Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 21/2/2017 16:37

New closing high.
Got me wondering whether folks buying this year's earnings, not credible, or next year's but what are they forecasting?
Unless the story just caught on and the crowd is now joining...

[martywidget] 15/2/2017 10:24

Published on 13 Feb 2017

Last month, Zak Mir tipped Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR) to hit £12.70 and he now reckons it’s on track for £14 – although he says it might be best to buy on any weakness.
“Probably the best thing if you’re looking to buy into [the stock] is to wait for any dips towards the 50-day moving average,” Mir explains in the latest Proactive Investors Bulletin Board segment.
“£11.50 to £12 is the dip zone with the top of the channel [heading] towards £14. So the message here is while we’re above the 50-day moving average, we’re looking for a £14 target.”



Fevertree tipped to bubble its way up to £14...
09:40 13 Feb 2017
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/6903/fevertree-tipped-to-bubble-its-way-up-to-14-6903.html

[martywidget] 15/2/2017 07:32

[Fevertree gingers up its drink range - February 14 2017, 12:01am, The Times]


2 AIM shares I reckon could join the FTSE 100
Ian Pierce | Wednesday, 15th February, 2017

[croasdalelfc] 14/2/2017 07:43

New ginger ales from FEVR highlighted in Times today

[martywidget] 12/2/2017 10:42

Late to the party but tonic water still has me buzzing
Becky Barrow: Money Editor
February 12 2017, 12:01am, The Sunday Times

[wiseacre] 09/2/2017 14:00

It's time to take profits. At least that seems to be the view of two of the largest institutional holders Old Mutual and Blackrock, both of whom have cut their holdings. Private investors would be best advised to follow their lead. Though the next set of figures will be good the current rating is unsustainable.

[wetdream] 09/2/2017 11:31

Think the market has paused-fewer buyers, hence several large 'O' trade sells having larger than normal effect.IMHO.
SP's dropped £1 before now before moving up again.
Results due 21st March. Think we should expect some nervousness!

[finbarot] 09/2/2017 10:38

is this drop due to Blackrock selling another tranch I wonder?

[wetdream] 06/2/2017 09:21

Already plenty of competition



The whole market's growing, not only in the UK.
Fevertree has good overseas growth opportunities.

[martywidget] 05/2/2017 11:00

Quite, for example Britvic is also branching out recently into the premium mixer category:

First all-light mixer collection breathes new life into premium category
28 Nov 2016


13 Jun 2016. Britvic has today launched WiseHead Productions, an incubator company setup to create drinks for adults who seek quality drinking experiences.

[mtioc] 05/2/2017 09:49

I was on BA the other day and while tonic was FT all other mixers were follkingtons. Competition is inevitable.

[martywidget] 05/2/2017 07:49

Trendy soft drinks maker Fentimans announces five-year plan and £1m investment to boost sales as mixer for alcoholic drinks




[Battle for Britain’s poshest tonic fizzing up as Fentimans prepares to take on Fever-Tree with range of upmarket mixers Published: 21:50, 5 February 2017 | Updated: 21:50, 5 February 2017]

[sogoesit] 04/2/2017 12:35

For the "insane" amongst us this, at 50x forecast, looks positively pedestrian comparatively:



If you want to go berserk, try BOO at 70x forecast or 140x trailing! ;-0

Yours ever,

Insane Investor

[martywidget] 04/2/2017 10:53

So, here is the long-term charts with the moonphases I mentioned many months ago.





[As an aside, looking at the Gann square of nine we have from the 'Cardinal Cross' and 'Ordinal Cross'....1369,1351,1333,1315,1297,1279,1261... - DYOR etc]

[1pvh] 04/2/2017 09:19

Another tonic water brewed in Northumberland, is Fentimans, which is a 110 year old company,which is also excellent, a close second to Fevertree in my view. Fentimans t/o is about 18m and seems to be growing strong also. Wonder if it would be a good deal Fevertree buying them out?If so I think they could takeover the U.K. Market for starters.I'm a Fevertree shareholder. Can't beat drinking the product knowing it's enriching you!

[hybrasil] 03/2/2017 21:59

If you would like another fevertree try dpp
Trading statement due on 11th feb

[wetdream] 03/2/2017 19:19

Imho while the institutions keep buying, the share price will continue to rise, even though the p/e seems insane.Don't think PIs have got into this yet.
Presumably a take-out is increasingly on the cards.

[luckymouse] 03/2/2017 18:12

Whilst the T/Us remain incredibly hot it will likely keep going

[bookbroker] 03/2/2017 17:47

One of the great shorting opportunities that exist, people buy a gin and tonic to taste the gin, not the effin tonic, there is no way a mixer co. Should be valued on this multiple, that's unless it gets taken over!

[sogoesit] 03/2/2017 13:50

Thanks staverly; was writing as you posted.
Appreciate your thoughts.

[sogoesit] 03/2/2017 13:48

Thanks for feed-back, investorchamp.

I take issue with your statement that analysts forecasts are worthless although I understand your sentiment. The future is not forecastable and forecasts are unlikely to be right. If they do turn out to be right it is more a matter of luck.

However, forecasts, and the numbers attached are information in the market place. They are therefore subject to market players' judgement which can be agreed upon, disagreed or ignored. In short they can be the basis for expectation.
In my view gauging one's own view (expectation) against one's own perception of the market view (market expectation) is critical to arbitrage and thereby profit.

Until prior to the latest trading update EPS forecasts were in the range of 20p for fiscal 2016. Following the update those forecasts have now changed to 23p for 2016, 25p for 2017 and 27p for 2018.
Given the guesstimating about i) growth in revenue, ii) EPS (operational gearing, and iii) the price investors will pay for that growth (P/E) it is almost guaranteed that a forecast will be wrong... but here we are discussing our own estimates!! I.e. we are generating our own expectations!

For example, I agree with your "reasonable" 2017 revenue of about £140m (I think closer £150m) but disagree your EPS. I am guessing EPS for 2016 to be more than 25'ish. and then 2017 of about 33p.
To me, paying 40x EPS that means 1320p now is "fair value" for the current year's earnings. If I put a cushion of upside expectation on this I would buy upto 1650p for two year's hence.
That seems achievable to me... excluding a "tipping point", competition issues or a premium for takeover or sale.

[staverly] 03/2/2017 13:41

Investorschampion ... of course the 26p 2017 EPS is ridiculous, my point was that the FY16e can now be taken seriously as it was made post year end trading update. FWIW, a year ago to the day the FY16 EPS forecast was 14p, having been increased from 12.9p following the usual January "profits warning" (in 2016). So that 14p is now 24.2p.

Sogoesit ... Cenkos are expecting 24.2p for FY16. I haven't seen the source doc but noted that my data provider recently removed all FEVR estimates. Hence my interest when they reappeared due to Cenkos's revised numbers. As IC has pointed out, the current FY17 numbers are anomalous. FWIW, IMO ditto IC's detailed in post above! LTIP doesn't kick in until 2018 thereby FY17 dilution likely to be minimal, corollary being that EPS growth (next year) conservatively around 60%, giving a PE in the early thirties. Hardly expensive, methinks. DYOR