Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[lovewinshatelosses] 24/9/2019 08:36

Thanks for your further thoughts and kind comments Pennyfalls - and I may also take your advice on the name change too if I get a chance (for this, read overcome lazyness!) It is also interesting reading Nobby's take - like you I agree he is clearly a very knowledgeable person, especially when it comes to this niche area - but I really hope his gut feeling is wrong, as his reasoning is thought-provoking and approaches an angle that I had not even considered. Either way, we shall see.

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 23:24

FAO NobbyGnome...I’;ve sent you a Private Message

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 23:17

Hi Personal troll ! Gone down all my messages ticking down..weeeirdo !

[nobbygnome] 23/9/2019 21:28

And in a blinded trial there won’t be any news ‘slipping̵7; out so don’t worry about that.

[nobbygnome] 23/9/2019 21:26

>> Pennyfalls

So many questions. First of all I mean they have been clever with the choice of endpoint which increases the chance of a positive result. However of course going forward all that really matters is whether there is a reduction in mortality.

My nervousness is more a gut feel born out of many years in the industry and many years investing in biotech. Plus as I said earlier SAH is a difficult indication where little has been shown to work. You have to understand that I have a high propensity for risk and had a big holding ahead of the breast cancer trial. Luckily I sold the majority on the day of the results in the high 20s but that really was more luck than judgement. So I am certainly not going all in this time but still may buy a few more just in case my nervousness is misplaced.

Ultimately please DYOR and I may well be completely wrong and will be the first to point that out if there is a positive result. Unlike most on this board, I say it as it is even when it is against my own (small) holding!

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 20:57

Indeed Dave..
And Nobby...could you expand on why you feel they’ve been canny with the endpoints?
Also, if you feel “unease” is PIs getting nervy or that data could be slipping and whispers coming out?
If people are getting nervy, why would that be now, and wouldn’t the larger investors be de-risking their position?

And, Nobby, what is your thought process regarding buying more if you feel the risk profile is high, with an increasing nervousness?
Thanks..all good stuff

[dave444] 23/9/2019 20:50

I would be surprised if the company had not entered into a meaningful trial.

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 20:44

Ok nobby, interesting thoughts. I see you have quite a lot of experience in this sector, so value your opinions.
I’d appreciate it if you expand a little on what you’ve said if you don;’t mind..
Just wondering out loud what other endpoints regarding efficacy they could have chosen? If they’ve been cute does that mean if may have a limited outcome?...and does having “limited”; risk endpoints mean that it could be a rather muddied result..ie it meets endpoints as stated but isn’t enlightening or wold shaking? Ie a technical success, but of limited use?
Thanks...very interested
Anyone else got a view on this? What are rating the chances of success at, in your view?

[nobbygnome] 23/9/2019 20:04

My personal thought is that there is some nervousness about the SAH result and that is exactly my position. SAH is a difficult indication although they have been cute by having the primary endpoint of this trial as blood flow rather than another efficacy end point. So overall high reward but high risk IMHO. I only currently have a small holding but am considering buying a few more whilst being fully aware of the relatively high risk.

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 19:44

Hi there...Thanks for your post LWHL ;o) can’t you change usernames? Maybe re-register( yes, a pain!)
Thanks for posting and opening up to lacking confidence. Message boards can be brutal places - usually the ones who are insecure themselves, or have too much invested/ ideologically defensive about a stock are the worst ones..but then there’s the sharks, the rampers/deramper s etc etc..It’s a minefield, and it still gets to me sometimes, despite my experience in investing. So, I say, please carry on and air your views, and try to turn a blind eye to criticism. Share boards are for sharing views and information, ideas, speculation and tips.

You’re correct in that the last to know of bad news will be PIs, but in some ways all you can do is extrapolate the story and follow the money. This is a VERY typical share graph pattern , and hopefully , should stabilise v soon (I think we’re about at bottom now) and Moving Averages start going positive, then it’s game on.
It also looks like a tipping point in commercialisation - 50 to 250M upfront etc if those goes well last Quarter.

Following the money: It’s hard to know what all these (somewhat disconcerting)sells are circa £11K,, may mean something may mean nothing, may be MMs buying ans selling to each other to create fear)

So...all we have is reading between the lines of Company Progress (all seems to be good), and Big investors...ie
Ali Mortazavi
And Richard Griffiths..

They know each other of old, and are very successful, clued-up Investors/ ex CEOs, one a Biotech specialist. They’ve plumped in here quite big circa placing and around that time.

I would think that they are very informed of what’s going on here and have more idea than the average punter. Shorting doesn’t appear to be their game, so I’m taking their involvement to be very positive.

But, as you say - it’s all playing the odds...
Good luck and please keep posting

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/9/2019 17:06

It is a rubbish username; I wanted something more snappy, but in the end just plumped for this, as the creative juices were not flowing!

