Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 26/10/2007 10:28

Fed, the 2000 cuts weren't bullish at all...

[briarberry] 26/10/2007 09:54

Earnings, lots of misses, too many for a bull market, not to mention the large margins that most missed by...


Motorola Inc.'s third-quarter earnings plummeted 94 percent

Nissan Motor Co. reported Friday a 27 percent decline in profit for the July-September quarter

Wendy's International Inc. said Thursday that its third-quarter earnings fell 57 percent from a year ago

Comcast on Thursday posted a 54 percent lower quarterly profit

Eastman Chemical Co.'s profit fell 79 percent in the third quarter due to restructuring charges, the chemicals, plastics and fibers company said Thursday.

Commerce Bancorp Inc., posted a quarterly loss on Thursday

[briarberry] 25/10/2007 20:21

Gasoline prices starting up, SUV sales might take a hit ?

[briarberry] 25/10/2007 19:38

DJ Risky Slice Of Subprime Index Falls To Record Low Of 18.5 Cents (on the dollar)

[briarberry] 25/10/2007 19:20

FT.com -

commercial mortgage-backed securities market

CMBS spreads are around the level where RMBS were several months ago.

That possibility has grown in recent days as spreads on CMBSs have widened. Since the start of last week, the spreads (which measure the difference between rates on those bonds and comparable Treasuries) have gone up more than one full percentage point.

Analysts say the CMBS market is a victim of contagion spreading from the market for bonds backed by subprime residential mortgages. Downgrades of subprime debt have led to margin calls and triggered forced sales by debt investors, hitting a growing number of asset classes.

Structured investment vehicles are believed to be among the big CMBS sellers, contributing to the growing imbalance of supply and demand.

The problems in the CMBS market are note­worthy because commercial property prices have held up so far. Late payments and defaults remain low compared with the residential real estate market.

However, analysts have expressed concern that rising commercial property prices have led to looser loan standards in the sector. One head of mortgages at a major investment bank said: "Investors have got religion on the risks in the commercial real estate market. They're seeing that it's got over-valued and over-leveraged."

[briarberry] 25/10/2007 15:57

Fed next Tuesday - lots of peeps are saying that the Fed will cut again

I've no idea myself, but I guess they will cut ???

If that is the case, then the market might hold up until then

From what I've heard historically, the rally on the second cut doesn't last as long as the rally on the first cut.

[briarberry] 24/10/2007 22:05

Existing Home Sales - lowest number since 1999 when records began

Sales of existing homes plunged by a record amount in September while median home prices dropped by the largest amount in nearly a year, reflecting deepening problems in the troubled housing market.

Data for the series actually only go back to 1999. The headline rate of 5.040 million is in fact the lowest of the series,

[briarberry] 24/10/2007 21:46

some really bad news out there, this is a good example

Quote

Today the market has to contend with an ugly earnings report from Merrill Lynch, that has a lot more implications than just a bad quarter. Merrill warned just a few weeks ago that it would post a net loss of probably 50 cents a share due to writing down losses of $4.5 billion on collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and sub-prime mortgages. That warning was a shock.

But this morning Merrill reported a loss of $2.82 a share, five times larger than it expected just a few weeks ago, and it is writing down an even more shocking $7.9 billion in losses on CDOs, etc.

down over 5%

[briarberry] 22/10/2007 21:18

MEW

NEW YORK (AP) -- Issuance of securities backed by subprime mortgages and home equity loans remains weak compared to recent history, as rising delinquencies and defaults among the loans continue to drag down the market.

Through Oct. 19, monthly issuance of subprime mortgage and home equity loan-backed securities totaled $2.65 billion, a 94 percent decline from total volume in October 2006, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.


down 100% last week
-- Not one subprime mortgage-backed or home equity loan-backed security was issued during the week ending Oct. 19.

[briarberry] 22/10/2007 14:02

Mortgage Security Bondholders Facing a Cutoff of Interest Payments

By VIKAS BAJAJ - Published: October 22, 2007 - NYTimes

For all the pain in the mortgage market, investors who hold bonds backed by risky home loans have continued to receive their monthly interest payments - until now.

Collateralized debt obligations ... are starting to shut off cash payments to investors in lower-rated bonds as credit-rating agencies downgrade the securities they own ...

Cutting off the cash flow, which is governed by rules and mathematical formulas that vary by security, is expected to accelerate in the months ahead.
...
With such a re-evaluation, owners of collateralized debt obligations ... may be forced to write down mortgage investments beyond the billions they have already written off. Some bonds, for example, may go from being valued at, say, 70 cents on the dollar to becoming largely worthless overnight, bankers and analysts say.

[briarberry] 21/10/2007 22:52

How Big is the Problem at Citigroup? With a hat tip to Polecolaw for the idea, let's compare net tangible assets at Citigroup to the amount at risk at SIVs and conduits. Let's use $160 billion figure for the combined SIV and conduit numbers and see what comparisons we can find.

