Europasia Education Share Discussion Threads

[qazwsx123] 24/11/2005 10:51

pljohnson, please would you place links to EPE's and CEG's websites into the thread header (together with a note saying that EPE owns 13.8% of CEG).

Thanks.

[overeager] 24/11/2005 10:45

Dell, you have a point. However, my view is that the warrants and loans won't get converted until there is a need to raise more cash for another investment. I am assuming (and I accept I may be wrong) that any further investment would also be good for shareholders.

I have to say that I did well out of London Asia Capital (LDC) which was a 10 bagger for me. The same people are involved here. With LDC it took ages for the market to wake up to the market value being wrong although the clues had always been there. In the end LDC virtually spelled it out in an RNS and the shares shot up.

Obviously I am hoping for the same to happen here.

[gaybriefs] 24/11/2005 10:41

dell314 - surely you also have to factor in other parts of Europe Asias business if you are going to predict such a premium over current prices..LOL!

From this years prelims....
"Turnover has risen five-fold in the year, primarily as a result of the
acquisition in July 2004 of Bournemouth Educational Centre Limited ("BECL") for
#754,689. Because the acquisition was made mid way through the year, only five
months results for BECL are shown in the accounts for the year ended 31st
December 2004. The full benefit of the acquisition will come through in the 2005 accounts."

[overeager] 24/11/2005 10:10

Ok, thought I'd share my valuation thoughts on EPE based purely on the OFEX float. (and based on fundamentals alone).

We know that in the year to June 05 a profit after tax of £2.4m was generated. Therefore the OFEX float is valued on a historical P/E of 7.

You have to remember that the college grew substantially in the year, ending with 8000+ students. The net profit per student is £300.

The college is still growing and the intention is to have 20000 students by 2007. I am assuming 12,000 students by June 06 which I think is reasonable.
This will give a Profit after tax of approx. £3million, rising to approx £4.5million in the year to June 07.

My belief is that the float price is too cheap anyway (historical P/E of only 7 on a growth company!!?). I think 10 is fairer and if you agree with my logic the implied company valuation at float is 10 x £2.4 = £24million of which the EPE share is £3.3m.

By June 06 using a similar logic the company should be worth £30million, EPE's share being worth £4.2m

Hence my view that a re-rating to approx 10p is very probable within 6 months.

Anyone else got their slide rules out?

[gaybriefs] 24/11/2005 09:46

cfl03 - 23 Nov'05 - 16:39 - 242 of 247
Very interested to hear your views here dell.

Glad to see you're still as popular as ever!

dell314 - 24 Nov'05 - 08:57 - 247 of 247

encarter -(plus it was amusing annoying the cretin, VenomousViper!).

dell314 wont be very popular coming out with remarks like the above it just shows how disliked this poster is.

[dell314] 24/11/2005 08:57

encarter - I didn't really look into these, as I pointed out, previously.
The comments about warrants and convertibles were really just because that was the first thing I noticed on the RNS list(plus it was amusing annoying the cretin, VenomousViper!).

I have quite a lot on at the moment, so I was hoping that you'd give me enough of a summary to get me interested enough to dig deeper.
FWIW, I think you are a bit keen to ignore the dilutive effects of warrants and convertibles. It is always useful to, at least, factor them in for an alternative valuation IMHO, especially when they are in the money(or almost).


PaulK - Thanks for your comments. I don't think we've bumped into each other since looking at the dogstock, IAL(possibly the RSV fiasco as well?).
Hope your investments are doing OK.


Gaybriefs - LOL! Which of my posts do you consider to be trumped up stories?

Although, I usually tend to focus on the negatives, when I give company reports the once over, hopefully my observations do occasionally provide some food for thought to add to others research.


cfol - I'm back on PB from time to time, when alf isn't posting 10 to the dozen. See you around...

Rgds
dell

All IMHO, DYOR etc.

[overeager] 24/11/2005 08:37

Encarter,

My thoughts tie in with yours exactly. EPE currently worth about 6p ignoring the other businesses. I can only see the FULLY UNDERWRITTEN OFEX float opening at a substantial premium which we will benefit from. 10p short term is my target.

