Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[muffster] 19/4/2017 13:27

Glad I bought more yesterday

[seroserio] 19/4/2017 13:22

I seem to remember someone posted a link sometime back for a link to iron ore prices. Could anyone post a link please?

[onedb1] 19/4/2017 13:14

Nice bullish harami being formed here. A positive open for tomorrow will indicate the direction to follow for a short term trade

If am correct the peak at about 178 and low at 91.7 ( wave III and wave II ) of the super cycle retraced to near 50% which is good at 136/137 . Which is also bang on the Ascending Triangle breakout to the downside target ( 80% of 40p from about 168p breakout ) So all this jabba jabba indicated to me that unless we head down to 125/128 area which we seem not to ( the 61.8% retrace ) then we may see wave IV being formed nicely and hopefully the road to V starting . V should end at around 200 (1.618 ) or 240 ( 2.618 )extension. I hope it does and fundamentally despite the iron ore drop demand seems to be quite high and cash flow for FXPO is still very impressive . With no debt issues this year and likely no issues next year too. With iron ore finding a $55 to $65 trading range I reckon FXPO will manage quite well and churn good quarterly earnings. With a much reduced debt figure on its balance sheet too.

So I bought some and put my money where my mouth is. Wave Vs can be quite good earners much like Wave III . If interested in the visuals let me know I can post the chart here too now.

[bellbottom] 19/4/2017 08:38

Hi PB,

Of course - forgot about the main driver - iro ore price. Up a couple of percent today so far and FXPO follows suit.
Looking forward to a real surge in Chinese demand and Trump to live up to his pledges and start major projects in US to help stabilise and lift prices higher.

Not for the faint hearted. At some point I will be happier to move all my money into managed funds and let growth be a much more slower but stable experience.

Good luck

[pbutterworth1] 18/4/2017 18:15

Bellbottom - agree with all of above but you forgotten the main one - The iron ore price trend looks distinctly risky in the short term. I left big time this morning (£150k) and have not regretted it. Still like FXPO and will be back

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 17:37

There may be no good reason but there are certainly reasons behind it - just wish I knew exactly what they were.
Choose from this list - one, some or all factors:

Real Brexit after false Brexit.
North Korea Nuclear situation.
Turkey political situation.
Ongoing Syria.
Trump effect - loose cannon.
Russia generally.
Russia specifically in relation to Ukraine.
UK General Election.
Strong pound.
Good old sentiment.
General worldwide uncertainty.
Feeling of gloom and doom (my own personal factor thrown in for good measure)

Are we looking at a falling knife or a fantastic buying opportunity? I've absolutely no idea.

[telbap] 18/4/2017 16:35

This is getting seriously hammered today with no good reason.

[telbap] 18/4/2017 14:52

Totally over do E, selling some other holdings to buy more.

[general george] 18/4/2017 14:33

I have bought in here.
Even if iron ore is $55 av. For the year, then cash generation is huge.

At average output of 2,600k tonnes per quarter.
Cost of extraction $30.

$55 - 30 x 2600k= $65 mill

So would be $260mill in the year.

Could be close to debt free come end of the year

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 13:55

I blame Theresa May - pound up, markets down. June 8th General Election date!!

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 13:35

Looks like the pendulum might be stuck. Not swinging back in the other direction.

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 11:22

Sorry for the translation. Just some general Ferrexpo tax data from its various mining interests in Ukraine. Translated from Interfax.com.ua

Eristov Mining and Processing Plant (GOK), part of the group Ferrexpo (EGOK, Ferrexpo Yeristovo Mining, FYM), in 2016 increased its payments of taxes and duties to the budgets of all levels by 16% compared with 2015 - up to UAH 176.7 million (151.9 million USD).

According to a press release Ferrexpo on Tuesday with reference to the structure of the enterprise payments, for the reporting period Eristov GOK listed more than 93.7 million UAH to the state budget, the regional - more than 43.7 million USD, local - more than 39.3 million USD (53%, 25% and 22% respectively).

