Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[boonkoh] 07/6/2021 12:26

Dividends: they'll only confirm once the booking season for 21/22 is over, so I expect an update towards Aug-Oct.NAV: no reason why if shouldn't go up at least 5% this FY. Residential is up about 10%. Not like for like but the alternative to student accommodation is residential accommodation. So if that is going up in rent or less availability, then Empiric can put up its pricing. Also the increase in UCAS numbers this year will put further pressure on shortage of student housing, which can only benefit Empiric.The other trend is Chinese students now not being welcomed in USA or Australia, will want to come to UK. Also the visa rules are now relaxed, so easier for them to stay after studies and work and live here.

[makinbuks] 07/6/2021 09:49

Looks like more asset disposals to come, encouraging that they are ahead of NAV but slightly suspicious they don't say by how much

[stevegrass777] 07/6/2021 09:19

Update is OK, obviously bookings will accelerate as the lock down starts to lift, and I suppose the vaccine rollout to the younger ones will help bookings. Sale of Exeter (don't know what it was on the books at) but residential property does seem to be going up fast certainly where I live it is, ESP properties seem like they would convert into residential rather easily. All in all esp are making progress on recovery and that is good to see. Hopefully more progress on bookings in the next update/later on in the year.

[panshanger1] 07/6/2021 08:54

No news on dividend

[boonkoh] 07/6/2021 08:50

Encouraging. Recent sale gives more confidence to NAV, at least the same as last time or slightly higher.Key is bookings for 21/22 academic year. Not good that the pace is behind pre covid, it understandable. Students have been scared of stories over the past year, and delaying booking till last minute. Fundamentally if student numbers are growing, then there's never enough student accommodation. So squeaky bum time but should come good by end July in terms of occupancy rates.

[mattphillips940] 25/5/2021 23:26

Also 1.2 Million shares in GCP Student and 5 million shares of unite sold at the same time. Shares in Empiric and Digs down because of limited liquidity at this time of day but should recover under normal volume. Not sure if any underlying reason for the sale or if sales are related and just a biggish investor rotating into something else?

[boonkoh] 25/5/2021 20:45

Someone was keen to offload 1.5m of shares at a big discount!

[spangle93] 12/5/2021 09:06

Nice to see a recovery in the student accommodation sector Any ideas what Black Rock is doing? I can't follow the recent holdings accouncements

[panshanger1] 05/4/2021 08:53

Missed that on Thursday Berenberg upgraded to buy from hold with 100 pence target

[panshanger1] 01/4/2021 09:59

Decent volume going through too

[panshanger1] 24/3/2021 13:58

52 week high ( and post COVID )Good sign I would have thought

[stevegrass777] 21/3/2021 22:39

Yes emperic properties look very posh on the hello student website I'm sure they're not cheap. Also I feel emperic properties would convert into residential rather easily if demand didn't improve. It's a shame the article didn't go into nav and even loan to value etc. Maybe short term they are right to favour Unite, but esp is cheaper and if you look a little further ahead I'm sure will close the gap on NAV. So maybe a little more risk of plenty more reward in my opinion.

[makinbuks] 19/3/2021 16:50

You are quite right, and its no different in the magazine. share price 1020p, IFRS NAV 809p is a premium of 20%! I did have a very quick look at Unite earlier in the week, just wondering if the time was right to buy in but quickly concluded they were overpriced and I would be better adding to my ESP position. They are in very different markets. Several of my children have been in Unite accommodation and I'm far too Scottish to pay for ESP!

[stevegrass777] 18/3/2021 21:25

Looking at IC tonight (on the app) and they are comparing Unite to ESP and it has Unite at a 26% discount to nav yet the figures suggest a 26% premium to NAV for unite. And ESP obviously has a big discount to NAV, they favour Unite but fail to mention NAV and on the app it seems wrong. Hopefully the printed version will be correct.

[stevegrass777] 18/3/2021 11:30

Exactly esp will eventually trade at NAV and those who picked shares up at this level and bellow should be rewarded. Great defencive industry usually and should revert to that once things settle down.

[boonkoh] 17/3/2021 13:42

Huge discount to NAV of 104p.Historically usually trading between 0% and 10% discount to NAV, so there's plenty of upside later this year when back to normal occupancy levels and bookings confirmed closer to start of academic year.

[makinbuks] 17/3/2021 12:27

Yes, FY21 is a write off of course, but my hope is that we see a full restart from September and therefore in 2022 the share price goes to around £1 and we see the dividend restarted at 3 or 4p. Surprised (pleasantly) they sold properties in Portsmouth, good news that all bookings are now managed in house

[stevegrass777] 17/3/2021 12:16

The results don't look bad considering what a bad year the whole industry has had, ESP have held up the business rather well and should do very well once restrictions are lifted. Students still want a go to university and online is a very mediocre experience. So I'm expecting things to get back to normal as soon as they can.

[makinbuks] 16/3/2021 15:23

Yes these are all positives and thanks for highlighting them. I expect the NAV to hold up on this basis but revenue and profit recovery will only come from a full restart in the Autumn and assuming there isn't another wave. If that were established we would revert to pre covid levels quickly

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 13:22

Thanks for posting

[okosling] 16/3/2021 12:27

A bit more from Unite's announcement on the supply situation: "The PBSA sector now provides homes to over 680,000 students, representing around one-third of the UK's student population. At this level, there still remains a c.310,000 shortfall in beds compared to the numbers of 1st-year and international students, before taking account of the increasing numbers of 2nd and 3rd-year students who are choosing this type of accommodation." Unite also report that delivery of their Old BRI development in Bristol, planned for this year, has been delayed by Covid; will now be ready for the 2022/23 academic year. That's a short-term positive for Empiric, as they have two properties in Bristol.

[boonkoh] 16/3/2021 10:07

Latest UCAS application stats. Note the YoY comparison was pre covid, which makes the rise even better.While non-EU international student applications leaped to a record 85,610, those from within the EU have decreased to 26,010, marking a decline of 40%.Applications from China and India have increased to 25,810 (+21%) and 7,820 (+25%) respectively, while US applications have seen the "largest proportional increase of any major nation", up 61% to 6,670.Good to see international up, hopefully at the unis that Empiric targets.

[okosling] 16/3/2021 10:04

Unite results out this morning. Outlook statements very positive, referring to the increase in UCAS application numbers as mentioned by Maddox in post #1095. Also positive demographics: "The outlook for student numbers remains strong. Demographic growth is significant over the next decade, with the 18-year-old population returning to 2010's height by 2024 and continuing to grow strongly thereafter. This would imply demand for around 220,000 additional UK undergraduate places by 2030 at current participation rates." Also comments on UK government policy: "The UK Government's international education strategy is targeting growth in international student numbers to at least 600,000 by 2030, representing at least an additional 80,000 international students. In September 2019, the Government announced a new two-year post-study work visa for international students (three years for postgraduates), starting from the 2020/21 academic year. The change has already aided the UK's international competitiveness in the Higher Education sector, leading to significant growth in demand from China and India over the past two years. The Government is actively seeking to broaden the demand pool from international markets with opportunities for the UK to increase its market share of student arrivals from Africa and Asian countries, outside of China." It clearly bodes well for Empiric also, hence this morning's share price increase.

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 08:45

12 month high

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 08:43

Gaining yesterday and today before results tomorrow I notice