Europasia Education Share Discussion Threads

[pljohnson] 25/10/2005 18:43

Although 3/10 for the quality of the rns I agree. But a 1 for 5 consolidation makes sense and they are very much becoming china focussed which will add premium value to share price imho in due course.

I think we had a china mini boom that ended early this year, but the real boom is still to come. For me this is a time to get my positions in place and then sit and wait.

With the limited stock around at this level of small cap it will be a fight to get in once the uplift in sector begins.

IMHO

[krishall] 25/10/2005 18:18

plj... as I thought .... you'd be the first person to respond! Rgs, KH

[krishall] 25/10/2005 17:05

I wonder what the average EPE student would make of the Fundraising announcement if they were given the text as a project to translate in to plain English?

Any ardent EPE followers care to air their thoughts on the Fundraising announcement?

[pljohnson] 23/10/2005 12:50

btw I think epe is more likely to be on aim in two years time than ofex. Once student numbers rise to 15,000 then the company should be making 5-6mn profit pa, which on a pe of 12X reflecting stable underlying education business with growth prospects suggests a value of 60-72mn.

As we own 20% epe would have an interest of 12-14mn at that stage.

Thats why I am reasonably invested here.

Also I think the underlying cash generation of E2000 as noted by encarter gives this company underlying strength. Whilst they may not have enough cash lying around to throw 1mn into the top up stake in ceg directly, they should have enough cash generation through E2000 to keep the underlying business going.

My guess is that they are looking for a decent rerate on the back of CEG to enable them to start building stakes in other businesses through paper issue and of course from any cash they release from ceg as they move forward.


imho

[pljohnson] 23/10/2005 12:44

Not listed on new applications on ofex yet, Does anyone know how long b4 listing the details have to be declared??

[pljohnson] 21/10/2005 18:14

Yep I agree encarter - have to say I am keen to see the float of ceg done and dusted. But then again we hold (I assume) 20% of a £2.5mn profit business that is intent on quadrupling in the next 3 years. So if we assumed profits conservatively doubled then epe share would be 1mn per annum.

And market cap of epe 2mn. Probably should be nearer 5p and I hope will be soon once the ceg float addressed and the real value of epe (ceg and English 2000).

And you would hope that once they deal with ceg they will move on and develop a wider portfolio that attracts even more business.

We will see.

[encarter] 18/10/2005 22:01

I'm think E2000 is producing some cash flow so hopefully they won't need to raise any extra cash unless it's for growth. I'm sure we will get some good news over the next couple of months and i'm looking to top up but just trying to judge the bottom.

[encarter] 17/10/2005 08:36

Thanks pl.

[pljohnson] 15/10/2005 13:21

only in my head. something about the need to get ceg away and exiting the investment successfully which i think falls into the nss category.

realistically we have a stake in ceg that exit or no is currently producing (at 20%) stake net profits pa of 500k attributable to epe.

ceg is looking to increase the number of students from 5,000 to 20,000 over the next three years (I think) and you can imagine the potential uplift in profits that could produce. even if profits only double then epe shre will be 1mn per annum.

and we have English 2000 our UK base, a number of other overseas connections and evidently a burgening book of potential projects.

the sheer depth of potential for this stock is impressive but they need to generate cash flow from the ceg stake or possibly demonstrate the net asset value of their business over the next few months, see an uplift in share price and nip back to the market for some more cash. If the shares are 2p plus (4.5mn I think they could raise another 500-750k without too many blinking).

alternatively they may choose to buy other businesses for paper, which should not prove too much of a problem if the share price is on the way up.

my guess is that we will see a wholesale advancement in the epe portfolio in 2006 which may actually start later this year (but probably not)

I would like to see 2p+ for the share price by the end of 2005 which equate to 4.5mn at current shares.

but bear in mind that at the moment we have a stake in ceg that one would hope is worth 5mn and the rest of the business, goodwill and potential must be worth another 2-3p. so medium term with no new developments I am hoping for 3p plus to value the business at 7.5mn.

this is all imho but I think and hope an epe re-rating is around the corner (btw I have been wrong on this for 16mths and we do have a seller holder the price down at the mo imho)

[encarter] 14/10/2005 22:42

Do you have the full text?

[pljohnson] 14/10/2005 21:13

investors chronicle mention today. consider epe to be good value and have to say i agree..

[encarter] 13/10/2005 22:41

Yes it looks that way, but people sell for all kinds of reasons. As far as we know the float's still going ahead so i'll continue to hold.
Of topic i've posted some interesting info on the BGT bb. If anyones got any spare cash it's worth taking a look.

[pljohnson] 13/10/2005 22:18

i think we have a seller in our midst. 600k buys 2day and then wham 500k sell

[encarter] 10/10/2005 01:26

Here's the registration

[encarter] 10/10/2005 01:06

AGI may come in much cheaper than that but this years profit came from 5000 students and they will have 20000 buy 2007 so as an investment it's sound.

Anyway i think AGI are now China Education Group.


I expect them to switch to AIM in the future.

[pljohnson] 09/10/2005 21:33

just had another thought. agi might be listing with a cap of only 11mn. if epe ar buying 8% at £1mn then 100% is 10-11mn ish.

that would put agi on a value of only 4X post tax earnings. which seems very low for a high growth but inherently stable education business. but if so then epe's 20% is wortha little over 2mn and the whole of the business imho approx 4mn. then we would only be undervalued by about 25%.

[pljohnson] 09/10/2005 21:04

dont know if you guys noticed but they corrected that trade from 30.9 to a rollover 7.8mn (they prev had it as 7.8mn sell 780k buy.

I could be horribly wrong here but I think we have one of two options:

1. Big seller in the wings (but why - when we are 1month away from agi ipo)

2. Bit of a mm treeshake prior (but why very little volume moving around with big dips or rises)

Cant see any other reason for the move down?? Any comments???


imho

[pljohnson] 09/10/2005 19:55

well a very lowly realistic asset value could be :

English 2000 1mn
AGI (at 20% of 25mn valuation (10pe on 2.5mn current yr earnings) 5mn

Other business elements, mkt listing, goodwill, cash etc 1mn

7mn

fully diluted share inc convertible (assuming all sold) about 3.3mn I think

so about 2.10 - 2.20 p per share

current 0.85p sp, so I hope for 150% upside in next couple of months.

only question is if they can get the remaining 500k of the convertible away...

[encarter] 07/10/2005 10:11

Funny old game init?

[pljohnson] 05/10/2005 10:59

mms trying a squeeze I think. cant buy or sell more than 150k online so looks reasonably stable.

[gaybriefs] 05/10/2005 10:38

I think this is a record low Im waiting for 0.75p and then watch the buying start.!

[dusseldorf] 05/10/2005 07:27

encarter - was always a similar case with BSP, I had been holding and accumulating for nearly years before the market began to wake up and positive news released. EPE will have its day and the true profit to be had is by accumulating into these lows.

[encarter] 04/10/2005 23:38

All we can do is rely on the facts which point to EPE being very undervalued. Once they get the float away we will see them nearer their true value............hopefully.