Ergomed Share Discussion Threads

[ihatemms] 08/10/2020 11:04

Tongosti - are you back in or missing the fun? There’s no stopping this share and it wouldn’t surprise if it hit £10 before the end of the year. Pharmocology is all the the rage now. There are very few shares in issue and very few people are prepared to sell which keeps on driving the shares up. Barfield is a superstar in this business area and have little doubt we will be at double this price with 1-2 years.

[blueflame] 05/10/2020 09:53

Weekend comment in SCSW that he thinks they are still undervalued.

[mfhmfh] 01/10/2020 10:44

From Strategic Equity Capital Plc - Final Results released today:

Ergomed

Description

Is a pharmaceutical services company. The company operates across 55 countries and has provided and managed clinical development, trial management and pharmacovigilance services for over 100 clients across the pharmaceuticals industry.

Thesis

Our investment in 2018 was premised on strategic change; the company ceasing co-development activities which delivered no return on investment, and encouraging the company to divest of its clinical research services and pharmacovigilance divisions which we believed to be valuable strategic assets in high growth niches of the healthcare space.

Developments in the period

Over the past 18 months, the company has significantly strengthened its management team and board of directors and a clearer focus on its core competences has yielded impressive results. The company believes there is additional value to be created through further integrating the two divisions and taking share in the global CRO market. We have materially reduced our position at a significant profit but retain a holding in what we believe is a highly strategic asset in a long term structurally growing market.

[tongosti] 30/9/2020 16:54

Another distribution day fellas. The uptrend is still fine unless we get about 5 distribution days in short order. Out but following closely ...

[tongosti] 28/9/2020 15:48

Like I said, last Friday was the fourth highest day ever volume wise. I realise it's a free country though so happy to disagree pal. GL

[hpcg] 28/9/2020 15:11

I'm not sure I agree with that. The absolute volume is not very high, especially not by US standards or some more popular London listed small caps. I would say it is the day to day volume that is anomalous. A normal day is about 30,000 shares, which is a paltry 0.06% of the outstanding. In other words it is near enough impossible to buy a position of any meaningful size in the open market. Hence what we have just seen where big buyer(s) and big seller(s) have agreed on a fair value to exchange. I would argue there is no price signal at all for most of the days ERGO is traded and that the high volume days are the only price points to take any notice of.

[tongosti] 28/9/2020 14:42

Also - re no of shares traded relative to float I would say that's meaningless. What's relevant is the absolute volume traded in a historical context. Last Friday's volume traded was the fourth highest ever

[tongosti] 28/9/2020 14:36

10x 50dma of volume is a hell of a (not some) distribution day pal. This is great underlying business and been a a good trade post 500's b/o but odds for a meaningful consolidation are quite high at the moment. On the weekly timeframe, euphoria is at the highest level since the company is floated. Like you, I am also following closely for a potential reentry but I have the feeling I will have to wait for a fair bit. Good luck.

[hpcg] 28/9/2020 14:14

tongosti - It does look like some kind of distribution, but on the other hand an eager buyer or buyers given the very tight doji. My data source has 2.7m shares traded which is about 5.5% of the shares outstanding or £21.6m at 800p. Liquidity works both ways of course so the buyers must feel happier about what they were paying than they did in the last liquidity period in July which forced the price up by a quarter. Price action today suggests the buyers were sated more than the sellers so on the balance of probabilities I have sold out on anticipation of a pull back, or at least a cap on further gains for now.

[sharesoc] 27/9/2020 21:27

For those interested, we are running a ShareSoc Webinar with Ergomed on the 6 October 2020. You can register here:

[tongosti] 27/9/2020 12:14

You're wrong pal - google the definition of a distribution day.

[hpcg] 25/9/2020 19:37

Yes they were all buys. Every trade is a buy, that's how it works, even for micro caps with market makers. Indeed the larger the volume the less significant they are as it will all just be passing through their hands.

[blueflame] 25/9/2020 16:23

Some huge trades gone through with no movement. This stock usually moves up or down on very little volume. I would like to think they were buys though.

[hpcg] 23/9/2020 14:16

My observation is that growth investor do not use either TTM or NTM earnings as a metric. They tend to look at addressable market, revenue growth and potential market cap. For example what to pay if ERGO can get to a billion pound market cap in 3 years? That is a circa 200% gain just from waiting. What if it doesn't do as well and only doubles?

This isn't a prediction of the future, just an observation about how the some parts of the market work. It is also the part of the market that has crushed those that won't buy anything with a PE over 10, or a PEG under 0.7.

[sidam] 23/9/2020 12:35

Edison valuation in note is based on a 20% premium to their peer group and a PER of well north of 30 for next year. I am not sure what hpcg considers what is rapid growth. But analyst’s projections equate with a growth rate of less than 20% in revenue and EPS YoY for 21 v 20. In my opinion that is above average but far from rapid.

[phillis] 23/9/2020 12:18

you are probably capable of doing the relevant sums and making your own judgement

[hpcg] 23/9/2020 11:45

Why can't a rapidly growing company have a PE of 40, or 80? Numerous examples around the world.

[phillis] 23/9/2020 11:40

Edison are paid by the Company

Assume a P?E of 20 and required eps is 42p

[bermudashorts] 22/9/2020 21:48

Richard Barfield discusses interims here:-

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/929622/ergomed-confirms-revenues-are-up-over-14-and-cash-position-is--very-strong--929622.html

[blueflame] 22/9/2020 21:24

Edison's note in full with their new 845p target. https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/adj-ebitda-upgrade-despite-industry-challenges/27801

[grabster] 22/9/2020 15:44

Reported in Shares magazine this afternoon:

Market & Company News:

Ergomed profit up 44% as Covid-related trials boost business

22 September 2020, 14:03Source - SMW

Pharmaceutical services company Ergomed posted a 44% rise in first-half profit after it won new business, including in Covid-19-related trials, and substantially boosted revenue in North America.

The company also said it was planning a capital reduction, in light of its financial progress 'and to increase its ability to pay dividends, to facilitate any prospective buy back of shares and for any other general corporate purposes'.

Pre-tax profit for the six months through June increased to £6.0m, up from £4.1m on-year, as revenue climbed 15% to £40.4m, including by 79% in North America.

The company did not declare an interim dividend.

'Ergomed has delivered exceptional progress both operationally and financially during the first half of 2020, continuing to demonstrate our ability to drive sustained growth through a clear focus on our service model strategy,' chief executive Miroslav Reljanovic said.

'We responded robustly to the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, with strong revenue and profit growth, a growing order book and sales momentum across the business.'

'We expect to see this momentum continue into the second half of the year, driven by further demand for our PV and CRO services.'

'We will continue to invest for organic growth and efficiency with a disciplined approach to strategic acquisition opportunities and are firmly positioned to realise our potential as a leading global provider of specialist services to the pharmaceutical industry.'

At 2:03pm: (LON:ERGO) Ergomed Plc share price was +85p at 775p

[rampmeister] 22/9/2020 15:09

PVUSA doubled their revenue during the period and looks to be a prime revenue growth producer going forward.

RM

[phillis] 22/9/2020 14:12

V overvalued based on expected eps
Good business model though
All out for the moment