|Makes a relaxing change to be looking forward to clinical trial results without the usual degree of risk.|
Yes, SS stated in one recent meeting (I cannot remember which one) that results were due this month, so that means next week week. Valuation wise it should shift analyst estimates -40p for a fail and +40p for a successful outcome (approx).|
|N+1 Singer have increased their target for Ergomed from 293 to 360. Zoptrex phase III results due from Aeterna Zentaris any day now.|
|Large buy by the chariman a positive signal IMHO.
Latest Equity Development article on Ergomed titled '£70m contracted revenues still to come' with target price of up to 437p.
Zoptrex phase III results should be out in April and hoping this will give the share price the next boost up.|
|Thanks for that Timbo.
Very large buy today from Chairman Peter George.
"Ergomed, a profitable UK-based group dedicated to the provision of specialised services to the pharmaceutical industry and the development of new drugs, announces that on 3 April 2017, Mr Peter George, Chairman of the Company, bought 100,000 ordinary shares of 1p each in the Company ("Share(s)") at a price of 190p per Share."
|Given today's RNS, I thought I remind myself what Sepranolone is all about
The partner's Web site is here:
Sepranolone is the latest addition to the development portfolio (acquired at the end of last year), so worth a re-read of the Equity Development note that was issued following the Sepranolone deal:
On 1st November 2016, Ergomed announced a new co-development partner, Asarina Pharma AB, for the Phase IIb clinical trial (multi-centre, multinational, randomised trial to start in 2017) of Sepranolone (UC1010) as a targeted treatment for patients with premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD). Ergomed will co-invest, conducting the clinical trial.
In return Ergomed will receive an equity stake in Asarina. Asarina recently raised €7m (2nd Nov 2016) to invest further in its therapy.
PMDD is the most severe form of Premenstrual Syndrome affecting c3-8% of all women and can include regular monthly symptoms of depression, anxiety, irritability, mood changes and loss of emotional control. These symptoms tend to happen in the latter, luteul, part of the menstrual cycle and lasts until the start of the woman’s period.
Current treatment ranges from anti-depressants, oral contraceptives, mood stabilisers used in bipolar disorder, chemical menopause, and hysterectomy.
There is increasing awareness around this disease and recognition that treatment is
beneficial, though not specific to the indication unlike Sepranolone.
Asarina’s therapeutics, Sepranolone, is a proprietary, first-in-class, endogenous, small molecule, that acts as a GABA-A modulating steroid antagonist (GAMSA). Sepranolone is the first product developed exclusively for PMDD. To date, Asarina has completed an exploratory, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, clinical phase I/II study involving 120 women with PMDD to evaluate the safety, efficacy and pharmacokinetics of Sepranolone. The study showed good safety and tolerability, and a statistically significant improvement in PMDD symptoms compared to placebo.
The drug is currently delivered subcutaneously, and the downsides of this inconvenient route were considered to be outweighed by the benefits from symptomatic relief seen by the clinical trial participants.
Asarina are developing a follow on that will look at alternate, more convenient, oral, delivery routes. With a share of the business, Ergomed could see further upside from an oral delivery route. This is yet to be included in the valuation.|
|If you would like to hear management present the preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2016 for Ergomed we will be hosting a webinar on Wednesday 29th March at 1:45pm. The presentation will last approximately 30 mins and there will then be an opportunity for Q&A.
To join please register at: hxxps://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5654169658073966851
If you would like to submit any questions for management ahead of the meeting please send them to email@example.com
The Equity Development Team|
|No idea why. Results 'end of March' according to last tarding update. I think stop losses activated. Broker target prices vary between 275 (lowest) and 315 (highest). I'll be buying on Monday.|
|Any reason for the dip??|
|Great buying opportunity. IMHO.|
|Ergomed will be at the Proactive investor's evening on May 18th, I've booked my place.
|Ergomed are attending Bio Europe - in Barcelona in March. They are listed as an investor so I guess on the look out for new co development opportunities.
|More on Modus
|Thanks for links.
I really haven't looked closely enough at Ergomed's development partners but Modus looks very promising. Didn't realise that is was a spin out from the highly prestigious Karolinska Institutet and was funded primarily by the Karolinska Development Fund. Sevuparin has Orphan Drug Status in both Europe and the US. Let's hope it lives up to its promise as Sickle Cell is a dreadfully painful disease with very poor treatment options.|
|Here's the home page and press release from Modus:
Referring to the Numis initiation note (Oct 2016), Ergomed owned 5% of the equity (estimate) in Modus who's principle asset is Sevuparin for the treatment of Sickle cell disease.
Peak sales potential for Sevuparin are >$1Bn and it could launch in 2019 - 2020, they have assigned a 16% chance of success and a risk adjusted NPV of £10M based on risk adjusted DCF which comes out at equivalent to 25p/share for Ergomed.|
|Modus raises £2.9 million...
|thank you Timbo
i hope you do not mind i quoted your 105, in an answer to a question on LSE
|'Numis today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ergomed Plc (LON:ERGO) and set its price target at 277p.'
Equity development: '. A sum-of-the-parts valuation analysis suggests that the Services businesses are valued at c.202p / share. With the Products businesses added to this, the group valuation increases to 301p / share.'
'Stifel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ergomed Plc (LON:ERGO) and raised its price target to 315p (from 300p).'|
Thanks - good stuff.|
Yes, that is my understanding, they get a fixed share of all payments and they contribute a fixed share of future development costs.
Numis estimate Ergomed's share of Lorediplon at 10% (uncapped)|
|speaking from a medical background this lorideplon RNS is very good news. exciting share to be in right now. IMHO.|
|Yes really good news, and interesting comments re. valuation of Lorediplon.
Ferrer have already licensed Lorediplon to Ildong in Eastern Asia and today have said:-
"we will seek to advance the product towards the market through additional partnerships"
I'm not sure of the terms of Ergomed's agreement with Ferrer but presumably, if any further licensing deals are struck, Ergomed would be entitled to a cut of any upfront payments?|
|Whilst on the subject of Numis valuation’s, the other valuations and probabilities of obtaining regulatory approval are as follows:
PeproStat: 29p ( 27%)
Ready Flow: 7p (5%)
Lorediplon: (see above)
Zoptrex: 45p (40%)
Sevuparin: 25p (16%)|
|Today's news has prompted me to look at the Numis research note (October 2016) referred to in my earlier posts
Numis were valuing Lorediplon as worth 29p/share before this result (risk adjusted with 25% chance of success), furthermore they estimate that Neurology compounds generally have a probability of 50% of getting approval (following a successful phase II), so they will presumably now value Loredipion at 58p/share. Oh happy days!|