Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 15/2/2024 09:38

100% I am, EVG are part of my speculative high risk positions which are weighted appropriately. But I don't peddle fantasy, I'm simply in EVG for the potential upside and that will start to appear IF there is positive news from the studies.

[clocktower] 15/2/2024 09:11

Well hat as you said you bought some the other day, I assume you are one of the risk taking PI's then. :-)

Have a great day and good luck.

[hatfullofsky] 15/2/2024 08:52

Clock - stop this fantasy, there is no way Stalicla will buy / RTO or any other form of acquisition of EVG. It's just not plausible, its fantasy thinking.

The best we can hope for is that they pay their milestone payment and I think a Phase II study his now highly unlikely.

That leaves EVG with 3 in vivo studies and one pre-clinical. Not an attractive position for any form of investment (apart from risk taking PI's of course)

[clocktower] 14/2/2024 21:01

peverill one of the better options is for them, might be to do an RTO as they have cash and they might want to become a listed company to give them access to even more funds, they could even consider a deal that would not involve putting up anything at all just by doing a share scheme, which might not currently value EVG at very much more but once completed could have the potential to value the joint entity at a very much higher level.

This sort of deal could be beneficial for all parties in the longer term.

[clocktower] 14/2/2024 20:35

peverill the one problem with your post, is that nobody is certain that Phase 2 will deliver even, but if they are already convinced that success is guaranteed, then it would most likely be in their best interest to snap it up before allowing, what could be an opportunity for other entities to outbid Stalicia.

They could then benefit from the other studies being undertaken in conjunction with other leaders in research using SFX-01.

You also need to do a little more research just by looking on the company website and you will see that other studies are at a more advanced stage, and for all any of us known they could be about to sign other deals with other firms that might provide an initial payment, as Stalicia did, and a previous company that decided not to proceed at that time but that is not to say that someone else in that field may not take up the reins and also make a forward payment.

While there’s all sorts of risks when you invest in any small Pharma company, there can also be very large rewards when everything goes well.

Obviously it is very concerning but what we do know if one accepts hats figures above, there is sufficient fund’s without any other deal or funds being received from any other source, grants maybe, and they can be sizeable. So far it’s far too early for anyone to be writing the company off and into the hands of administrators.

Of course it’s not for widows or orphans but it is wrong to suggest it is on its last legs.

[peverill] 14/2/2024 19:51

Don't pay them,watch them go under,pick up the tech for a few pennies from the administrator.£160m plus Royalties saved.Evgen suckered by putting all their eggs in one basket.tut tut.

[hatfullofsky] 14/2/2024 13:27

SP 0.95p / MCAP GBP 2.5m

Cash levels based on GBP250k / month

Cash 30/09/23 GBP 3.7m
est Cash 31/12/23 GBP 3m
est Cash 31/03/24 GBP 2.25m
est Cash 30/06/24 GBP 1.5m
est Cash 30/09/24 GBP 0.75m
est Cash 31/12/24 GBP 0m

They may do a fund raise in 7 months but we should have plenty of news before then.

Total punt now

[bones698] 13/2/2024 23:30

I can understand you trying to find positives but I think it's clutching at straws.
The news this week wasn't an oversight that's definite which means they wither don't believe the targets have been met or realise they have entered a poor deal and want out.
Having to go to an arbitration to get 0.5m rrlaly doesn't bide well for the relationship after that and you can pretty much write off that headline deal.

Also worryingly is why they don't want to pay. Have they found issues and simply don't see any value perusing it further?

If you take that deal out of the equation then what tour left with isn't much at all. A loss making business with very little cash an that will need to raise to keep going

Cash runway remains unchanged to end of 2024 excluding further milestones from the Stalicla SA out-license agreement.

From the trading update so cash will run out later this year which means a fund raise likely h2 this year and the share price very likely to keep falling running upto this with little newsflow to change it.

