Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[denziiil1] 15/3/2021 08:52

https://twitter.com/robert__rennie/status/1371327666108780547?s=21

[zho] 15/3/2021 07:59

Iron ore (SCOH1) traded down to a five-week low on Monday in Singapore as it continued to respond to worries about slowing Chinese demand. Despite surging economic activity during the first two months, the rallies, both in iron ore and copper (COPPERMAY21) have reversed as data pointed to Chinese growth being driven by exports but lagging consumer spending. In addition, iron ore has slumped after Chinese authorities pledged to rein in steel production which accounted for a record 56% of global output last year. This in order to curb pollution which is once a major problem in China’s top steel-making city of Tangshan in the Hebei province.

[thags] 14/3/2021 20:22

Yeah I was thinking the same, the 2020 results aren't really going to reveal anything new from the January update. At least net cash is positive so we can look to build a healthy caah position and increase dividends in the long term.
They've probably made enough by now this year to pay off any remaining debt although any dividend announcement will take away from it. Either way the only way is up and if they increase output to 20 mil tonnes then we'll be making some serious money going forwards

[bozzy_s] 14/3/2021 19:56

^ Yes FXPO in net cash as per January update. Hopefully the remaining debt will be paid off within the next year. Then perhaps an increased dividend when debt repayments are finished?

Let's see about 2020 results. Would be great if they made $600m post-tax.

[zho] 14/3/2021 08:45

>>Looking forward to the final results, which should be slightly ahead of the previous year, probably taking the P/E ratio below 7. >>

I would have thought better than that. H1 profit after tax was $250 million. Iron prices were higher in H2, as were premiums for pellets, and a H2 post tax profit of say $350 million would make $600 million (= £430 million) for the year for a PE of just over 5.

>>And when debt is fully repaid sometime in late 2021/2022 >>

AFAICS net debt was $174 million after H1 so FXPO should now have net cash.

Happy to be corrected on either point.


Edit: I'd forgotten that the 12/1/21 TU said that FXPO had "net cash position as at year end of approximately US$4M..."

[bozzy_s] 14/3/2021 02:01

Looking forward to the final results, which should be slightly ahead of the previous year, probably taking the P/E ratio below 7.

The more exciting results will come in September and March for the current year. There's every chance FXPO will make more in H1 2021 as it did in all of 2020.

And when debt is fully repaid sometime in late 2021 / 2022, we could see dividends being upped to 50p+ per share. We won't be trading at £3.50 if that happens!

[kenmitch] 13/3/2021 18:22

bellbottom.

You’re right in that the FXPO share price went it’s own way when Zhegavo negatives hit the price, and as any share does when there’s good or bad news specific to that share. But more recently FXPO has moved in line with the sector. FXPO is one of my favourite shares. Had a great run with it a few years ago from 60p to 300p and then bought back in the market crash last year all no with Evraz and both have had a great run with huge dividends on top. High chance their results will be good and perhaps even stunning. Not long to wait.

[bellbottom] 13/3/2021 14:10

Hi Thags,

Yes I am very positive now. The last few weeks as well have been a great trading opportunity with 20/30p rises and falls - had my finger on the button a few times but chickened out.

Looking forward to good news this week and a final dividend. Maybe a dip afterwards and then further climbs. Seem to remember that the fxpo plan is to reach 20million tonnes pa in next few years which is almost double where we are today.

BB

[thags] 13/3/2021 12:48

That's definitely the case BB so frustrating some of the price movements but I have noticed recently that even with the Mr Z shenanigans in the background the market is starting to realise the true value or at least realising some of the value that is in fxpo. Hopefully results will show zero debt and the cash cow this is even without the ath iron ore price which is just an added bonus at the moment

[bellbottom] 13/3/2021 12:32

Hi Kenmitch,

Ferrexpo has not always followed traditional or expected rises or falls based on ore price or even sector pricing. It has often been frustrating with fxpo as it often moves in the opposite direction with no logic to markets or company fundamentals.
Many on this board have scratched their heads at the movements in price over the last few years.

BB

[kenmitch] 13/3/2021 12:18

It’s likely that on Monday and Tuesday the share will continue to match others in the sector, and up or down probably depends more on iron ore price and share price moves in rest of sector.

[bellbottom] 13/3/2021 11:42

We should see an announcement of final dividend on Monday or Tuesday next week. Ferrexpo did infer that this would happen before the full year results on Wednesday 17th.

Will be interesting to see if both Monday and Tuesday we see a rise in share price on both days in anticipation of excellent results and final dividend.

BB

[bigbigdave] 12/3/2021 07:44

Big jump in Iron Ore prices yesterday, almost back to the highs

[denziiil1] 11/3/2021 19:09

Looks like the market starting to do the calcs Bozzy ;)

[undervaluedassets] 11/3/2021 15:39

I think I got this one right ..

[thags] 11/3/2021 14:31

breakout over

[bigbigdave] 11/3/2021 12:14

Looks like a breakout to me.

[foxy22] 11/3/2021 12:13

Has it broken out yet

[thags] 11/3/2021 11:04

If this doesn't breakout today it will probably dip again tomorrow to around 330 then go up with results and a likely dividend announcement. Tidy swing trade for the brave

[sporazene2] 11/3/2021 10:03

Hi all, i have been picking up some FXPO over the last couple of weeks. looking well poised and 359p looks to be the key level to breakout of. Looking like a good year for Iron Ore pricing, so hoping for a nice return here, GLA

[ouiey1000] 11/3/2021 09:45

Looking good to breakout today

[denziiil1] 11/3/2021 00:01

Bozzy,rerun your calcs with a free cashflow yield of 74% for 21 up from 37% !!https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations-/broker-tips-itv-ferrexpo-experian-pearson--7837663.html

[bozzy_s] 10/3/2021 17:56

Agree with Oxman. Why did the paid-for broker have a target of 180p when the share price was over 300p? Ludicrous.

As for the other brokers, with various targets in the £1 to £2 range. Complete idiots. Not worth taking 2 minutes to look at their websites, never mind paying them for any services.

As noted above, FXPO's pellet price dropped by $10 yesterday, so no surprise to see the shares dip. I added some at 345p - bad timing - but will make a nice profit in the long run.

[bellbottom] 10/3/2021 14:29

Ys, broker upgrades and recommendations can be taken with a pinch of salt. At least with this one it is somewhat aligned with what most of us on this board believe.

Onwards and upwards. Only one week away from full year results on 17th. And anytime now we could see a dividend announcement.

BB