Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 18/4/2018 08:26

Ex div tomorrow (7.64p).

[villarich] 17/4/2018 16:31

Sorry I understand that now! Thanks for clarifying.

[orissander] 17/4/2018 16:02

Based on sogoesit toughts. I agree for a revenue growth of 50% in line and a little lower than before, it’s unreal that forecasted growth on many internet sites are of about 10/15%. Just that.

[sogoesit] 17/4/2018 15:59

Unfortunately its not possible/easy to compare our Fever with other competitors.
Dr "Pepper Sniffle Snaffle" don't break down their subsidiary brands' (Schweppes & Canada Dry) revenue and Fentimans is a private company.

However, according to Companies House, Fentimans' 2016 turnover was £24,141,167; 2015 Turnover was £19,377,186 and 2014 was £15,341,582 thus giving growth rates of 24.5% and 26.3%.
So Fentimans is not really a competitor, merely a small niche player by the looks of it, albeit growing reasonably and consistently well. Similar gross margins to FEVR (33% in 2016).

By comparison the UK "Soft Drinks" Market was valued at 16.53 bn euros (say £15 bn) in 2016 and non-cola carbonated drinks were about 12% of that making £1.80 bn.

[villarich] 17/4/2018 15:35

Sorry orissander but you can't just say someone's detailed analysis is wrong and not provide any counter arguments or analysis.Can you say why overall growth will be 50% please? Based on what?

[villarich] 17/4/2018 15:33

Thanks for this analysis. Really good and justifies the initial view. On a 60x multiple were looking at a good rise over the course of the year.

[orissander] 17/4/2018 14:21

As you can see forecasts are of 204£ revenue for 2018, really low.

hxxp://www.4-traders.com/FEVERTREE-DRINKS-PLC-18470250/financials/

I agree with your calculations, forecasted growth is wrong and the stock price will rise when the forecast will be changed for a 50% revenue growth. (and not 10/15%).

[sogoesit] 17/4/2018 12:40

Some numbers:

Looking at historical growth rates since 2014, between UK, USA, Europe & RoW, the UK has been the outstanding performer with growth as follows:
2014/'15: 83.7%
2015/'16: 118.4%
2016/'17: 96.4%
The next biggest market has been Europe, with 26.29% share last year and the following historical growth rates:
2014/'15: 66.4%
2015/'16: 39.15%
2016/'17: 43.8%
Followed by the USA with 17.36% share and the following historical growth rates:
2014/'15: 65.21%
2015/'16: 55.39%
2016/'17: 38.86%

The RoW has been pretty inconsistent at the following:
2014/'15: 49.93%
2015/'16: 88.41%
2016/'17: 57.09%

If we plug some forecast regional growth rates of:
UK: 65%
Europe: 40%
USA: 40%
RoW: 50%
into deducing gross revenue, with operating profit at 35% margin and net earnings with a 20% tax rate for 2018 we get:
63.26p EPS on overall revenue growth of 53% (£261million).
NB not far off the back-of-envelope figures of 60p we have been bandying about to date.

If anyone wants me to plug other regional growth scenarios into this worksheet let me know.

[villarich] 17/4/2018 08:32

ccr - re Brewdog, if you're not a drinker of craft beer then they do a gateway beer called Indie Pale Ale. Try that one first, or their citrus IPAs - Elvis Juice and Clockwork Tangerine. Both are excellent summer drinks.If I'm doing you a disservice and you're a craft beer drinker, then get stuck into Jackhammer or Native Son - double IPAs of the 8 to 9% variety!

[villarich] 17/4/2018 08:28

Sorry I didn't see that article as a bad article, just giving a different perspective. It's important we consider both sides of an investment. I personally think it's spot on. The product is great, a premium niche. But if you want to earn a quick 1000% return on an investment now then you won't find it here.

[villarich] 17/4/2018 08:25

Yes I did. He's definitely a one off! Single-minded is probably the politest way I could describe him! They've created a great brand and business though, and I think he prides himself on doing things 'differently.' The range of beers is phenomenal and ability to keep things fresh is ground breaking. Even opening a craft beer hotel. They've taken a market that was traditionally unfashionable and turned it into a relevant, premium and profitable business. A bit like Fever Tree!

[orissander] 16/4/2018 23:54

Disco, yes it is.

I posted in the comments my disappoint :D

[villarich] 16/4/2018 20:29

Thanks snew. I'm already a shareholder with a fridge full of their finest! Their crowdfunding will only take them so far and think they'll float in a couple of years.

[discodave4] 16/4/2018 19:51

orissander Don't know if this was the article but to be honest it's just saying the usual - highly rated, priced for perfection, but excellent product and management.hTTps://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4162639-fevertree-strong-performance-good-product-expensiveDD

[ccr1958] 16/4/2018 16:40

Well done villa hope Dad enjoyed the gift set .. excellent little pressie .. brew dog sounds interesting will have a taste test !

[orissander] 16/4/2018 16:16

Someone on Seeking alpha did a bearish analysis on Fevertree yesterday, but seems clueless really... Happy monday to all!

[snew] 16/4/2018 14:57

Villa,
Regarding BD - You can apply for shares on their site before they float. I believe if you are an equity holder you get 20% off their beer on the website as well.

[villarich] 16/4/2018 14:15

So who went and bought one of the gift sets then? I picked one up for my dads birthday.As for the rest of the weekend, I was mostly drinking Brewdog. Looking forward to them floating in the next few years.

[orissander] 16/4/2018 11:26

Under 27,50£ is a steal.

Next ER will show strong growth, against low forecasted irrealistic growth and the stock will pop really strong.

[ccr1958] 15/4/2018 15:12

Beware of the poster nicebut ,he posted here a week or so about shorting this , he is strange one ,if I go long he goes short ,sad really ! But beware he can’t even lie straight . Looking forward to tomorrow..

[ccr1958] 14/4/2018 09:28

Love a macd reversal .... you can’t keep quality down imo... buy ur other halves the gift pack from sainsburys they’ll love it ... have a good weekend!

[orissander] 13/4/2018 22:39

Macd reversing? Seems we are in the verge of a big rise in the next weeks

[jitters3] 13/4/2018 13:15

Particularly Aston Girl