Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[manual dexterity] 25/1/2024 10:10

There has been quite a few large sell so lets see if this is that last of it. Acquired a few last week but it seems there could be another accumulator here.

[dave4545] 25/1/2024 10:09

Sent down a 250k buy order and at 1.65p seeing overhang is cleared

Just 1 mm left with 30k on it so not expecting a fill now seller is out

[dave4545] 25/1/2024 10:03

boom axa out

13,399,724 last Rns

1074724 delayed sale worked after the buys earlier

[lawson27] 25/1/2024 09:59

It would be nice to see this one breakout, GLA

[dave4545] 25/1/2024 09:50

hey no quote for even 100k now :-))

Can we get back over 2p this week please

[wololol] 25/1/2024 08:39

That has to be the last of the overhang by my calculations, they are running on dirt in the tank surely.

[dave4545] 25/1/2024 08:17

Well it's still a overhang 500k at 1.568p and 750k at 1.6p offered online

Not that cannot be took out in a instant if interest starts again

[ohisay] 25/1/2024 03:00

Nice opportunity here I think at the current price.

[dave4545] 24/1/2024 23:37

Wow all that buying and not a post all day from the morning.

Just needs a simple surge of buying tomorrow to take out 1.6p and it will be off and running

[manual dexterity] 24/1/2024 11:38

Just need an RNS to confirm our seller has exited. That should add impetus to the share price.

[dave4545] 24/1/2024 10:01

fwiw none of those buys are mine just now but somebody or two are having a crack at this again

[clocktower] 23/1/2024 12:33

So no worked order dave and I suggest the MM increased the bid to 1.5p yesterday was to fill the earlier larger buys.

[dave4545] 22/1/2024 16:32

Be very surprised if no worked buy shows later

[clocktower] 22/1/2024 16:01

So much for a stealth buyer when they can still pick up huge amounts under 1.65p

[markth126] 22/1/2024 10:57

I agree, someone is buying them in volume. Can sell 800k now highest I've seen for a long time

[wololol] 22/1/2024 10:51

We have a stealth buyer. The buy will show up later perhaps maybe 1 million bought. Can sell whole lot. Buyer want in on cheap whist 1 days traders suck out. Patience will be rewarded here.

[clocktower] 22/1/2024 10:46

Ouch not again surely. I should have stayed out and learnt having been burnt.

Still in to stay for now.

[dave4545] 22/1/2024 10:42

One sell and they all sell.

I'm seeing this everywhere now.

[manual dexterity] 22/1/2024 09:30

Prices have gone up slightly. 200k at 1.625p. 250k at 1.65p and up to 325k at 1.695p.

[wololol] 22/1/2024 09:04

How much left at 1.65 please Dave?

[wololol] 21/1/2024 09:03

"Alongside these key developments, Stalicla will further strengthen the package supporting its second precision ASD asset, STP2". Lyn Durham.

[w t tutte] 21/1/2024 03:22

I do not understand the obsession with who is selling and why. It provides no new information. as anyone buying or selling has no better understanding of the situation than you or me.

The only thing that matters here, at least as far an existing shareholders are concerned, is do Stalicla proceed to Phase II. EVG have a comfortable 12 months of cash which is sufficient time for this to play out or not.

Stalicla proceed, cash runway is extended and value inflection point of going in to phase II gets baked in to valuation. Further cash is raised at much higher share price and time is bought for progress, in other indications, to play in to valuation. (Best Outcome)

Stalicla do not proceed. EVG has limited cash remaining and no line of sight to any milestone payments. Share price crashes (yes, even from here) they raise a small amount to limp on but existing shareholders are wiped out. (Worst Outcome)

The outlier that upsets this binary analysis is an unquantifiable event, which would skew positively and that would be that they conclude a deal in another indication that comes with a bit of cash.

So how do you try to determine if Stalicla are likely to proceed or not ? Well this week in their Series B press release and now having most of the data they need to make an evaluation they have stated that they are continuing their work on STX01 Package. This would have been an easy point to drop the program, should they have wanted to. On the negative side it suggests, at this stage, they might not be looking to take it in to Phase II with their own cash. They may already have a partner lined up but at very least, it would suggest that they think the asset is capable of being partnered. The cost of taking this in to Phase II, including the milestone payment is likely to be @US$20 million. Which is more than they raised, but of course nothing to stop them coming back to raise for STX01, note in their press release that Stalicla refer to this raise as the FIRST round of the Series B.

A couple of interesting things to note from linkedin, that may or may not be significant.
1) The New CFO seems to be based in Switzerland, as is Stalicla. Coincidence ?
2) I could not find a single EVG employee, including Huw, who liked the Stalicla Series B announcement. Suggests to me they do not see this event as directly impactful to EVG.

So where do I sit, given the share price and the approach of Stalicla and also how hot the CNS sector is right now. I lean (60/40) towards STX01 moving in to phase II. I think this is most likely to happen via Staliclia entering in to a partnership (which I suspect is already lined up), however there is a sneaking suspicion that Staliclia is on a near term IPO track and may raise again in the near term with one of the use of proceeds to be taking STX01 in to Phase II.

Will be looking to buy a few here but will be scaling and pricing it like a 12 month option (cash runway until they have to raise) and not an investment.

[clocktower] 19/1/2024 21:00

Post 2600 is just basically what Wololol has already informed everyone on the thread, and the rest of the post is just fluff, as they could never answer the questions about the future or why or where AXA is until they receive or pass on this information in a RNS, or AXA delivers it straight to market.

Monday should tell us if they have reduced their stake or if the stock came from elsewhere but I think that 99% of us are now in agreement that following the last non-RNS was clarified by Wololol, that we are all positive once again, and those that were out or with a reduced holding are now back in and if not fully topped up are pretty well invested here, and are waiting for a lot of positive news in the coming months.

I think we are also agreed that the overhang is gone and any reasonable level of buying even without news should quickly send the share price back over 2p/2.5p and with news it could easily go back towards 5p and if there is a string of good news, it’s anyone’s guess.


I am however surprised that they left it to individuals to effectively post the clarification of their news, rather than doing it themselves, so to be sure the whole market is aware, and not just those that follow threads on various media/financial websites, ensuring more investors we’re likely to become holders or traders.

Hopefully they do not make such a botch of any future positive news.

Still, it’s time they bought in as well which would take the share price well up by itself imo.

I still have a sneaking belief that someone is building a huge stake with a view to taking it over. The reason for this is the millions that AXA sold when they last advised the reduction of stake at around 1.60p we had no RNS about any new large holder. I also don’t think AXA have reduced their stake, I think others have made an agreement to facilitate the deal but we shall see shortly as I might be completely wrong.

[markth126] 19/1/2024 19:53

I think that is a very fair post pro, and reflects my understanding from the company too.