Citigroup Net tangible assets as of June 30 2007 are $65.5 billion. That's kind of interesting isn't it? Citigroup has $65.5 billion in net tangible assets but $160 billion invested in off balance sheet SIVs and conduits. If a fire sale of those SIVs and conduits resulted in a 25% loss, Citigroup would have net tangible assets of $25.5 billion. If a fire sale of SIVs and conduits resulted in a 41% loss in those SIVs and conduits, Citigroup would have zero net tangible assets.

Does Paulson, the Fed, or Citigroup want to find out what those assets are worth? Of course not. That is the reason for a Don't Ask - Don't Sell policy and approval of Enron Style Accounting by Paulson.

[briarberry] 21/10/2007 21:29

The CEO of Caterpillar said the current downturn in the housing market was the worst since World War II and was likely to weaken further next year.

[briarberry] 21/10/2007 19:29

The big T, $1 Trillion...


This week we learned that Structured Investment Vehicles or SIVs should more properly be termed SIGs or Structured Investment Garbage. Several SIVs worth over $20 billion are closing shop, and investors will lose money. More SIVs are selling assets to meet loan demands. SIVs had issued at the peak about $400 billion worth of asset-backed commercial paper. The total of asset-backed commercial paper was $1.2 trillion. Since July, that has plummeted, nose-dived, crashed to $888 billion, and is on its way to a small fraction of that. In effect, we are taking a trillion dollars of financing for a wide variety of things we need, like credit cards, autos, homes, and corporate loans out of the credit market. That is going to have an impact.

[briarberry] 21/10/2007 13:10

1987 - banks and REITs went bust during the late 1980s property bust, and the 80s property bust was nowhere near as bad as todays 2007 property crash...

before the 1987 crash, First City Bancorporation was a big bank, but by 1988 they were on their way to liquidation (sounds like US:CFC and UK:NRK today)...


At its zenith, First City employed 8,000 people.

But, spurred by tumbling energy prices (they were a Texas bank & hence had oil investments too) and diving real estate values, First City required a 1988 bailout encompassing nearly $1 billion in federal assistance and another $500 million in private equity. Four years later came a grim encore -- the bankruptcy filing of First City Bancorporation after regulators seized the company's 20 Texas banks and forced them into receivership.

[briarberry] 20/10/2007 22:51

Pipeline Attack in Northern Iraq

BAGHDAD, Oct. 19 - In the latest bout of violence around the northern oil city of Kirkuk, insurgents blew up an oil pipeline, battled a convoy carrying bodyguards of a deputy prime minister and ambushed a police chief, Iraqi officials said on Friday.

Meanwhile, a top Kurdish leader issued a statement vowing to "defend" Iraqi Kurdistan from potential attacks by the Turkish Army.

[briarberry] 19/10/2007 11:18

SIV implosion - there must be lots more SIVs in trouble...


Rhinebridge Commercial Paper SIV May Not Repay Debt (Update1) - By Neil Unmack

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Rhinebridge Plc, the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG structured investment vehicle that has lost about half its value, is unlikely to repay all its debt.

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 22:48

more smelly SOX...

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s losses were deeper than analysts feared in the third quarter, but the slumping chip maker said stronger sales of microprocessors and improving cost controls are now helping lift the company out of its financial doldrums.

SanDisk Corp., a maker of flash storage cards, said Thursday its third-quarter earnings fell sharply on charges related to acquisitions and higher costs, but revenue rose on strong demand outside the U.S.

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 22:46

What's in your wallet?

Capital One Financial Corp. posted a third-quarter net loss Thursday, hurt by charges from shutting down its GreenPoint Mortgage business.

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 21:09

4:02[GOOG] Google Q3 net earns $3.38 vs $2.36

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 19:58

DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Hits Record $89.20/Bbl


Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil breached $90 a barrel in New York for the first time as the dollar traded near a record low against the euro, enhancing the appeal of commodities as an investment.

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 14:51

now-a-days, a lot of the biggest US financials rely on investment banking profits...


Bank of America, the third large money-center bank to report earnings this week, said its net income fell 32 percent in the third quarter to $3.70 billion, a much sharper drop than many analysts had been expecting.

Investment banking profits plunged $1.33 billion, or 93 percent, to $100 million, Bank of America said.

Bank of America CFO sees home equity chargeoffs rising
BofA CFO says some fixed income markets won't rebound

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 13:31

initial claims 337K !!!

[briarberry] 18/10/2007 11:06

the good times (boom years) are over...


CHICAGO, Oct. 17 - Suddenly everyone wants more from Chicago's taxpayers.

Mayor Richard M. Daley asked last week for a 15 percent jump in the property tax. Todd H. Stroger, the president of Cook County's board, called on Wednesday for increases in sales, gasoline and parking taxes. And all that does not even begin to address ways of keeping the financially troubled bus and train systems running.

While Chicago's case may be extreme, it is by no means unique. Across the country, local governments are feeling a financial strain driven largely by the nation's real estate downturn. City finance officers predict slowing revenue even as they remain under pressure to keep spending, especially in areas like health care and pensions, according to an annual survey by the National League of Cities.

To handle budget deficits they now expect, many cities are increasing fees for services, and some are considering raising property taxes, said the report, to be released Thursday.