Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[mustau] 27/6/2017 15:08

Well done all for holding.

[telbap] 27/6/2017 08:30

Think we will bust 200p today

[mustau] 27/6/2017 07:54

Given the way miners have behaved of late this has held very well.
Cant see news contributing to this.

[telbap] 24/6/2017 20:58

JJ......same sentiments here to.The geo political situation worries me greatly, the old soviet bear has been sleeping for some considerable time, it is very possible for him to wake up and decide to start annexing more of his neighbouring countries.......the sky could also fall in.....Let's see, done quite well from this since late last year too, completely out in the 170s and 180,s.

[jjhbev] 22/6/2017 14:46

Hi all

As of earlier this week I am now entirely out of Fxpo having been selling over the past couple of months. I had an extremely large position having been here for approx. 15 months

Anyone who has read my posts over time will have seen :-
a) They tend to be a bit long – sorry!
b) I have felt that as 2016 progressed and 2017 started Fxpo was significantly undervalued
c) I hold the view that the debt position is no longer a company life threatening problem. This is a view I still hold

The reason I have sold is that with Fe around $55 per ton I no longer feel that Fxpo is undervalued. In fact, when so many commodity companies have been and are taking such a kicking even when their key commodities still command relatively decent prices I cannot understand Fxpo’s rise into the 190s. Not complaining – just a bit baffled!

I do think that the upcoming half year results will still be very strong – due in particular to the stellar Q1 and the level of pellet premiums achieved at the start of the year. The profitability should be very good and this should also be reflected in the company’s liquidity (which should provide a very healthy balance leading into next year’s bond repayment).

However I have 2 primary concerns with regard to where the share price goes from here:-

1) It would appear that the production levels currently being achieved by Fxpo are down on last year. This is understandable given the plant upgrades being initiated but they will impact the results due to “reduced”; sales (which was a particular shame given the prices in Q1) but also increased unit costs as fixed costs are spread over reduced units of production.

2) The Iron Ore Price.
With production/sales of over 11m tons pa a move of $10 in the iron ore price moves Fxpo’s profit by $110+m. The current iron ore price is now significantly below the second half of last year’s level – and there are several voices predicting further declines. [It does have to be said however that there were many similar voices saying the same thing this time last year!]. Should prices drop further – and pellet premiums perhaps decline – the share price really could/should take a big hit.
Conversely, should iron recover appreciably above $60 per ton and the company be able to confidently forecast production above 1m tons per month an share price well in excess of £2 would be justified.

Up until April this year IMO the odds of upside in the share price massively outweighed the possibility of downside. For me, this is now an each way bet – and that is even without factoring in the possibility of geopolitical events. I have had an excellent run here and am now content to be on the sidelines.

The good news for any continuing holders is that I am utter rubbish when it comes to timing my sales – and so you could well be about to see the start of a new bull run in iron ore! Also, if “the world is back from its holidays” by the time of the results and in risk on mode you could see quite some upside from here. Or not as the case may be!

All the very best – and I may well be back (possibly sooner rather than later)

[bellbottom] 22/6/2017 13:07

A lot of sideways drift and backsliding - technical terms - not sure what's driving price at the moment. Generally I am out - I did sell all fxpo then bought back for a quick 24 hour profit take. I'd rather be holding generally, but whilst I am unclear on where this is going short term, I may continue on the sidelines or try my luck when there's a big drop, hoping for the usual swing back upwards.
I am just wondering if this will pick up the week before 2nd quarter report on the 6th July and then fall back again, unless of course the report data exceeds all expectations. It's a difficult call in the run up to the 6th July.

[telbap] 19/6/2017 19:00

Bell....I firmly believe that we will see 250 plus once the issue of debt is out of the picture. I feel the recent spike to 190 plus and the now gradual return there is centred around market confidence. We maybe no longer tied to the iron ore price, it will always sway us price wise, but with less and less dramatic effect. Look where the share price was 4 or 5 years back, this makes the current share price look poor, considering al we have is debt we are rapidly paying off....no in my mind we are going to head back to prevous highs of 4 and 5£

[bellbottom] 15/6/2017 11:12

I am still confused as to last week's surge in price up to the high 190's in view of the iron ore price and the longer term predictions for a general lull in price in a range of $45 to $55 per ton through 2017 and 2018.
At $45 per ton, how should this accurately be reflected in the FXPO share price?
I know there are other factors involved and FXPO has the advantage of selling a greater proportion of the 65% FE pellet.
Are they still on course to be debt free/cash positive in 2019?
2nd Q production report on 6th July - that should be interesting.

[bellbottom] 14/6/2017 15:16

Haven't seen Onedb for a while. Has he deserted this forum?