Unfortunately another small cap aim company desperate for cash that will get fleeced and shareholders along with it. A common story I'm afraid. Investors will avoid and even cut their losses here as the share price continues to fall

[clocktower] 13/2/2024 10:59

One more thing he might do impo, with other big shareholders and the management - issue a lot more shares and dilute the pants off small PI's by raising at a small discount to the current price later in the year, that the current BOD would participate in, as they have not done as Huw said he wanted to do, and bought shares to date..

Then they would likely bounce to very high levels soon after.

[clocktower] 13/2/2024 10:44

Seeing those couple of buys this morning, I was pondering what I would do if I were

J R Kight with 33,100,000 shares 12% - that I guess cost him anywhere between 3/4p a share. So an investment of almost £1 million to say £1.4 million a third of the current value of the company. This has got to be massively undervalued in view of what is already in the pipeline, even without Stalicia surely.

What would you do:

1) If it goes wrong just write it off as a tax loss (if you can)

2) Are you speaking to the CEO and CFO

3) Are you considering to buy more and take control?

4) In touch with other major stakeholders to see if you can take control and remove
the BoD

5) Talking to markth126 - 😉

Any other suggestions what you might ponder doing.

[w t tutte] 13/2/2024 00:41

Clearly this situation is not a positive but I would make 3 points.

1) This is within the context of an arbitration process and all that EVG have done so far is to say formally this is an issue that we are prepared to take further along the process. If you have ever been involved in any of these things you will know at almost every stage involved parties are sent back to talk more and very often things get resolved without lasting damage to the relationship. That may or may not happen here but at this point it is far from curtains.

2) A small outside possibility is that EVG has the someone else for the asset and wants it back. So is starting to escalate something small to put the pressure on Staliclia knowing they did not raise enough cash to progress SFX-01.

3) I find it rather odd, given they believe it is payable, that EVG would not have included the 500k in any cash forecasts for this year.

[bones698] 12/2/2024 09:50

Pevsrill that's very optimistic . You don't miss payments with a partner so early on and for such a small amount . This is going to go bad if they are having to give formal notice to them that they haven't paid . They will have had phonecalls and not resolved it so not an oversight

[hairballradical] 12/2/2024 07:40

It's likely a contract dispute, 'that's not what that meant' or ' you haven't submitted xyz to abc to complete that part'.

[peverill] 11/2/2024 13:57

If this drags out,Evgen have problems,especially if they fall out with Stalicla. Hopefully it's just an oversight and things can be sorted quickly and amicably.

[ged5] 10/2/2024 15:39

How come the announcements on 10th October 2022 from Evgen and Stalicla are different in the Key Financial Terms?

Evgen's version:-

$0.5m upfront, $0.5m on completion of the, already fully financed, Evgen-sponsored human volunteer Phase 1 study (anticipated during Q2 2023). Milestone payments up to commercial launch are $26.5m, including $5m on grant of IND by the FDA (anticipated in late 2023). Total milestones of $160.5m are payable to the Company in relation to the first neurodevelopmental disorder indication under the license. Royalties payable to Evgen on sales are in the low to medium double-digit range in all scenarios, including on-licensing by Stalicla and use of SFX-01 in further licensed indications.



Stalicla's version:-

Key financial terms:

$0.5m upfront payment
Total cumulated milestones of up to $160.5m in relation to the first indication under the license.
Low to medium double digit percentage royalties on sales of SFX-01

[wololol] 09/2/2024 16:06

It's such a shame they couldn't be a respectable partner and pay the £500k and then everyone is happy. It leaves very bad taste in my mouth about how Stalicla do business. If they can't pay £500k I do I expect them to pay ,£160million in royalties. So disappointed and do feel sympathy for EVG.

[clocktower] 09/2/2024 15:49

GreenRichard really odd for him to be talking about entering Phase II bearing in mind he must have been fully aware of the dispute for some time.