Anyone else care to comment.

[encarter] 24/11/2005 07:38

dell, thanks for taking a look. Your point about the convertibles and warrants only confirms that EPE are undervalued. Anyone converting won't do so until the share price is at least 50% above yesterdays level, so if they were to hold the share price back it would be at that level.
However the convertibles and warrants won't effect the share price until they are converted.

Setting aside EPEs other businesses, they will own 14% of a company making a £2m profit and valued at £17m, so id'e value them at 6p a share.
Where we go from there depends largly upon how CEG perform, imho they too are undervalued and with the limited stock available i expect a nice rise in their share price when listed.

Off to work now so i won't be able to keep an eye on these, but is there any reason why i shouldn't buy another 100k????????

[krishall] 23/11/2005 20:43

And when 'sentiment' swings towards EPE then market cap could end up double the book value... so that makes this a potential ten-bagger... holding and hoping...

[qazwsx123] 23/11/2005 20:06

I reckon EPE's market capitalisation should now be at least four or five times the current level.

[cfol3] 23/11/2005 16:39

Very interested to hear your views here dell.

Glad to see you're still as popular as ever!

[gaybriefs] 23/11/2005 15:38

Well I for one certainly wont be reading Trotters analysis hes a serial deramper if anyone wants to know go and check out Caplay (CLY) his views are always negative without solid facts to back any of these trumped up storys up...dell314> Filtered

[paulkent] 23/11/2005 15:30

well i for one would be glad to hear dells thoughts on thsi one...never known him (or her?!) yet give anything other than well considered arguments...and vv, it doesnt mean you ahve to agree with someone elses analysis, but it surely can never hurt to get it?!!

[venomousviper] 23/11/2005 15:22

"We are delighted with the success of this investment, our stake in which at the listing price exceeds EPE's own market capitalisation. We will continue to seek out similar opportunities".

Says it all really opportunities to buy a stake in a company whos investments exceed their own market capitalisation on AIM are few and far between.DYOR.

[dell314] 23/11/2005 14:12

VV - I haven't started my analysis yet.

I thought it would be polite to wait for encarter.

However, thanks for your opinions on the convertibles and warrants.
Presumably, as you are sure that no one will ever convert their convertibles, they'll need to pay the money back at some stage.
When will they be able to afford that?

Rgds
dell

[venomousviper] 23/11/2005 13:37

Theyre only dilutive if excersised as I said the directors are currently raising funds to increase epes stake in ceg to 13.8% so I dont think somehow dell the directors or their assosiates will be excersising their options ..Nice Try..probably best to go back to Caplay and bore them with your usual matchbox style analysis.!

[dell314] 23/11/2005 13:31

VV - have you been researching synonyms for faeces today? Well done!

Incidentally, do you understand the dilutive effects of convertibles and warrants, or do you believe that they are just some funny words to pop into the annual report?

Rgds
dell

[venomousviper] 23/11/2005 13:23

"The directors and others associated with EPE have shown their belief in the
future of the Company and its strategy by putting their own money into the issue

You ignorant piece of cr@p dell314 you are so full of sh!t you think the directors are going to sell into the market when they are trying to raise funds you incredible unbelievable MORON!

[dell314] 23/11/2005 13:11

VV - Whilst I fully appreciate that you are an ignorant cretin, you might understand my presence here more, if you realise that encarter invited me over for a look.

I haven't really looked at the stock in any detail yet, as I was hoping that encarter might have done some preparation before inviting me.

However, surely those warrants and convertibles all exercisable at 5p would tend to slow any share price movement above that level, hence upside from here might be a tad limited. Hmmm?

All IMHO, DYOR etc.

Rgds
dell

[venomousviper] 23/11/2005 13:10

Theyre a rollover davehome.

[davehome] 23/11/2005 13:08

2 Big sells just gone through. Or are they Buys ? Anyone out there have more info than me ?

[britishbear] 23/11/2005 13:05

That was a rather venomous reply to poor Dell. He was only trying to help.