Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[bellbottom] 12/1/2021 11:35

Pretty robust figures. Under the circumstances I have no complaints and look forward to my nice dividend later this month. The only negative looking ahead could be a big drop in iron ore prices. But that is out of our control.

We haven't been in such a strong position since about 2011. Can't believe that is ten years ago now!


BB

[rik shaw] 12/1/2021 11:22

Yes 13.2c. You get 65% due to withholding tax. Detail set out in RNS 5 Jan.

[recut more] 12/1/2021 09:49

Morning all Can anyone advise what the actual divi will be, I have it down as being 13.2c is that right, its ex divi day on the 14th and I'm trying to work out what payment I'll get. Thanks

[igbertsponk] 12/1/2021 09:09

Ne broker interesting - clearly they're not happy with the valuation the market currently attributes.

[denziiil1] 12/1/2021 08:40

Cash build of $333M for H2, 2021 is going to be off the hook. This builds very quickly now. Great, professional company.

[thags] 12/1/2021 07:46

Can someone share the link please, can't seem to find it

[quicky9] 12/1/2021 07:39

What an update. FXPO = cash machine.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/1/2021 07:38

Bit odd! This announcement was scheduled to be made tomorrow!!!

Have they been forced to get it out a day early??????????

[denziiil1] 12/1/2021 07:28

Couldn't agree more bluecycle

[blueclyde] 12/1/2021 07:03

That is one of the best updates I have read. Debt all gone net cash on the balance sheet what a cash machine.

[denziiil1] 10/1/2021 23:21

D/M'd you Bozzy.

[bozzy_s] 10/1/2021 22:24

Yep, a very nice $236.90/t for fxpo

When I first did my 2021 calcs the prevailing price was a head-spinning $190-odd. Now it needs to drop 20% to be back at that ridiculously high price!

And while the share price has climbed nicely, and there will be traders who sell and move on, I think we're just at the beginning of the rally.

At under £4 FXPO's trading on a ridiculous P/E of under 4, and paying one of the biggest dividend yields, if not the biggest, in London.

[denziiil1] 09/1/2021 11:42

Fe65 seaborne $191.20Pellet premium $45.70If you thought FXPO was a cash machine at $105.90/t !

[denziiil1] 08/1/2021 16:59

Should have posted more today bozzy! ;)

[bozzy_s] 07/1/2021 18:03

Denziiil1 thanks for sharing your efforts. Actually I spotted your post on the LSE board earlier. I Googled 'FXPO broker upgrade' in last 24 hours, to see if that caused the jump at 2pm. Nothing in search results re brokers, but your LSE post popped up!

I've had a very simple go at calculating revenue and earnings for 2021. My method is flawed though - it assumes the same operating margin as the previous 5 years - whereas a big increase in commodity price should see a higher margin.

Don't forget to include the pellet premium in your calcs. FXPO definitely sell pellets rather than fines.

[denziiil1] 07/1/2021 17:49

65%Fe $188 today$45.70 pellet premium.Very nice.

[r9505571] 07/1/2021 15:52

Share chart like the Big Dipper today!

[bellbottom] 07/1/2021 15:28

Hi Bozzy,

Looking forward to the 12th January production report. Personally I'd be happy with £5
Can't quite believe it has climbed so fast. I am expecting a dip at some point. It would naturally come after the ex dividend date. And then on to the next climb north. If the ex CEO can sort himself out with the Ukraine courts then it's a double whammy.

BB

[denziiil1] 07/1/2021 15:20

My calcs are that we are at 2x 21 earnings bozzy.

[denziiil1] 07/1/2021 15:19

I have been trying to reasonably value the company, as I am sure most here, and I would be really happy for anyone to comment on my calcs for discrepancies.To note I have left off the pellet premium which is huge, currently standing at $45, and makes an incredible difference to EBITDA when added. However I have gone through company accounts and it does not appear to be reflected in the company sales prices. Ferrexpo have some reports on Premium pellet prices, & it seems the premium spot price to China runs at on average a $20 discount. H1,20 revenue $776M, Fe 65 price $105.90/t, Average C1 cash cost (US$/t) $40.9/t. Generated Underlying EBITDA $352M Jan 21 Fe pellet price $185/t, an uplift from $65/t achieved to $144/t, Based on multiple of 144/65 *$352M =$779M EBITDA for 6 months. =$1560M p/annum=£1155M p/annum For valuation purposesx4=$6.2B or £4.6B shares in issue 589M. Share price £4.6B/589M = £7.80 Final note: standard valuation for similar miners runs at an av of 4 to 6 x EBITDA. So I have chosen to cautiously look at the lower end of the valuation spectrumAlso again without discussions on pellet premiums.

[bozzy_s] 07/1/2021 14:28

Up to the giddy heights of 7 x last year's (2019) earnings, and about 3.5x 2021 earnings!

These would still be cheap at £8.

[thags] 07/1/2021 08:48

Loads of auto sell orders went off or profit taking, dropped down again