Europa Oil & Gas (holdin... Share Discussion Threads

[suetballs] 15/1/2024 12:00

Just been sorting out my old files.
Bought my first eog shares on 21/02/2011 - at 39p. Bought some more the following month at 42p. That was for a total holding of 10k shares.
And ffs I'm stll here - great investing!!
Suet

[meanreverter] 15/1/2024 09:11

Greypanther2: My calculation of the range 93.6–97.3% (N.B. the first number is not 93.5 or 93.65) is based on three assumptions: (1) the CoS of each prospect is 60–70%; (2) the prospects are independent [unlikely!]; (3) “success”; means that at least one prospect is successful.

As rederic1 says, you need to work out the chance of failure (meaning failure of all three prospects): this is between 30% × 30% × 30% = 2.7% and 40% × 40% × 40% = 6.4%. Correspondingly, the CoS will be between 93.6% and 97.3%. White's percentage, 91%, lies outside this range, and so he must have disregarded one or more of these three assumptions — probably the second one.

[suetballs] 15/1/2024 09:01

Wressle pays the expenses and will not be sold.
Let's hope EG brings success - imo Ireland is not going to happen.
Suet

[talkman2] 15/1/2024 08:44

So what is the current share price of Europa telling us ?

[grannyboy] 15/1/2024 08:41

Share buybacks are a total waste of time, it's news and development of assets that increase the share price, if people see progress THEY will invest in the shares.

[talkman2] 15/1/2024 08:40

A buy of 20,000 shares( £200 ) has gone through . Is this more director share-buying 😂

[talkman2] 15/1/2024 08:37

All Will Holland’s big developments have led to an all-time low share price . Says it all. No market interest .

[currypasty] 15/1/2024 08:36

sell wressle to heyco for 2p a share and hand out a divi?

[talkman2] 15/1/2024 08:35

This is why we need a share buy-back in place . This share is a dead-dog

[suetballs] 15/1/2024 08:25

The share price says it all really - "will" we ever see a rabbit out of the hat?
Suet - definitely a stale shareholder.

[spangle93] 14/1/2024 18:31

greypanther/meanreverter

As I noted at the presentation, I think the prospects are not totally independent, so any statistical approach based on independence falls the credibility test at the first fence.

However, I think the way they are playing it is thus (not condoning, just speculating it's what they are doing)

Let's say they ARE independent, and the chance of success is 50% on each. Then we can liken it to tossing a coin. If you toss a coin, the chance of it not being tails is 1 in 2, so if you toss it twice, the chance of it NOT being tails on either is 1 in 4, and toss 3x, the chance of NOT being tails on ANY of the 3 tosses is 1 in 8. Or the other way round, the chance of at least one outcome of tails in 3 tosses is 87.5%.

If you say, then CoS is 66.6% on each, then the chance of getting a negative outcome on all 3 independent targets is 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 or 4%, so the chance of at least one coming in is 96%.

[rederic1] 14/1/2024 17:49

Is it not just a simple calculation of the chance of all three prospects being a failure? Which is 40%x40%x40% - leaving a 93.5% chance of one of them being a success?

[greypanther2] 14/1/2024 14:35

Hi meanreverter. Like you I'm confused by:
"If each prospect is independent of the others, the CoS will then lie in the range 93.6–97.3%".
IMO this can't be right. If each prospect is independent of the others, which they probably are not on this particular block, then the CoS for each one must still be 60% to 70%. However, you can calculate the chances of ALL THREE prospects being successful as: 0.60 x 0.60 x 0.60 (= 21.6%) to 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 (=34.3%).Does that make better sense? I still can't see where the better than 90% (93.65 to 97.3%) comes from.

[christy41] 11/1/2024 17:22

WH did however say in one of the recent interviews that he had talked to the majority of the large holders and he had their support.
Time will tell no doubt.

[jedc1] 11/1/2024 17:06

I think there are a number of disgruntled shareholders. BGF have lost £2mm and Polus have lost two thirds of their value. They may think cut their losses. It is a widespread sentiment.

[slicethepie] 11/1/2024 14:50

Does anyone know if oddie is still involved, whilst no longer a Ned he may be a paid advisor / consultant.

[enfranglais] 11/1/2024 14:29

When you thought "it can`t get worse, yup, it just did"!!
That`s what happens when you promote someone beyond their capabilities!!!!!!

[currypasty] 11/1/2024 12:52

very odd £50k's worth in one pop

[christy41] 11/1/2024 12:51

No idea really but he is a disgruntled investor with quite a few shares.
Seems an odd time and price to sell at but if you’ve had enough there’s never a good time.

[currypasty] 11/1/2024 12:43

PB... has that fizzled out, or are they trying again ?

[christy41] 11/1/2024 12:42

PB perhaps?

[talkman2] 09/1/2024 08:35

A purchase of 20 shares has gone through . Could this be another director share buy ?