I appreciate your comments Pennyfalls and they are similar conclusions to my own here, although I am not as knowledgeable as a lot of posters on these boards and therefore lack the confidence to put some of my opinions in writing too. Some of the commentators on these boards are so extreme as well, it can feel a bit like being back in the classroom and not wanting to incur the scorn of the popular kids:)

I continue to ponder whether I should add to my (small) current holding here, but irrespective of this decision, I have decided not to sell any and see this through to its conclusion. I have witnessed both ends of the spectrum with other similar stocks (as a non-holder) and so am aware that disastrous results will mean I will not escape with much of my initial investment before the big boys have fled first anyway, and if positive news, a multi-bagger from here does not seem to be unrealistic, from various things that I have read, IMO of course.

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 15:39

Hi lovewinshatelosses (that;’s quite an extended name!)
In my opinion the MMs have this on quite an obvious chart trajectory down to a support of between 15 -16p, then I think they’ll start raising it a little in anticipation of Q4 news, when, if good, they’ll release it.
I think some of today’s news was already factored in and I think they’re waiting for the Q4 update to let it go (either way, depending on results)
I’ve no idea if they’re share accumulating in the background or at least trying to...
There does seem to have been a drip selling going on (but some were buys tagged as sells - and there have been a few substantial buys too) Think we’ll know the answers in a few days/ weeks

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/9/2019 13:46

So, another positive RNS and yet no great movement in the share price today so far. Do people think that this is because the statistical significance is yet to be proven on a large enough scale and/or for a long enough time period, or is it something else?

Regardless, I too would like to add my best wishes to blakeysangel, whose positivity I really respect and whose updates I appreciate.

[timbo003] 23/9/2019 11:54

Good to hear that you are still long and strong blakeysangel, your positive outlook is an inspiration.

With an (indirect) individual mention in this recent RNS, I suspect your case will also be mentioned in the subsequent publications regarding the trial, therefore securing an immortal place in the annals of at least one learned Oncology Journal.

[nobbygnome] 23/9/2019 10:04

>> Blakeysangel

I think your positive thinking is part of the story too! Keep it going. You are an inspiration to all of us.

[pennyfalls] 23/9/2019 09:30

Dear Blakeysangel, thank you so much for coming on here and sharing.
I’m chuffed for you that it seems to be helping and hope you stay as well as can be.
I think a healthy diet does make a massive difference..
I’ve been taking grapeseed axtract among other flavanoids etc, and some of these have had remarkable effects in studies, so I do thkink that getting potent high-powered anti-oxidants among a balanced diet can work.
I should have had cataract development within 3 years after an eye operation 10 years ago, but I”ve made sure I have high reservatrol intake , Quercetin , Cyanadins, etc..and still no sign of one.
What we put into ourselves does make a difference.

Great to hear from you, and thanks for sharing, and long may you stay healthy :o)
Xx

[blakeysangel] 23/9/2019 08:05

So I made my goal of being the longest on this drug, so far, I’m ecstatic and pleased for all the others who have had success and are still continuing,one of the main bonus,s for me has been the mild side effects, my quality of life is very good. My hubby pointed out that maybe my diet choices over this time have helped also,I still continue to eat lots of broccoli and greens and a good diet, with a few naughty bits thrown in to keep me on track, who knows with this disease. Anyway here’s to another 6 weeks progression free till next scan.😀ԅ12;

[snowyflake] 23/9/2019 07:29

Excellent news. Presentation in Barcelona 29.09.19.

[pdt] 23/9/2019 07:18

Excellent news. For success in the next trial they are hoping for 8 months of PFS. To have 5 people demonstrate success for over 12 months most be encouraging. And as the news release states you would hope for even better results when given at an earlier stage.

I wonder why they released this news now. Perhaps to share with potential partners.

[dave444] 23/9/2019 07:13

Brilliant result in that RNS

[pennyfalls] 20/9/2019 10:57

Hello again,
There’s a poster on LSE called Greg25 who seems really clued-up about Evgen. Does he post on here?
Thanks

[pennyfalls] 19/9/2019 19:53

Ps Looks like my weird tick-down troll from NFX is following me around again!
(Unless it was just a deservedly bad first post!)

[pennyfalls] 19/9/2019 12:39

Morning all...
Just bought in here this morning. Looks very promising indeed. I’ve been reading about this for last 3 days, including Blakeysangel’s kind input - and I hope things go well for you. Very heartwarming.

I love how this drug has potential not only in Cranium bleeds, but autism, cognitive function in mental illness and obviously cancer. Potent thing those Broccoli phytochemicals :o)

The chart is looking primed for a breakout and news (in next few weeks) will probably be catalyst, although it may nudge up before then. Gap in chart today to be filled circa 16.15- 16.20 ish.

Thanks everyone for an informative and level-headed board, and please share more info.
Thanks and good luck, PF

[pdt] 12/9/2019 22:06

Blakeysangel - thanks for keeping us informed and hopefully SFX-01 will keep working for you for a long time to come. Enjoy the seaside, incidently I live on the coast looking out over water and love it.