In this case, it states that payments to the budget Gorishnii smoothly totaled 29.1 million USD, strike dead - 3.9 million UAH Dmitrovka - 6.3 million USD.

The company has paid for eight months of the environmental tax more than 17.2 million USD, PIT - more than 16 million USD, other taxes and fees - more than 0.2 million USD.

For subsoil use EGOK paid more than 110.5 million USD, which is 45% more than in 2015 (76.3 million USD), the rent for the land amounted to more than 1.1 million UAH, sublease of land - more than 17.3 million UAH .

In addition, a single social contribution of the enterprise paid to the tax authorities for the Pension Fund of Ukraine needs, amounted to more than 28.8 million USD.

The company paid an environmental tax for 12 months of 2016 - more than 22.4 million USD, personal income tax - a 25.1 million USD, other taxes and fees - more than 205.8 thousand. UAH.

Eristovky mine was commissioned in 2008. It has a license for the production of iron ore before 2049. GOK is a major new crude iron ore in the CIS, developed after the collapse of the USSR. Currently EGOK produces about 15 million tons of ore per year - at Poltava GOK.

Ferrexpo - Swiss iron mining company with assets in Ukraine. The main activity is the production and export of high-quality iron ore pellets used in steel production.

Ferrexpo Group is the largest manufacturer and exporter of pellets used among countries. THE USSR. Current production assets - Poltava GOK and Eristov.

In 2016 it produced 11.2 million tons of iron ore pellets.

The main customers are steel mills from Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany and other European countries as well as from China, India, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 11:13

Anyone any idea why such a large drop today so far? Far exceeds iron ore price drop and haven't heard any 'bad news' on the horizon?
It may just be a general retrace which usually happens after good news and also divi payment date passed?!
I am hoping it will soon stabalise and then start a slow climb back up towards 170 and above. But hey, what do I know? After all these years its still a mystery to me.
You win some, you lose some, you check your figures at the end of a decade and find that one cancels out the other. Sorry, having a pessi day today.

[pbutterworth1] 18/4/2017 09:35

...but probably not forever...

[onedb1] 18/4/2017 09:17

Same here T Ready to pounce .

[telbap] 18/4/2017 09:10

Will be buying more if we hit 140

[lateralam] 18/4/2017 09:04

Over 17% down in a week.

[bellbottom] 18/4/2017 08:48

Iron ore down about 4% - Ferrexpo following that downward trend.
If ore keeps dropping then FXPO will follow.

[onedb1] 13/4/2017 14:04

Just to put iron ore in perspective last I checked earlier today it was at $71 .

This is much higher than the H2 2016 average. And much higher than $55 to make things profitable for Ferrexpo , with debt worries for this year and I suspect next year too probably taken care of now, ie cash pile should already be sufficient for this year and already helping next year's deadline . Hence Moody's upgrade of our corporate debt.

But hopefully another drop will help me pick up these shares an what I perceive to be value again. Sell chaps please ;-)

[onedb1] 13/4/2017 13:59

I will buy on support here. The breakout target , or about 80% of it , should coincide very much to where the drop will end and it will end with a RSI oversold level.

Bit of luck doesn't hurt here as I see this an opportunity to buy sub 6 P/E ratio and don't see how this first quarter hasn't been anything but great for the finances.

I equally suspect that production is partly hedged anyway so whilst iron ore dropped from its highs its still much higher than in h2 2015.
I so hope that price keeps on lowering to buy cheaper stock . Greedy as I am lol .
That 175 market a strong resistance level. Mark it down for the future as that will be the level we need to pass to head for the 200s.

[lateralam] 13/4/2017 12:48

Yes, wondering myself. All my recent profits nearly eroded!

[bellbottom] 13/4/2017 12:15

Not a nice day so far today. That's about an 11% drop in a week. Explanations anyone or is it purely down to post divi day and iron ore prices.