Falk IS. Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[falklands] 19/6/2012 08:52

I do recall eis notes page 197 saying higher oil seeps PAH at loligo than any other prospect surveyed and on old cpr fogl can differeniate between brine and hydro on loligo.


Frankly borders said the same on their eis about oil seeps lets hope stebbing can prove the concept regarding OIL !

[falklands] 19/6/2012 08:47

what do you mean seen the oil kitchen in loligo from the 2d infill and class III avo ?

[mr hangman] 19/6/2012 08:46

Disagree Falks, im sure i've seen an Oil Kitchen in Loligo

[falklands] 19/6/2012 08:37

Well Mr H hopefully borders is derisking loligo from the deeper source rock but agree in this game you never know. Fogl prospects have always been higher risk than borders ie no 4 way closures or fold belts.

I think the gas chimneys above loligo and my agm notes tell me no duster but commercial gas highly likely. (hoping oil in one of the higher zone stacks)

scotia looks gas for sure at deeper depth.

[mr hangman] 19/6/2012 08:17

Hi, Mike the only thing you should be concerned about is, if FOGL have 2
dusters, as we only hold 4.4 per cent,price should only fall to the
open offer price, but think of all the other prospects we have going
on here

[mike111d] 19/6/2012 07:56

So no considered opinions about prospects here, which is slightly concerning.

I will watch the trades for the next day or two and then decide but if it keeps rising then I would be silly not to accept the offer I guess.

[ifthecapfits] 19/6/2012 07:26

the rise continues.

[mike111d] 18/6/2012 17:36

Considering participating in the placing, anything in particular that I should be concerned about?

[mr hangman] 18/6/2012 16:06

21 per cent COS on Loligo according to Merchant Sec's..mmm

[mr hangman] 18/6/2012 15:49

Yes i'm taking mine up, be interesting how this goes tommorrow, i've a feeling
there are a few buyers sitting on the sidelines, thinking that the price will
fall back a bit, a couple of days after the IC tip, think they could be in for
a nasty shock

[ifthecapfits] 18/6/2012 15:40

Details of the open offer showing in my Selftrade account - think I'll take mine up LOL! :)

[ifthecapfits] 18/6/2012 13:04

Certainly a bit more life in it today. Suspect we might see a bit more blue before the day is out looking at the trades.

[mr hangman] 18/6/2012 12:16

To buy a decent amount now, you will be paying over 400, but how cheap could
that look in a few years..

[mr hangman] 18/6/2012 12:10

That's one of the problems here, the stocks very illquid, lots of investors
would love to buy in but can only get small amounts of stock, so some don't
bother, not sure i know the answer to the problem..

[ifthecapfits] 18/6/2012 12:06

Quite a large spread though. All seem to be small buys - would be intresting to see what would happen if we got strong sustained buying.

[mr hangman] 18/6/2012 09:31

Yes, a few more new investors coming in, and who can blame them, joining
the biggest shovel & pick story in the last 50 years

[ifthecapfits] 18/6/2012 09:26

Useful info. and nice to see the share price relative strength continuing.

[tradesmarter] 17/6/2012 18:15

copy of my post to iii thought you may like a read

Agreed for me I see around 320 stop area and short term resistance will be "blown away" by any signifcant discoveries .. 320 likely support if no significant immedaite discoveries.....ahead of news then T/A may give guidance for entry and exit opportunitites?....I'd say it's a good buy on a retrace after the press tip markups, but would expect 350 area to provide big buying support (best risk/reward case, would be entry near trendline and stops below 200 day)...anyway I've done a chart on probably a non-chartable stock when news comes!



IC VIEW
tips and ideas Falkland Islands Holdings PLC (uk:FKL)

Speculative

Low RISK
.
Bull points
•Share price could double in a matter of months
•Strong trading in core business
•Downside limited to 20 per cent
•Solid dividend track record

Bear points
•Falklands oil has a history of disappointment
•The 'Malvinas' issue never far away

With drilling scheduled to start imminently on one of the most exciting oil prospects in the Falkland Islands, a steady support services conglomerate that is celebrating its 160th anniversary, Falkland Island Holdings , looks like an interesting play for investors who want a low-risk gamble with the potential for huge returns. Throw in an excellent dividend record, and shares in Falkland are the ideal way to play the black gold rush on the South Atlantic islands.

