Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 03/2/2017 09:25

nice post staverly.
What does Cenkos, or you, forecast EPS will be for 2016 and 2017 given the operational gearing effect?
From posts here we were, if I recall, assuming around 20-22 for 2016.

[staverly] 02/2/2017 22:11

Mr Market is still playing catch up, methinks. Of course, it is purely subjective, however my reasoning is summarised as follows:

We’ve known since 24 January that their sales for year ended December 2016 were £102m. We can now see what SSEA are pencilling in vis-à-vis bottom line. If Cenkos’s recently revised numbers are to be trusted, which in the chronological scheme of things, they should be, then the operational gearing acceleration is impressive to say the least. Sales +73%, PBT + 110%, EPS + 109% (marginal dilution).

The likely huge increase in ROCI (FY15 around 20%, FY16 I estimate around mid thirties*) strongly suggests that the business is just starting to hit its stride. A sizeable competitive advantage, high barriers to entry, minimal reinvestment requirements, outstanding cash conversion,sound management (owner drivers with modest remuneration), i could go on, collectively suggest to me that this stock is just warming up. From a relative standpoint, i would conservatively think it has to be currently worth 30% more than Boohoo.


Disclosure: key holding


*PAT: 27.8m Average capital base 83m

[wetdream] 02/2/2017 08:55

Not a holder, but love their products!
Like their strategy-but can't believe the mkt valuation.
Probably plenty of momentum to go, as the £13 share price has probably put off the real gamblers.
Good luck all.

[sogoesit] 02/2/2017 08:23

Accumulated a small amount today; feel a bit scary at these valuations now!
Momentum is now with the share price so being on the bandwagon is better than not.
Good luck

[martywidget] 02/2/2017 06:02

Drinks International Annual Bar Report: Tonic Water
01 February, 2017
There’s one brand that gets bar-called more than any other tonic, says Hamish Smith
The tonic gun has long been holstered in the world’s top bars – here, tonic comes in small premium bottles. More likely than any other to come out of the fridge, says our poll of 100 bars, is Fever-Tree....

[bamboo2] 31/1/2017 17:24

Sogo, I've been lucky enough to put the cash into other good risers!

Gla

[sogoesit] 31/1/2017 10:39

Well, your charts warned you... ;-)
1325p is next target now that 1250'ish has been achieved.
Good luck.

[apad] 30/1/2017 13:14

Just put VLG in the epic box, N.
apad

[sogoesit] 30/1/2017 12:57

Thanks for update.
Yes, Fever-Tree attracts comment. Most recent one I had was during a phone call with a broker who said their family drink the tonic (with quinine) because it helps to alleviate muscle cramps. I didn't dissuade her on the effects, whether true or not, but shows the pervasiveness of the name and market reach!
I make a regular trip to a distant supermarket to buy my Madagascan Cola. Hopefully, it will appear in a nearer supermarket soon! ;-)

[neurolodger] 30/1/2017 12:43

APADWhat is VLG board - sorry for my ignorance

[martywidget] 30/1/2017 12:32

Fever-Tree is branching out as it finds there's more room to grow

[apad] 26/1/2017 16:26

s
Check out previous postings on VLG board.
apad

[saturn5] 26/1/2017 15:24

APAD

what else have you got in your portfolio

I know I should have got in FEVR months ago

Now its a bit late

I am now following Brainjuicer BJU

[jerseymike] 26/1/2017 15:15

The problem in America is that it doesn't understand Fevertree yet. Our local grocery store, Publix, only stocks very small amounts of the Tonic, Tonic Light, and Ginger Beer, and is often out of one or more item. They haven't heard of Elderflower or Mediterranean. The company needs to do more education of Liquor and Grocery Store buyers. We, like the previous poster wrote, buy our FT products in bulk from Amazon. Great packaging and fast delivery service. But consumers need to know/learn how good it is before they will buy. Over to you FT - get the Americans educated about your product.

[sogoesit] 26/1/2017 09:39

Broker updates:
24 Jan - Investec - TP - 1300
26 Jan - Berenberg - TP - 1325
26 Jan - Whitman Howard - 1250

[sogoesit] 26/1/2017 09:23

Too early imv.
But that kind of speculation underpins the share price
Good probability that they will sell-out eventually; one of the principals has before in another business.

[finbarot] 26/1/2017 08:50

Any views on this being taken over by Coke Diaggio etc??

[martywidget] 25/1/2017 06:45

Small Cap Value Report (24 Jan 2017) - SPRP, FEVR, EMR, PZC





From the article - "Checking back on my notes on Fevertree, I gave it a neutral rating last July, when the shares were 839p. The shares are up 42% since then, in just six months - so I obviously missed something! To be fair, management missed it too - as results are beating their own forecasts."


LOL!!

[apad] 24/1/2017 16:40

Now in our local COOP!

Blackrock top-sliced.
apad

[hybrasil] 24/1/2017 12:58

In Florida on holiday. We were asked out to drinks by a lovely retired merchant banker. In his house the only tonic was fevertree. They buy it by the caseload from amazon

[apad] 24/1/2017 12:15

TT have a look at the advert for Cola to satisfy the Rum&Coke market in the UK. It is amazing.
USA is a huge market and from a relatively small base the opportunity for growth should be much easier than in the UK.
I'm not sure what currency effects are contained in these numbers, either.
FEVR is a global market brand play, so, yes, I'm disappointed in the USA growth rate - not just by comparison with the UK.
UK growth rate will plateau soonest.
FEVR is 17% of my portfolio (largest holding), so I am always looking for problems, however small, and well hidden under headlines.
apad

[sogoesit] 24/1/2017 10:52

Good trade bamboo; well called.

Agree, terry, £150m within reach for 2017 year.

Good luck!

[terry topper] 24/1/2017 10:38

I suppose you can look at +55% and say that it's disappointing compared to 118% from the UK.
However I would say that the UK is exceptional and it is good to see FEVR taking full advantage of the 'premiumisation' especially in gin. It may be that there has been a massive focus on the UK given it's the home market and given the exceptional growth opportunity.
Even with a bit of slowing in the growth rates across the various world regions, revenues >£150m and eps >35p are quite possible for 2017 - share price should get to £14-15 over the next few months IMO.

[apad] 24/1/2017 10:10

TT:
UK revenue is dominating and the USA income has not increased enough.
The USA income was 23% of the total and is now 20%. Given it was 56 percent of UK income it should be growing faster if they were making a complete success of the US market.
My numbers from Interim and Update:
Revenue Revenue
Interim Update
UK 39% 48%
Europe 33% 26%
USA 23% 20%
RoW 5% 6%

UK 16 34
USA 9 14
Total £m 41 71


apad
ps
Not interested in what the Tintins say.