Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[p5tvr] 22/9/2022 08:22

herm did you manage to average down?...

[hermana3] 22/9/2022 08:09

Philip is a serious negogiator and Joseph P. Nally's fundraising ability at Cenkos is legendary so we have a great duo to react to Tamboran's opportunistic move. Bryan Sheffield is a key player in Beetaloo now too and his plans have not been made public so far. All to play for now for a share that has been largely dormant for last 4 years...

[hermana3] 21/9/2022 17:55

Yes the volume yesterday was a wee bit surprising alright...

[ohisay] 21/9/2022 14:46

And they must be kicking themselves today ..Plenty of life left in this old dog .

[ohisay] 21/9/2022 08:51

They are doing what I would expect them to do .They could probably find the cash (40mUSD)to buy out Origins stake plus the royalty, but would find it almost impossible to finance ongoing full field development costs without a big bucks partner.And they would need that partners expertise for the ongoing fraccing development and strategy anyway.
And given the giveaway price Origin accepted it seems that partner wasn't around then and likely isn't now.

But never say never and besides they can't be seen to be taking the knee so early to Tamboran .
Lots of stale bulls exiting yesterday I thought ..

[hermana3] 20/9/2022 18:18

Agree it is a long shot and hard to know if they are very serious about such a venture...

[loganair] 20/9/2022 18:13

Highly unlikely FOG will be able to raise anywhere near enough money to buy out Origin.

[hermana3] 20/9/2022 17:57

Could FOG raise this money or is the market dreaming?

[melody9999] 20/9/2022 09:10

p5tvr filtered. just glanced at his previous posts. just unnecessary

[zxie] 20/9/2022 08:58

INSP shares jump soon

[p5tvr] 20/9/2022 08:48

herm i see that you ONLY hold here and PVR,Have you EVER made ANY MONEY holding both these over the MANY MANY YEARS you've been invested ?
You would've been better off letting a monkey pick 2 stocks for you!! LOL

[hermana3] 20/9/2022 08:19

Share in the toilet as market fears huge fund raise?

[hermana3] 20/9/2022 08:17

So A$140m needed to buy out Origin. Joe Nally will need to put on his thinking cap toute suite...

[mirabeau] 20/9/2022 08:14

Origin Divests Beetaloo Interest Falcon’s Beetaloo JV partner, Origin Energy has announced its intention to exit all of its upstream exploration permits as part of a strategic decision to focus on cleaner energy and customer solutions. As part of this strategy, Origin has agreed to divest 100% of its interest in the Beetaloo Basin to a JV of Tamboran Resources and Bryan Sheffield for an upfront consideration of A$60m and a 5.5% royalty on future production from Origin’s 77.5% working interest. At US$60m the upfront consideration for Origin’s 77.5% Beetaloo interest is c14x lower than the implied valuation as per Falcon’s US$10m private placement in March, and therefore appears to be a cut-rate sale. Under the terms of the JOA with Origin, Falcon has a right of first refusal over Origin’s 77.5% working interest, with the Falcon Board currently reserving its legal position in respect of those rights.

Work Programme Unaffected – Its worth highlighting that the transaction will not impact the timing of the current Stage 3 operations. As a reminder, the Stage 3 work programme will include the drilling, fracture stimulation and extended production testing (90-180 days) of two 1,000m+ horizontal wells targeting the Amungee Member B shale. In addition to drilling one well from the existing Amungee NW-1H well pad, Falcon will also drill a 10km step-out well, providing the company with a bigger platform from which to launch a multi-pad, multi-well programme in 2023/24

A Potential Pre-Emption Opportunity – Falcon has announced that it is reserving its right to exercise its pre-emption rights as part of the JOA with Origin Energy, following the announcement by Origin that it is to fully divest of its entity that holds a 77.5% working interest in the Beetaloo as part of a wider strategic decision to exit all of its upstream exploration permits. At A$60m, the upfront consideration is significantly below recent transaction values and below Origin’s own book value. If exercised, and subject to funding, this would provide Falcon with full control over 4.6m gross acres and 6.6Tcf of gas. In doing so, Falcon would also be able to dictate the pace and scope of Beetaloo work programme and be able to bring in a partner of its choosing on the company’s terms. We estimate Falcon would need A$60m to fund the upfront consideration plus an additional A$80m to fund the upcoming work programme. At A$140m, this would be equivalent to 84% of the Company’s market cap but would provide it with c4.4x the asset exposure.

