark spirits category, in much the same way we approached the gin category over ten years ago."

[aimingupward2] 30/4/2017 12:10

Positive re further growth or cautious?

[wetdream] 30/4/2017 11:39

Article in today's ST by Luke Johnson comparing FeverTree to Red Bull-amongst other things.
Subcription needed?

[devalpha] 29/4/2017 12:41

The IC is useful for identifying shares to research further but I wouldn't take much notice of their recommendations. Last year, whoever's behind the Bearbull column in the IC basically rubbished Fevertree and couldn't even get Charles Rolls surname correct! I remember reading it and thinking the research and thought that's gone into this amounts to 10mins max. Fevertree haven't done too badly since.

[staverly] 28/4/2017 18:45

For my sins i take a copy of IC each week, just as an insurance policy against missing an interesting financial report, not to read the platitudinous drivel that's served up week in, week out. Today's comments about FEVR in their AIM 100 survey appear disingenuous:

'Last year was branded "exceptional" by the company, somewhat acceptably, given the growth ...' No it wasn't. The source document actually states: "2016 was another exceptional year of growth ... " which has totally different meaning. It is noteworthy that the 2015, 2016, 2017 preliminary result's outlook were all but identical. Do the Math.

The idiot who wrote the article couldn't even be bothered to check the dividend,FFS.

[sogoesit] 27/4/2017 10:02

FCF Cash Conversion:
FEVR : 81%
BOO : 21%

FCF before Capex, Interest & Dividends Conversion:
FEVR : 99.65%
BOO : 97.68%

BOO is investing more - £30.675m vs FEVR's £0.823m

[3fiona] 27/4/2017 09:11

Totally agreed plus FEVR pay dividends.

[staverly] 27/4/2017 07:47

Sgi ... well argued. Worth noting a stock's FCF generation ability:

Last 2 fiscal years ...

ASC: ~£130m
BOO : ~£4m (£9m in past 3 years)
FEVR : ~£30m

BOO is also the odd man out as it never had first mover advantage.

DYOR

[sogoesit] 27/4/2017 04:54

I think it's a timing issue, staverly, that is misleading you. I.e. In the progression of growth from inception.
BOO generates about £295m for a net pass through to the bottom line of 10%.
FEVR is generating £100m for a net pass through of 27% to the bottom line, one third of BOO's.
BOO is growing top line at 50% but FEVR is at 73%.
They trade on similar P/E's (70-80) but same PEGs approx.
There will come a time, if growth rates remain constant in each case, that FEVR's top line will be the same as BOO's, and approaching that when the higher FEVR profitability will generate higher earnings, but between here and there no one is going to pay for that prospect now, given the risks. In time, maybe yes.
Next year's forecast revenue for BOO looks like £435m and FEVR's £175m netting at £43m and £47m respectively or 4p/share and 40p/share respectively. Market caps therefore forecast at £3.60bn and £2.75bn respectively.
They are simply different sizes at this point in time and for the next few years.
I hold both but don't see any reason to pay more now for FEVR than BOO as the risk/reward ratios "stack-up" reasonably for both; even less for FEVR imv.

[staverly] 27/4/2017 02:40

Admittedly it's a judgement call, but for some time it has struck me as crackers that Boohoo can justify a market value (or EV) similar to Fever-tree. Yesterday's FY results further reinforces that view. Fever-tree has to be worth at least double.

[martywidget] 26/4/2017 10:28

Ssh, keep quiet about Distil please!
There might be some that have made so much here they could probably buy out Distil themselves!

[toptrump1] 26/4/2017 09:34

Sold half here to switch to DIS where the story is just unfolding. Now I have Gin and Tonic.
Heh, maybe Fevr will snap up DIS to complement it. It would be peanuts to them 15m for a 2Bn co, ;)

[panic investor] 25/4/2017 18:12

For what it's worth every place I go it's only FEVR tonic - all kicked Schweppes out ages ago - and I sold at 1250 :-(Might buy back in tbh

[wetdream] 25/4/2017 18:00

May have asked it before...but why does it take (for example) 17 separate ATs to buy 2100 shares? Some in single figures-4,6, etc
Guess I should know, but hey-ho....

[wetdream] 25/4/2017 17:50

SP seems to be soaking up the sells and still has upward momentum.
Perhaps RBC's £17 forecast will prove to be achievable.
Onwards & upwards! ;-)

[bamboo2] 25/4/2017 15:11

Sogoesit, Near term tp, and the reason for adding, based on an expected eod close above 1616 is tp 1717. The INVH&S adds 101 above the neckline, hence the twinned figures!

Longer term is still 1800

[wetdream] 25/4/2017 13:08

Ah,ha.
The first holdings RNS appears.
let's not forget that these c.45k sells are about £800k each!
Onwards & upwards. ;-)

[sogoesit] 25/4/2017 11:05

I wish, bamboo ;-)
Now full-up to 12% of my portfolio on this one.
Close to intermediate target met, 1625p, next, longer term, 2000p, awaited by end year.

What's your trading target on this now?

Good luck

[bamboo2] 25/4/2017 10:44

Added earlier. :)

[wetdream] 23/4/2017 14:37

Finbarot,
The majority of shares in FEVR are held by institutions-according to the website-so I'd be surprised if such a report would have any influence, either up or down.
Steady buying at c.£15.60 means that we'll be getting a new holder base.
IMHO?

[finbarot] 22/4/2017 16:21

I have a small sb account, and they send out a daily report of 3 shares that have either buy or sell signals, usually buy ones. On Friday one was FEVR and it was a sell.Now I have no idea re TA,for all I know they work on the one potato two potato method.What I do know was that a few weeks ago they sent out the same report on FEVR to sell, and about 3 or 4 days later the share tanked by around a quid.I just mention this in case anyone is thinking of buying more, it may be worth holding fire for a few days or maybe relook at your stops.Im in this for the long haul and I have great faith in the company.Even if it did drop Im sure it will recover, as it did a few weeks a go.As always DYOR, DSTM,loose lips cost lives, etc etc

[terry topper] 22/4/2017 15:15

Sogoesit
It's just the 500ml bottles in the Tesco Express as well - presume it's the most effective approach for these convenience store formats given the space constraints. The only Schweppes option was, and is, the 1 litre bottles.

[sogoesit] 22/4/2017 12:51

A quote from the web-site about water and bubble design:

"FROM THE ELMHURST SPRING
We use the very best quality natural spring water from a source in rural Staffordshire. With a low mineral content, this water is very soft, thus ensuring that our drinks are subtle in their taste and clean in their finish. High carbonation is a vital component of any mixed drink which is why we carbonate our products to an exceptionally high level. By using small, perfect bubbles we have been able to create an even smoother finish to our drinks. The smaller bubbles, combined with the viscosity created by using natural sugars, means that all of our drinks stay carbonated for longer - crucial when you are mixing them with spirits."

Well, what more can i say ;-)?