Oil and gas exploration in the Falkland Islands has always been a risky prospect due to the isolation of the location and the perilous drilling depths. Up until now, the story has been more damp squib than bonanza, with a lot of expensive muddy holes and only the Sea Lion discovery looking viable. But that's partly why Falkland's shares offer such a good opportunity. They come with an ultra-safe dividend, which currently yields 3.2 per cent, while shareholders wait patiently for a gusher. What's more, the waiting could soon be over.

Falkland Island Holdings has a 4.4 per cent stake in Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL). That may not sound like much, but the size of the potential discoveries in the waters off the Falkland Islands make it mouthwatering. FOGL is due to start drilling on two prospects in the East Falklands called Loligo and Scotia, where there are estimates of 4.7bn and 1.1bn barrels of oil equivalent respectively. Analysts at broker Merchant Securities think these prospects are substantially larger than elsewhere in the Falkland Islands and success at both wells will make FOGL worth 2,488p a share, 26 times its current level. That would make Falkland's interest worth £350m or 3,768p a share. Exploration is a tricky business, though, and Merchant's analysts put the chances of success at 21 per cent for Loligo and 17 per cent for Scotia. That reduces the possible value of Falkand's interests to 606p, still approaching twice the current share price.

Besides, remove the FOGL holding - valued at £13.6m or 96p a share - from the balance sheet and that still leaves 226p a share in net assets, and analysts at broker WH Ireland reckon those assets are really worth 372p.

That's because Falkland has some solid operations. Results for 2011-12 beat analysts' expectations, with a steady performance from the core retail business on the islands, despite poor weather and the continual effect of the 'Malvinas factor' that deters tourists from taking a cruise route via the Falklands. In the UK, the Portsmouth ferry operation was resilient. The star showing came from the Momart fine art logistics business, which benefited from the booming global art market to report a 81 per cent increase in underlying profits.


SHARE TIP SUMMARY:

Falkland Island Holdings presents a nice opportunity for those who want to play the region's oil boom but can't stomach the wild price swings that accompany oil exploration. True, the shares trade at a premium to the support services sector and, if no oil is found, the price is likely to fall to the sector average, but that only implies a drop of 20 per cent to around 280p. That makes them a low-cost option on oil discovery with limited downside. Buy.

SHARES MAG ARTICLE

Falkland Islands braced for oil and gas frenzy
INVESTOR SPECULATION THAT Falkland Oil & Gas
(FOGL:AIM) will make an imminent discovery at its Loligo prospect
will have positive implications for 4.4% shareholder Falkland Islands
Holdings (FKL:AIM). Buy the £33 million
market cap conglomerate as a discovery
will increase the investment's value and
boost demand for its retail outlets, property
portfolio and infrastructure services in the
Falklands over time.
Drilling is set to commence at Loligo
in July, dependent on getting the rig from
Borders & Southern (BOR:AIM) after its
April discovery of gas condensate, a product
which sells at a premium to Brent Crude oil.
Rockhopper (RKH:AIM) has already made several discoveries on
its Sea Lion complex in the Falklands. Assuming Falkland Oil & Gas
can fi nd a strategic partner, production could start between 2016
and 2018.
All this points to the near-term
development of an oil and gas services
industry, creating signifi ant opportunities
for Falkland Island Holdings and its
multiple interests in the region. The £33
million cap has planning permission to build
350 houses and last week (6 Jun) created
a construction joint venture.
Shares says: BUY Falkland Islands
Holdings at 357.5p.

No position(may enter soon) and as always dyor
Regards
T/s

[gwr7] 16/6/2012 09:44

Momart and Portsmouth were surely bought for diversification purposes. They've served their purpose while the North and South basins were being derisked. I agree now would be a good time to sell as through the placing the company has declared its committment to this new oil frontier.

[togglebrush] 16/6/2012 05:43

Tipped yesterday, with video, by Questor in Telegraph online version
'

[mr hangman] 15/6/2012 13:37

Very good point Mr E, If they can make a profit on the Auction buisness &
the Harbour..why not
It will save us from more dilutions at low prices