Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 17/10/2007 15:58

CPI - Year-on-year, the overall CPI jumped to up 2.8 percent in September from 1.9 percent in August.

[briarberry] 17/10/2007 15:44

Housing starts fell badly in September, down 10.2 percent to a lower-than-expected annual rate of 1.191 million - the lowest rate since 1993

On a year-on-year basis, overall starts were down 30.8 percent in September, compared to down 27.7 percent in August.

[briarberry] 16/10/2007 21:40

Intel results seem OK

Revenue of $10.1 billion was up 16 percent sequentially
Gross margin was 52.4 percent, up from 46.9 percent in the second quarter.

Q4 2007 Outlook, Revenue: Between $10.5 billion and $11.1 billion.




IBM, I couldn't be bothered to read it all :)

-- Diluted earnings of $1.68 per share, up 16 percent as reported;
-- Total revenues of $24.1 billion, up 7 percent

[briarberry] 16/10/2007 20:17

sounds more like a property market crash everyday...


Home sales in Southern California plunged to the lowest level in more than two decades, as financing with "jumbo" mortgages dropped by half. The median price paid for a home dropped sharply as a result ...

A total of 12,455 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in September. That was down 29.9 percent from 17,755 for the previous month, and down 48.5 percent from 24,195 for September last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last month's sales were the slowest for any month in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The previous low was in February 1995 when 12,459 homes sold. The September sales average is 25,258.

[briarberry] 15/10/2007 22:19

looks like the super SIV is a red herring...

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 23:20

SIVs - So how is this proposal an improvement over the status quo? At least as described in the Journal, the new vehicle is guaranteed by a consortium of banks who are contributing assets. That ought to succeed unless the former ABCP buyers have gotten nervous about the creditworthiness of big banks. If that turns out to be the case, we really have a mess on our hands.

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 15:21

BEING STREET SMART - by Sy Harding
PRICING THOSE DEBT-BACKED SECURITIES. Oct. 12, 2007.

An academic study released a few days ago caught my eye. It said some hedge funds are still not marking down their holdings in mortgage-backed securities as mortgage defaults rise, and the value of those securities decline. The study claims they are doing so deliberately, in order to show more profits than they are actually making, or in the worst case scenario, to hide losses.

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 15:20

SIVs - yes sounds like they are all just trying to hide their losses from the property market crash...


Analysts say that investors have all but stopped buying SIV-affiliated commercial paper, and the worry is that the 30 or so SIVs will unload billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets all at once. That would put intense pressure on prices. As Wall Street firms and hedge funds mark value of similar investments they held to their new lower values, they face potentially huge hits to their profits.

Still, the impact on the biggest banks is even more severe. In times of crisis, they are committed - either legally or to maintain their reputations - to stepping in to buy those securities. Banks have already been buying significant amounts of commercial paper in recent weeks, even though they did not have to. But if they are forced to bring those assets onto their balance sheets, they might be less willing to lend to businesses and consumers. That could set off a credit crunch and thrust the economy into a recession.

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 15:14

SIVs

According to the WSJournal, the U.S. Treasury Department (which convened the talks) and the banks, are "worried about what they see as a threat to financial markets world-wide; the danger that dozens of huge bank-affiliated funds will be forced to unload billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities and other assets, driving down their prices in a fire sale. That could force more big write-offs for the banks, brokerage houses, and hedge funds that own similar investments, and they'd have to mark them down to new lower prices. The ultimate fear: If banks need to write down more assets or are forced to take assets onto their books, that could set off a broader credit crunch than has already been seen."

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 03:07

SIVS & short term commercial paper ABCP - everyones talking about this...


FT, today
(quote)
SIVs forced into deleveraging as sector sees few signs of recovery

....The structured investment vehicles (SIVs) that just three months ago represented a more-than-$400bn industry have been struggling to raise new short-term commercial paper since about mid-July, and consequently have been forced to sell assets - sometimes at firesale prices....The market was given a hard illustration of the pain that can be felt this week when it emerged that Axon Financial, a SIV linked with the US hedge fund TPG-Axon, had taken losses of $110m on sales of $3bn of its investments....Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland said yesterday that the crucial thing to note about Axon was that it was nowhere near as toxic as some other funds....However, the difficulty with this and with selling assets outright is that the best assets with the highest prices will always be used or sold first, meaning that shrinking SIVs end up with a deteriorating portfolio....

www.ft.com

more links

[briarberry] 14/10/2007 01:31

California Nonresidential Building permits (ie Commerical RE) have declined on a YoY basis for 3 straight months.