A Fire Sale – At A$60m, the upfront consideration is c.14x less than the equivalent price paid by Sheffield Holdings as part of the US$10m private placement announced by Falcon in March 2022. Even including the 5.5% overriding royalty, which we value at A$82m (based on the US$6m paid by Falcon to reduce the TOG Group ORRI by 2%), the total transaction value of A$142m is significantly less than the implied cA$822m valuation for Origin as per Sheffield Holdings’ US$10m investment in Falcon in March 2022.

[hermana3] 20/9/2022 07:41

M1V well to spud in coming days. Good news indeed...

[ohisay] 20/9/2022 02:59

Tamboran acquisition pdf...Extensive presentation !

I note ...

$104 million investment by Bryan Sheffield and Helmerich and Payne (H&P) brings additional US expertise to the Beetaloo Basin

Drill, fracture stimulation and flow test of two Amungee development wells planned to commence in October 2022,
Spudding of M1V well expected to commence in coming days

Tamboran has committed to solely fund the remaining Origin Stage 3 farm-in commitments3, which includes the drilling of two horizontal wells, at an estimated cost of $80 million, and back costs to the effective date of 1 July 2022

Actual fraccing at Amungee to start in December.ie Flow rates etc.
A new state of the art Rig to arrive in mid 2023 from H+P.Once operational, Rig 469 will be one of Australia’s most powerful onshore drilling rigs.

This is serious progress and I suspect at the end of the day we will be offered a cash sum and paper in Tamboran to participate in the long term upside in the Beetaloo.
POQ and the Cenkos guy have skin in the game and are undoubtedly smart enough to negotiate a decent deal.But there are many moving parts here.What is good is that things are moving quickly.

[hermana3] 19/9/2022 21:25

Philip not exactly blessed with partners at Beetaloo. Better luck this time around....

[hermana3] 19/9/2022 19:17

So Origin did not offer Falcon its option. Arrogant yokes were never worth a fly's spit on a rusty bucket. Stuck with them after Hess were tossing about...

[mirabeau] 19/9/2022 18:48

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

(“Falcon” or “Company”)

Origin Energy Announces Divestment of Beetaloo Sub-Basin Interests

19 September 2022 – Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) (“Falcon” or the “Company”) notes the media release issued today by its c. 98% subsidiary, Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited’s joint venture partner, Origin Energy B2 Pty Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin Energy Limited (“Origin”) relating to the divestment of their 77.5% interest in the Beetaloo Sub-basin exploration permits.

Under the terms of the Joint Operating Agreement entered into with Origin and announced on 2 May 2014 (as amended), Falcon Australia has a right of first refusal which allows it to notify Origin (within 30 days of any proposed change of control) of Falcon’s intention to acquire Origin’s 77.5% interest in the Beetaloo joint venture. The Board is reserving its legal position in respect of those rights. In the event that the Company seeks to exercise its rights under the Joint Operating Agreement, this would be classified as a reverse takeover pursuant to Rule 14 of the AIM Rules for Companies. The Board will now consider the impact of the decision by Origin on Falcon and will then decide what, if any, actions it intends to take. There is no guarantee that the Company will exercise such rights or that any transaction will occur.

Further information will be disclosed in due course.

Ends.

CONTACT DETAILS:
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. [phone]
Philip O'Quigley, CEO [phone]
Anne Flynn, CFO [phone]

Cenkos Securities plc (NOMAD & Broker)

[hermana3] 19/9/2022 08:08

Upstream magazine describe Origin's exit from Beetaloo as a "bombshell". They were always as slow as a snail progressing this prospect so a new partner is a welcome development indeed. Bring on those Tamboran workhorses toute suite...

[hermana3] 15/9/2022 07:46

All very interesting indeed. Will peruse details of this capital raise. Bryan Sheffield is emerging as a playmaker here...

[ohisay] 15/9/2022 04:20

Again re metrics ..back in April 2020 FOG reduced its holding in the Beetaloo prospect by 7.5% to 22.5% in return for the Origin carry.

-- In consideration of Falcon Australia transferring 7.5% of its PI, Origin
will increase the gross cost cap of the work program by A$150.5 million.

So if Tamboran are farming into Origins stake for 150m (again!) will be interesting to see how much they are getting .