Evolutec Share Discussion Threads

[mr.oz] 04/12/2006 19:08

Bakunin ... well thought out posts , thanks for sharing your thoughts
papa lazaroo ... nice replacement thread... up and running just in time .
Ya gotta laugh ...or I'd be another medical statistic (have lost a paper fortune today)

[narindg] 04/12/2006 17:22

IN AT 33P LETS HOPE SO

[mike crowsoft] 04/12/2006 16:55

Will look to buy on the third day after the fall, on the basis that there are often forced sellers on day 1 and day 2.

Bad news for the company, but the cash pile, whilst diminishing, should offer some protection and optimism will return eventually, as it invariably does with biotechs.

[paddywak1967] 04/12/2006 16:48

What do you think is likely to happen if this clinical trial is successful;

'In 2006, Evolutec also intends to carryout Phase II trials with rEV131 in post-cataract surgery and dry eye. '

[pineapple1] 04/12/2006 15:50

I was also surprised at the blunt nature of the statement."It doesn't work" and thats about it.

[paddywak1967] 04/12/2006 15:03

If they get taken over then this really will not matter. The research value might prompt another biotech to bid for them given the price at the moment. Then there is all that cash as well!!!????

[spiv 1] 04/12/2006 14:55

They may have cash but they also have cash burn!!

[paddywak1967] 04/12/2006 14:39

The cash held is currently substantially more than this company is currently valued at. They have other products in development as well. All this would make them an attractive target for a takeover at the very least, if only for the cash! Then they must have some valuation attached to their research, even if this product has proved unsuccessful!!!

[bipos] 04/12/2006 14:33

Elsworth what do you mean level 4?

[spiv 1] 04/12/2006 14:17

I can't understand how this product got to Phase 2 if there was no efficacy. There is usually loads of pre-clinical data plus Phase 1 reveals some efficacy even though it only tests safety. How can a company spend millions on a compound that doesn't work at all!! Fair enough if it got to phase 3 and side effects were discovered but to fail like this is pathetic. Can't see anyone buying the shares now. All you have is a bit of cash and a loss making biotech miles from any commercial product. Glad to be out at 53p first thing.

[Abuse team] 04/12/2006 14:07

Post removed by ADVFN

[lord c.] 04/12/2006 12:43

What a sensible post ponderer - wish they were all as well thought out.

[narindg] 04/12/2006 12:39

well it turned - lets hope it gets back to 50 odd p

[gambler99] 04/12/2006 12:37

level 2 anyone??

[stegrego] 04/12/2006 09:30

I think the market is now pricing in 'well if tick spit doesnt work for this then maybe it works for nothing'


Lets face it - even ticks dont like it...

[ponderer] 04/12/2006 09:22

With Christmas around the corner, I always get excited. Why? Because it's money-making time in the stock markets! It's the time of the year when I can go out and buy presents for friends and family knowing that the markets will pay for everything. I pretty much do the same thing year in year out: buy shares in mid December, and flog them at a profit before January is out.

Why? Because even though it's cold outside most years, the December and January markets are hot!

The statistics support my argument: the strongest week of the year for the market is the 51st week. And the second strongest? The 52nd week! The third strongest day of the year also falls in December: the 16th, the fourth strongest: December 28th and the fifth: December 23rd.The probability of positive returns in December is a high 69% and the market's only had one significant fall in December since 1981. Both mid and large cap stocks perform equally well.

Why are the markets so good at this time of year? I suspect it is down to something as simple as human psychology: the feel good factor as Christmas approaches and the hopes and dreams that comes with the New Year. However, by the end of January we tend to be left with a bit of a hangover and that's why February isn't such a good month. The markets also often fall in October and November as investors begin to come in and buy what they perceive as bargains.

So where do I put my money to make the most of the benign conditions? First of all, and I do this every year: I buy the FTSE 100 around December 18th and I sell in early January to take advantage. I usually just make a simple FTSE 100 spreadbet long, with a stop loss in place in case it's the one occasional year when the festive uplift doesn't happen.

For example: last year I bought the FTSE at 5495 on December 15th and sold on January 12th at 5735 for an excellent profit of 240 points. I'd placed a £10 a point stake which resulted in a nice profit of £2,400.

I also like buying retail stocks in December. These stocks often rise quite a while before (and just after) Christmas in anticipation of high consumer spending. I'm normally out by early January as retailers usually report their Christmas figures in mid January and sometimes the reality isn't so good. Alternatively, the stocks could already have risen in anticipation of good figures so they begin to fall back on profit-taking.

I also find that December is a good time to have a look at some of the smaller "tiddler" stocks in the market and have a bit of a gamble.

On the downside, one thing to watch out for is companies sneaking out bad news between Christmas and New Year - it's the same as political parties hiding bad news on a big news story day. With so many people away, the companies hope the bad news will go unnoticed so it's worth keeping an eye on news related to your stocks. I tend to get out quick if any kind of bad news is released during the festive period.

The period between Christmas and New Year often sees stocks squeezing higher on thin volumes and this year I intend to be at my screen hoping to make some good gains in just a few days. The market is only open for three days during the main festive period this year: December 27th, 28th and 29th. Even though I might well be tucking into mince pies I'm still going to be at my trading desk looking out for opportunities to make some money!

Last year many stocks raced higher during the holiday period as often there is simply no-one selling and the institutions are shut. This often has a good effect on stocks at the smaller end of the market.

Of course I am making it all sound too easy... this could be the year that it doesn't work out - events could get in my way. But the use of tight stop losses should ensure that if 2006 does not prove to be a bumper Christmas then I won't lose too much after all.

I should also point out that markets often don't do what you expect - so what I write here should really come with a warning. I certainly would not buy before Christmas, go away and come back in January.

My eyes will continue to monitor the market throughout the festive season. But unless unforeseen political or economic events cause the markets to go through an unseasonable lull, I expect to be buying heavily this Christmas season and hoping the markets will once again pay off that whopping credit card bill, which as usual will land on my doormat in February!

[johnwall] 04/12/2006 09:01

But can you really count cash as cover for the share price in this type of company? It will all be spent on future R&D - unless you think there'll be a forced liquidation, which is highly unlikely IMHO.

[rkjones] 04/12/2006 08:43

Company had £13m cash last June and raised a further £2m+ since. Presumably there has been some expenditure since but with present market cap at only £10m. buys at the current share price would appear to have cash cover and potential thrown in for nothing. Not for widows and orphans though!!

[pineapple1] 04/12/2006 08:42

probably??????

[jilldi] 04/12/2006 08:29

is this worth less than their cash???