[briarberry] 13/10/2007 18:35

again, sounds like deflation...


Policy makers are concerned that investors remain reluctant to acquire the paper even if the loans that back them are sound, said the official, who declined to be identified. Setting up a fund would allow SIVs, which own $320 billion of assets, to avoid having to sell their holdings at fire-sale prices and further roil the credit markets.

The amount of asset-backed commercial paper outstanding tumbled to $899 billion in the week ended Oct. 10, from a high of $1.14 trillion at the end of June, according to the Federal Reserve.

[briarberry] 13/10/2007 17:12

Califonia update ($4 trillion - that'll cut down MEW)...


Builders Giving Up On The Sinking Market
In California, Developers Leaving Behind Housing Projects - And Their Tenants

(CBS) In California, where developers have been racing to turn farmers' fields into subdivisions, they're now walking away, leaving houses partially built.

Those who have already moved in wondering what will hit next.

That moving target, collapsing house prices, has already cut $1.2 trillion from the value of American homes. And the losses are mounting, going to $4 trillion by one estimate, by the end of next year.

So developers are scrambling to get rid of houses they can't sell. Many are turning to auctions. (opening bids at 50% off)

If part of the reason for falling prices is overbuilding, it may not be over yet. While construction has slowed builders are still putting up new homes at a rate of more than one million this year.

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 23:02

(WTF!) US Banks - one moment they say everything is OK, 5 mins later you see them begging for handouts...


=WSJ:US Bks Searching For Short-Term Debt Liquidity Solutions

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The largest U.S. banks along with financial regulators
are in confidential discussions to find a solution for a lack of cash
liquidity in one corner of the short-term debt markets, according to people
familiar with the situation.

The plan, which has been in the works for three weeks, is aimed at helping
bank-affiliated investment vehicles that issued tens of billions of dollars in
short-term debt, including commercial paper. According to the people familiar
with the situation, the plan would be to create a so-called super conduit that
would issue short-term debt and serve as a buyer of assets currently held by
SIVs. These assets include securities tied to U.S. mortgages as well as debt
pools called collateralized mortgage obligations.

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 18:28

Import prices - year-on-year rate is 5.2%

Export prices rose 0.3 percent for a 4.5 percent year-on-year rate

PPI - year-on-year rate jumped to up 4.4 percent in September from up 2.1 percent in August

Year-on-year, wages were up 4.1 percent in September, a stronger pace than the 3.9 percent in August. (from last Fridays payrolls)

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 14:20

Beazer Homes reported that 68% of its prospective home buyers canceled their orders in the company's fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Sept. 30. The cancellation rate was almost double the 36% of customers who canceled orders and gave up deposits in the prior quarter.

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 13:44

PPI +1.1% m-o-m

core PPI +0.1%


General Electric on Friday said third-quarter net income rose 14% as the industrial conglomerate said it'll hit Wall Street targets for the coming period.

GE: Credit markets improving, but consumer delinquencies up

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 13:31

retail sales +0.6% m-o-m (it's not inflation adjusted)

[briarberry] 12/10/2007 00:51

The United States of Subprime
Data Show Bad Loans Permeate the Nation; Pain Could Last Years

The analysis of loan data by The Wall Street Journal indicates that from 2004 to 2006, when home prices peaked in many parts of the country, more than 2,500 banks, thrifts, credit unions and mortgage companies made a combined $1.5 trillion in high-interest-rate loans. Most subprime loans, which are extended to borrowers with sketchy credit or stretched finances, fall into this basket.

High-rate mortgages accounted for 29% of the total number of home loans originated last year, up from 16% in 2004. About 10.3 million high-rate loans were made in the past three years, out of a total of 43.6 million mortgages.