Maybe it has more to do with the deal going forward than the disputed sum, it maybe a way of renegotiation of the longer term agreement.

[greenrichard] 09/2/2024 15:24

Interview with Stalicla CEO Lynn Durham published 7th February.

It is also exploring its candidate STP2 (SFX-01), a stabilised synthetic form of sulforaphane, for ASD-Phenotype 2. Durham says that with the additional capital, both drugs should be entering Phase II trials in Q3 2024.

In a financing round later this year, Stalicla aims to raise $65m to take the company through its upcoming readouts and a potential event for investors, says Durham.

[clocktower] 09/2/2024 13:11

Well done dave, at least you broke even.

However, what a good time it would be for Stalicia to buy the company if they really wanted to progress.

Save 500k as well.

[dave4545] 09/2/2024 12:50

You must have memory loss, I did say last week because of other stocks I reduced the exposure then I said again I reduced again after Rene suspension.
Another big holding of mine is getting suspended too today not that I'm selling but I'm just going back to trading so I sold the rest for a loss overall breakeven.

My head is just not on it now to invest in anything

[wololol] 09/2/2024 12:46

To be fair to AXA they did all right selling out in the end.

[lovewinshatelosses] 09/2/2024 12:44

That is one issue too many for me. I am out as well, albeit a few left in the trading account for the inevitable tax loss write off at some point.
I might well have continued to support the company, had the Directors made any decent-sized purchases in the recent past. If we see an RNS with some significant inside buys, then I might reconsider. If this was the first 'problem', rather than yet another in a long line of 'problems', then I would have probably bought the dip.
Good luck to those of you who are doing so. While I have nothing but disdain for the salary-collectors here, I wish PI's good fortune, but above all, hope nobody risks more than they can afford to lose. IMO, the only people who are going to walk away with money here are the BOD.

[clocktower] 09/2/2024 12:40

You would not have thought Stalicia would still have this on their website if they had fallen out to such an extent with EVG.



"ASD-Phenotype 1 – STP1
STP1 is a fixed dose combination of PDE4/3 inhibitor (ibudilast) and NKCC1 antagonist (bumetanide).

STP1 is a precision medicine treatment candidate identified by DEPI to benefit ASD-Phen1.

ASD-Phen1 is the first DEPI-enriched subgroup of ASD patients, clinically validated through 2 independent clinical observational/biosampling studies (Greenwood Genetic Center and Cincinnati Children's Hospital) and biologically validated through multi-omics analyses showing a distinct biological/molecular signature as predicted by DEPI.

STP1 has completed a clinical Phase1b in Feb. 2022 in ASD-Phen1 patients, showing: 1) a good safety-tolerability profile; 2) a strong dose-related target engagement (significant reduction gamma waves in brain area associated with executive function and memory), and 3) PK/PD modeling showing strong correlation between STP1 dosage and autism severity standardized scores (ABC, SRS).

STP1 will enter Phase 2 in 2024.

ASD-Phenotype 2 – STP2
STP2, or SFX-01, is a stabilized synthetic form of sulforaphane for which STALICLA has acquired the rights for neurodevelopment disorders worldwide from Evgen Pharma in Oct. 2022.

STP2 a precision medicine treatment candidate identified by DEPI to benefit ASD-Phen2.

ASD-Phen2 is the second DEPI-enriched subgroup of ASD patients, clinically validated in a clinical observational/biosampling study and showing a specific molecular signature as predicted by DEPI.

STP2 will enter Phase 2 in 2024."

[wololol] 09/2/2024 12:26

Pretty much all pharmas high risk. Are you still holding your 2 million or so Dave. What's your plan?

[dave4545] 09/2/2024 12:24

Just seems a sector to trade but not invest.

This has tanked.
Agl lost all it's 200% gains
FAB tanked 90% on a shocking placing
OBD tanked on cash worries
RENE suspended this week...

I could carry on