Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[ohisay] 31/3/2019 13:57

What do you think is fair value Nobby and how would you calculate it?

[nobbygnome] 30/3/2019 18:51

>> Long

I am impressed by your confidence in SAH. I must admit i don't know what to expect there and certainly wouldn't be relying on a positive result. I invested on the back of the breast cancer data and as expected it has promptly delivered!

The market cap here is now completely ridiculous. Let's hope they sign a deal quickly and the price really rerates.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/3/2019 06:28

I'm a buyer here, there's also a EVG group on twitter

[l0ngterm] 29/3/2019 19:02

Not really that surprised, it is the end of the financial year for PIs, and a lot of IIs. Overall the company needs to show a clear path for going forward for an investor return. The key inflection point is SAH, if the results are positive then a marketable product is on the table (allowing for fda approval). This will significantly increase any offer from a partner or takeover. The fact that the company isn't screaming for a partner for breast cancer just now, is a positive. As this would imply SAH is not worth it, however the combined strength of both increases the value significantly, for a partner or takeover.

[ardinno] 29/3/2019 18:50

So, at the end of a relatively rollercoaster week, the share price is back to where it was before the results were released. I’m in this for the long-haul, but can’t pretend I’m not somewhat disheartened by the collective shrug the market has given Evgen this week.

[l0ngterm] 27/3/2019 20:01

Well Nobby if the SAH results are positive the company ccould have a drug in the market sooner than we think. I invested on SAH, so the cancer results were outstanding and a complete shock. If SAH is positive, then the company goes from zero to marketable product, and only 3 months to go (max). GLA

[nobbygnome] 27/3/2019 09:09

Hallelujah, some signs of movement!

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/3/2019 07:39

Agreed expect some news of a sale soon.

[sicilian_kan] 26/3/2019 12:35

Sometimes the market takes a few days / weeks to soak up the good news and to analyse it, for large and new holders to decide to take positions and for those selling to be cleared.

Only recently, I was in GGP and they announced monster grades, namely 275m at 4.77g/t gold and 0.61% copper (275m at 5.75g/t gold equivalent*)

On the day the news came out, the share price went from 1.1p close the day before, to 1.3p close. Everyone knew the results were monster, but the big buying and the closing out was yet to take place.

The day after the news (i.e. only on the second day) did it close at 1.72p, before rising to 2.5p the following month.

In short, I remain of the view that the news yesterday at EVG was excellent. The market will catch up. Just a matter of waiting. Those selling now may well regret it when the market next rises.

[nobbygnome] 26/3/2019 12:30

The key is finding a partner to do the phase III trial. Presumably there would be some sort of upfront payment although the majority would be milestones and royalties. The have had long enough to prepare for this moment so I presume they have suitors lined up and there shouldn't be a long delay.

[l0ngterm] 26/3/2019 12:12

Possible mind you the cash burn now drops significantly, as the trials complete and the company transitions to finding a partner. So any dilution from a share issue would be minimum IMHO. The question is when will full results be published, and how strong will the SAH results will be.

[supernumerary] 26/3/2019 11:07

I expect it comes back to cash - it usually does with biotech. They're spending £3M/year and I reckon they've got around £1.5M left after the last placing, so another one is coming up pretty soon. Unless they can do a deal of course...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 26/3/2019 07:09

Markets missing a trick here - for now.

[nobbygnome] 26/3/2019 07:01

Yes a clearly ridiculous market cap; what do they have to do. Aim is just a casino these days....

[timbo003] 26/3/2019 06:43

Thought for the day (after yesterday's lack lacklustre share performance):

* Evgen Market Cap at IPO (Oct 31st 2015): £27m

* Evgen Market Cap today (March 26th 2019): £21m


Notable achievements since IPO:

* Successfully completed a proof of concept phase I/II POC study in Metastatic Breast cancer, product met primary end point.

* Initiated a second proof of concept phase I/II study in Subarachnoid Hemorrhagic stroke which is nearing completion and due to report in the next three months.

* Strengthened IP and identified potentially useful sulforaphane analogues for subsequent clinical development.

* Successfully progressed various collaborative projects with academia to identify additional indications for Sulforaphane and/or Sulforaphane analogues.

[timbo003] 25/3/2019 19:13

Thanks for that interesting thought Longterm

That looks like a reasonable assumption based on slide 13 of today’s presentation (see below) and reports available in the public domain regarding annual sales for Afinitor (everolimus), see below

Also reading across to the BOLERO-2 study, SFX-01 appears to have a superior tolerability profile and similar (possibly better?) efficacy (as measured by response rate) compared to everolimus (in the BOLERO-2 study)














.

[l0ngterm] 25/3/2019 17:10

Thanks SK and TImbo. Also a quick Question for the board, am I correct when stating that everolimus is Afinitor from Novartis, and has cancer sales in the region of $1.5 billion. If so do we actually have a direct mapping from an Afinitor market to potential SFX sales?

[sicilian_kan] 25/3/2019 16:32

Thanks Tim for the further responses

[timbo003] 25/3/2019 16:26

I have now received written responses to my other two questions (via Buchanan), see below)



Hi Tim,

Here are the answers to your two most recent questions:

1.Did all 24% (11) patients who showed a positive CBR at 24 weeks enrol for the compassionate use program?

Yes, all 11 patients with CBR at 24 weeks were enrolled into the compassionate use phase, plus a further 2 patients.


2. Were there any drop outs in the study due to the main side effects i.e. gastrointestinal symptoms, including nausea and reflux?

One patient withdrew from the study due to an adverse event of reflux.

Please let us know if you have any further queries.

Kind regards,

Mark

[timbo003] 25/3/2019 16:19

>>>SK, thanks for the link to Bolero-2

I am going to read and digest

[sicilian_kan] 25/3/2019 15:00

I assume the 0.4% placebo for Bolero-2 is from this study:

[sicilian_kan] 25/3/2019 14:57

spmc, I didn't hear those figures (15-18%) in the webcast. Can you please highlight to me the time (mm:ss) where you say that was said. May have missed it, but do not recall hearing this and would like to confirm either way.

I did hear a response to Timbo's question:

Q: What response rate (if any) might you have expected to see in control patients if you had included an equal sized control arm in the study

A: So, really I think we have to go to the Bolero2 study control arm which isn't identical but did switch patients to...similar agent in a similar setting...their response rate was 0.4%, so we do seem to be superior to that approach

[nobbygnome] 25/3/2019 14:13

>spmc

The next trial is going to be in a different group of patients who are just starting tamoxifen treatment so your trial number calculation is not relevant. Having said that it will be tricky to ascertain the appropriate numbers of patients because it is in a different group. I guess they will assume say a 40% response rate and do the power calculation on that basis.

[spmc] 25/3/2019 14:06

The call has raised a few concerns for me, expected 15 - 18% response in a control arm of a placebo trial. So todays results would be a long way from statistical significance in a placebo trial. By my calculations to get p < 0.05 in phase 3 if response rate is maintained v 18% placebo we would need circa 2000 patients in the trial that will be very very expensive. If I remember correctly Immupharmas 200 patient phase 3 cost £20 mil + so what will a 2,000 patient one cost £200 mil +?

[nobbygnome] 25/3/2019 11:18

How did the call go?