[gilesgraves] 12/6/2017 15:41

I know what you mean bellbottom. Its hard not to have loyalty to a share thats been so good. I will definitely be investing in FXPO in the future...but it will be at a price I understand

[bellbottom] 12/6/2017 09:14

I found it quite tough after so many month of holding, but sold off my entire FXPO this am.
With so much uncertainty I decided to play safe and take profits - Also sold off my entire SXX - both of my major shareholdings - now sitting on the sidelines and waiting and watching.

I've no idea what's going to happen short term. I hope to back into both shares in the near future - certainly with SXX, a long way to rise over the next few years.
FXPO - it's going to be judging the next climb upwards.

Good luck all.

[telbap] 12/6/2017 06:06

Giles and bellbottom......closed my SB at 181 or so....my feeling was the same as gilrs.....overheated...lets just see what todays action is.....the market will still open tomorrow......

[gilesgraves] 11/6/2017 10:28

Also, just to say the chart looks absolutely awesome. If it matched the trajectory of 2008 to 2011 that would be delightful!

[gilesgraves] 11/6/2017 10:23

Yes totally agree. Im doing some research this morning and I could see this having a retrace. JP Morgan have lowered their forecast from 195 to 180. Most of the forecasts are much lower but they have always been pessimistic on FXPO throughout its rise so thats not really an indicator. Iron ore is doing dreadfully. It could have bottomed out though but we are so far away from what was parity with FXPO share price. If FXPO had followed the same path as iron ore the Share price would be 130p by now. We have no major news as far as I can see. The weaker pound would have helped as FXPO's income is mainly in dollars. I see a huge buy was registered after hours on the 9th of over £800k at £1.95. I wonder whether that has been filled over the last few days and whether it is in fact a Buy...If it was in fact a Sell then Monday could be the start of a downtrend to more 'normal' levels. Thinking aloud and would welcome a view better informed than mine from others reading this.

[bellbottom] 11/6/2017 09:54

Hi Giles,

Very odd indeed? Iron ore dropped right off and we have consistently followed that trend unless hit by either bad or good news to buck the trend. Something behind it no doubt, but whether it's one specific aspect or a combination of a few, I have no idea.
Possibly some news on the horizon where there's been a 'leak' and news to follow after the associated rise has happened?
If there is news to follow then I'd expect it to drop off. But all guesswork without specifics to back it up. I'd be interested in Onedb's opinion as a chartist? Also, any other views from anyone else.

I've held through all the recent movement but when and if it hits £2.00 then I too feel that there will be some hefty profit taking and a big fall back. I may sell up at that point. Been in since 33p so can't complain. But, if a drop back after hitting £2.00 then I'd be tempted to buy back in lower, depending on iron ore price and other news.

Of course there's the brexit stuff and Tory disarray to add to the pot.
Anyone's guess what happens next......unless?.....

[gilesgraves] 11/6/2017 09:38

I have completely missed this latest rise! I stayed away from FXPO because the Iron Ore price was falling. FXPO has completely bucked the trend of following that, and I have been out since about 170p. Well done to everyone who has enjoyed this rise. I see 200 as a bit of a psychological boundary (see price action at £1 for comparison). With iron ore prices still low / falling I just can't risk getting in here at this point. I very much hope you holders enjoy a continued rise but Im in only if it falls back to something sensible that is in line with iron ore. If I am missing something obvious that backs up this rise then please do tell me but otherwise Im confident this is overbought. What do I know though - Ive clearly been wrong to stay away from this for the last month or so!

[mark_jm] 09/6/2017 15:16

Whats promoting the current rise above 180p. I dont have a link to the spot price of pellets, is the pellet price rising?

[its the oxman] 09/6/2017 10:46

Chart suggests 210p to me. Hope so anyway.

[thorpematt] 06/6/2017 21:39

Yes go with the flow. FTSE 250 off fairly big today. The dips are nice buy in points IMO.


Election is really close on the horizon of course. A Tory majority see a nice rising tide but the flip side wouldn't be pretty.

[telbap] 06/6/2017 11:25

Thought we would be leaving the 160s for good, did mot expect more than a technical dip.....harva, my monitor is a sea of red, so have to expect it i guess.

[telbap] 01/6/2017 11:35

Ok so boom again.

[telbap] 01/6/2017 09:57

Slow and steady wins the race.

[telbap] 31/5/2017 19:07

All of yesterday's gain and more gone.....lol!

[telbap] 31/5/2017 11:39

Not even one day in the 180s for us to enjoy!!!....this has to be one of the most volatile stocks I have ever held, every day is another exciting swing.