Falk IS. Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[edjge2] 03/7/2012 21:52

off topic Falklands, also have bpc around your price. bpc seems to have based above that. Wonder what price action will be here with new shares?

[eburne1960] 03/7/2012 18:57

I'm not sure they did sell it cheaply. ISTR that the BPC deal massively diluted existing FGML holders, so as FKL sold out well before the deal was announced, they probably did alright. Besides, they still made a nice profit, and what would be the point of a Falklands company speculating in oil in the Bahamas??

[mr hangman] 03/7/2012 17:07

Yes & who used to have a stake in Falkland Gold & Minerals..?,until they
sold that cheaply

[eburne1960] 03/7/2012 17:00

The "tiny" explorer, by the way, is Bahamas Petroleum - formerly Falkland Gold & Minerals.

[dicko80] 03/7/2012 16:53

Falklands players on the cusp of something huge

Stand by for action! The Falkland Islands could be making headlines again very shortly. And this time, it won't be Cameron and Kirchner who are dominating the headlines.

On 11 May BORDERS & SOUTHERN (BOR), one of the intrepid band of Falkland oil explorers, announced that it had spudded its Stebbing well. "The well duration", said Borders, "is estimated to be 49 days". 49 days from 11 May takes us to 29 June – so any day now we should be getting the result of this well. And the whole Falklands story should take another step forward.

If you have been a Penny Sleuth subscriber for a while, you will know that I keep a watchful eye over the Falklands and take note of every rumble and roar. Just this year some of the Falkland's oil explorers have seen share prices take a significant jump.

The most notable success so far has been Rockhopper's Sea Lion discovery of 1.3bn barrels – however, later on I shall tell you about a discovery which could prove to be up to three times this find!

While President Cristina Kirchner and David Cameron were squaring up at the recent G20 meeting and Argentinian officials brandishing our prime minister a 'colonialist' for dismissing Kirchner's call for talks on the sovereignty of the islands, the oil industry is carrying on pretty much regardless.

Tensions fraught between Cameron and Kirchner

Let me deal with the political situation first. In respect of her demands over the Falklands Kirchner has shot herself squarely in the foot by the sudden decision to nationalise the Argentinian interests of the Spanish oil company Repsol.

Kirchner accused Repsol of a failure to invest in the country's oil industry, but this seemed little more than a trumped up excuse for an act of piracy that made Kirchner no friends outside of her own country and her limited cabal of South American sympathisers. In her attempts to enlist international support for her claims to the Falklands this act of high handedness can only backfire.

Cameron, meanwhile, is sticking to his line that the Falkland Islanders should be allowed to make up their own mind about their political future. There will be a referendum next year on the issue and the chances of the islanders committing their future to the Argentinian flag are very remote indeed.

Rich opportunity for the leading Falkland players

The Repsol affair has upset Spain, and now Argentina has French and Italian interests to contend with. This follows last week's news that Edison Spa, an Italian utility owned by France's EDF has farmed into the licences of FALKLAND OIL & GAS (FOGL). Edison will receive a 25% interest in Falkland Oil's northern licences and a 12.5% interest in the southern licences off the archipelago in return for paying drilling costs of $50m and a separate cash payment of $40m.

This gives FOGL some useful financial ammunition to further its exploration programme and it expects to spud its first well on the giant Loligo prospect in July. With mean prospective resources of 4.7bn barrels of oil, this is one of the biggest prospects drilled anywhere in recent years, and a successful find would turn the Falklands into a major oil province overnight. To put it in context this is more than three times the size of ROCKHOPPER's (RKH) Sea Lion find in the north Falklands Basin, which has a best estimate of 1.3 billion barrels of oil in place.

Rockhopper, though, does have the advantage of a confirmed find, the only one to date in the region. According to an independent assessment by Gaffney Cline & Associates, development of the Sea Lion field has a 90% chance of going ahead. On this basis, and after applying a 10% discount rate, it has been valued at £2.2bn, which is a long way north of Rockhopper's current £733m stock market valuation.

This gap reflects lingering doubts that the oil will ever be lifted, and what Rockhopper needs is a partner to put up much of the considerable amount of money needed to develop the field. Rockhopper has opened a data room to prospective partners and Chairman Dr Pierre Jungels comments that 'whilst the location of our acreage has prevented some companies from being able to participate, I have been very pleased by the quality of those that are doing so.' Participation in the Rockhopper venture by a reputable oil partner would endorse the region

The Falkland Islands oil business could dominate the news

Another business that is clearly betting on a favourable outcome is FALKLAND ISLAND HOLDINGS (FKL). It has raised £8m, most of which will be spent on the Falklands where the company owns a number of sites on the outskirts of Stanley which are suitable for the development of a warehouse park for rental to oilfield services companies.

Anticipating an influx of oil men, it is also planning to invest in housing, offices, retail operations and its Land Rover dealership, and it has signed a joint venture with Southampton-based Trant Construction Limited.

So despite the sound and fury of the political debate, the oil business of the Falkland Islands is proceeding apace. In the next few weeks it could take a major leap forward. Results from Border & Southern's Stebbing well and FOGL's Loligo, along with news of a partner for Rockhopper and the Falklands will be in the news for other reasons that have nothing to do with the anniversary of the war.

This tiny explorer could be sitting on 4bn barrels of untapped oil

If you haven't managed to watch this presentation yet – I highly recommend you take some time out to watch it. This could be one of the biggest oil finds of the century, and more importantly... not many people are aware of it.

[eburne1960] 03/7/2012 16:49

Just checked your twitter site out, bit disappointed no tweets from Philip Schofield or Stephen Fry.

[falklands] 03/7/2012 15:02

Arrr but under that stuff there are nutters that have called results pre RNS time after time, others like gk etc are mad freeman types.

Takes time to work out which !

[mr hangman] 03/7/2012 14:31

I don't personaly use Twitter, i find it's just for celebity stalking trolls

[togglebrush] 03/7/2012 12:01

Open offer over subscribed

RNS extract

Open Offer of 619,837 shares has been fully subscribed . Valid applications have been received for 1,601,914 Offer Shares, being 258 per cent. of the amount available.

Basic entitlement applications for the 619,837 shares available amount to 487,393 shares, whilst excess applications for the 132,444 shares not applied for total 1,114,521 shares. As a result excess applications will be scaled back as provided in the Circular posted to shareholders on 14 June 2012 ("the Circular").

By my calc

You should get your basic application

Excess application will depend on if you have gone through a stockbrokers nominal account. But roughly 11.9% of what you applied for looks like the target.

[dicko80] 03/7/2012 08:17

Kingtrader ‏@gking72

#BOR #FLK are FKL stake building in BOR before RNS.....? Wink

[eburne1960] 02/7/2012 13:55

The offer formally closed at 11am this morning, and the shares start trading on Wednesday, so I would guess the results of the offer will appear later today or tomorrow.

[togglebrush] 02/7/2012 13:50

It is not totally clear of closing date for Open Offer etc, But my broker required my instructons some time ago. The take up of Open Offer may now be known but not before the issue of the latest RNS

From Circular

Latest time and date for depositing Open Offer Entitlements into CREST 3.00 p.m. on 27 June 2012
'
Latest time and date for splitting Application Forms (to satisfy bona fide
market claims only) 3.00 p.m. on 28 June 2012
'
Latest time and date for receipt of completed Application Forms and
payment in full under the Open Offer or settlement of relevant CREST
instruction (as appropriate) 11.00 a.m. on 2 July 2012
'
Expected date of Admission and commencement of dealings in
Subscription Shares and Offer Shares38.00 a.m. on 4 July 2012
'
CREST accounts to be credited with Offer Shares 8.00 a.m. on 4 July
'
Expected date of Admission and commencement of dealings in
Subscription Shares and Offer Shares 8.00 a.m. on 4 July 2012
'
This was amended after re-read of the PDF

[eburne1960] 02/7/2012 13:39

Agree on the derisking, GOM, though I'd be surprised if the open offer is undersubscribed as: 1.there weren't many shares being offered to start with, 2. the offer price is now at a decent discount to the market price, and 3. I would guess some shareholders (like me) have gone for an excess allocation.

There are some other metals in the FI, although Falkland Gold & Minerals had a look a few years back and didn't find any commercial quantities.

[gunsofmarscapone] 02/7/2012 13:03

No, its a rational process for anyone to derisk on a wildcat. My other idea is that the open offer may not have been fully subscribed to, accordingly FKL may have decided to liquidate some fogl.

Altogether OK from my point of view, invest some cash for the very long term in much lower risk operations.

The upside to Fkl with a HC discovery of commercial proportion is astronomical, we could easily be looking at a special div in addition to asset acquisition.

Its not just about oil and gas, some rather interesting metals exist in the FI also. Visit the BGS for futher info!

[eburne1960] 02/7/2012 11:53

FKL couldn't sell any shares before 31st May without the approval of FOGL's brokers. You could argue if they had sold when Loligo spuds that it showed they didn't have confidence in the prospect.....

[mr hangman] 02/7/2012 10:52

Don't worry Chris, they done it before, can't wait to get their mits on any
bit of cash they can

[falklands] 02/7/2012 10:43

Frankly I thought fkl where not allowed to sell any shares before loligo results I read on one of the past fkl RNS.

Just hope fkl has not sniffed something we do not know about or did they just read advfn spanner heads deramps and panic like muppets ?

[mr hangman] 02/7/2012 10:37

Agreed Chris, it only need BOR, to come up with something decent on Stebbing
& they could of been selling for 120 plus

[falklands] 02/7/2012 10:21

Not sure why they did not sell at spud time of loligo

[mr hangman] 02/7/2012 09:29

By the looks of things they must of sold out for around 86p, a 100 per cent
profit in just a few months, they must of planned to sell a while ago,
why did they not sell in the 90's a couple of weeks aqo when turnover in
FOGL was large ? ho well whats another 100/- when you have just raised 10m
cheaply..

[togglebrush] 02/7/2012 07:43

SALE of part of FOGL holding ... see RNS
raising cash to develop the core business

[edjge2] 27/6/2012 09:54

ifthecap....
Managed to miss the alert for the offer, saw account last night! But this am. put in late application. They have stock so hopefully successful. I remember IPR where price went up during one of these open offers and was a good omen. Dilution would be expected to reduce price, yes?
Argies may cause a blip but with another oil strike likely imo FKL likely to run higher.