Empiric Student Property Share Chat (ESP)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Empiric Student Property	LSE:ESP	London	Ordinary Share	GB00BLWDVR75	ORD GBP0.01

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	+0.25p	+0.25%	101.50p	101.50p	101.75p	102.00p	101.50p	102.00p	154,530	09:57:46

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment & Services	21.6	28.1	7.3	13.9	611.23

Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3576 to 3600 of 3600 messages

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Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
21/9/2017 08:13	Valid point on the big REITS, albeit they have their own problems (retail exposure). Agree that ESP only a buy on a discount.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
20/9/2017 20:16	From when I last checked it was only at a few per cent discount and arguably should be more given it lacklustre performance and spiralling costs. If you're after discounts look at British Land, a far superior company in every way and on a 35% discount.	riverman77	Read Full Thread Reply
20/9/2017 14:59	I'd disagree with "uninvestable" mainly for the NAV, at which it's trading at a discount. But agreed re admin costs etc.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
20/9/2017 14:46	For me - this is uninvestable until they demonstrate they can get property costs under control. These are, and have been running at 40% of the rent (site management, utilities & repairs). Add to that the growing admin costs and the cost of finance and returns for investors are wafer thin.	belgraviaboy	Read Full Thread Reply
16/9/2017 14:58	The figures seem to be difficult to understand. There is a valuation gain of more than £90m, the initial cost yield of the investment is 6.9% annually, the finance cost of debt is about 3.4%. And the company managed to have the NAV reduced, which seems to suggest a huge running cost for the company as there seems to be good income and capital growth which are wiped out by costs.	riskvsreward	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 14:11	There's a company presentation on the interim results if anyone is interested hxxps://www.empiric.co.uk/investor-information/company-documents Some interesting data. At 30 June 2017 they had 6,833 revenue generating beds (all of those wouldn't be generating during the full period though). The interims say that a further 758 beds are due to be operational for 2017/8 ( = total 7,591) and that this results in an annualised revenue of £66.8m. According to the presentation they have a current portfolio of 9,449 beds (not all operational) with a further 1,608 in assets under development. So eventually 11,057 beds. Assuming a prorata increase in annualised revenue to beds that gives £97.3m. Now let's assume future property operating costs increase by 29% of increased rent (see above), that gives total property operating costs of £30.8m. Assume admin costs increase by another, say, £2m per annum on the run rate in the interims - thats £17.2m. Interest charges stay at current level = £11.4m. Result is a net profit of £37.9m which is 6.3p a share. Boom, there's your dividend covered from rental income. Not sure what the timescale is on that. There's some assumptions in there but the point is that I think they have established a route to dividend cover. I'd rather they concentrated on delivering that plan than look over their shoulder at the share price and drive the business accordingly...	stemis	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 13:52	Dividend cover is indeed based on underlying profits rather than valuation gains. H2 16 was poor. Thought H1 17 would start to reverse but it was equally poor. Fall was overdone earlier and it should bounce a little but they will need to demonstrate they have a better grip of costs before it recovers much more ground.	horndean eagle	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 13:25	SteMis - OK. I know better than to argue with you :) We are not arguing, just constructively exchanging opinions. I don't know where Numis get their '34% dividend coverage' from (Citywire article). I make it 95% on H1. Presumably they are stripping out the revaluation surplus in the period (although it still doesn't add up). If we did that though, DIGS (lower) dividend wouldn't be covered either. I suspect ESP have been guilty of poor communication, assuming that 'everyone' knew what was going on. If you look at the split of H1 06, H2 06 and H1 07 something happened in H2 06. In H1 06 Property Expenses were 28% of Rent. In H2 06 Property Expenses increased by 67% of the increase in rent. In H1 07 Property Expenses only increased by 29% of the increase in rent. Some big one off (recurring?) cost happened in H2 06	stemis	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:43	Numis downgraded to 94p today i think. Reduce.	horndean eagle	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:34	Citywire, but read the comment at the bottom from 'chazza': Http://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/empiric-premium-at-risk-as-dividend-cover-remains-elusive/a1048714	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:30	My bet is - they will get their bonuses. Worries me when these things start imploding long before their end markets do - student accommodation seems a bit of a bubble IMO, but a bubble that's yet to pop. P2P lending would be another good example - P2P, VSL & RDL have all had mini blow-ups long before the next recession has come along. Or the small co lenders, eg SQN. I'm sure there's sectors I've missed. An awful lot of ITs have been created to satisfy the hunger for yield, some going to big premiums & encouraging more entrants. Can't see it ending well. (Infrastructure ITs may be the one exception, as most have been through a downturn - but some eye-watering premiums).	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:27	Horndean - I haven't access to Numis' notes, but I see from another site that they retained their 115p TP with 'hold' on the 12th. Have they updated since then? House broker Jefferies has retained a 125p TP. Bonus scheme: (i) 50 per cent. is triggered if dividend growth is above RPI; and (ii) 50 per cent. is triggered if the NAV growth of the Group’s development assets meets agreed levels. They might get (i) on a 2% divi increase and (ii) is, typically, obscure.	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:14	Numis very bearish today. total loss of trust in management's abilities. Uncovered dividend for the forseeable future. If they can actually deliver and get a handle on costs then it will get re-rated but their track record is shot. Will be criminal if they get any bonus for the year	horndean eagle	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 12:13	@jonwig - same here. CEO buy was yesterday fwiw - presumably he hadn't read the Numis note ;)	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 11:56	SteMis - OK. I know better than to argue with you :) I'm an opportunist at times, and the current NAV discount might tempt me back (101p vs. 106p). I see borrowing limit is self-imposed at 40% and is now 36%, with WAIP of 3.42% (DIGS 2.96%) which might temper their ambition. There does generally tend to be a discount applied to development assets. Trouble is, I'm 19% in property-related stocks, which is more than I'd like. To clarify, I meant "total return" to be total shareholder return - DIGS 14.2%pa. EDIT: CEO bought 46,000 at 107p earlier.	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 11:23	12 month low.	tyranosaurus	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 10:50	SteMis - total return? And ESP's strategy looks rather like borrowing against future returns. DIGS made £23.474m on NAV £466.994m = 5.0% ESP made £14.477m (6 mth) on NAV £530.428m =5.4% I think ESP are in a more development stage of assets than DIGS (although I don't know DIGS well so might be wrong). ESP refer to costs being artificially high. My niece has just moved into one of their properties in Leeds so her feed back will be interesting. Although ESP dividend is uncovered it's not by much - £1.6m run rate at half year compared to NAV of £530.4m. Should close and move into covered territory as assets are developed and producing. Storm in a teacup...	stemis	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 10:26	That trading statement in June where they claim noi at 70% again looks really dodgy. It is off that they managed to get the fundraising away. Scumbags. Hadn't realised how huge operating costs are for student properties.	horndean eagle	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 09:06	Surprised they got that large fundraising away recently, looking at recent t/s. Numis about right I reckon, though ESP do start to look interesting at a discount. ....Although NAV is thanks to revaluations, so it'll be interesting to see what happens if/when those go into reverse. Hard not to compare it to the huge REITS - LAND, BLND etc - & the massive discounts they're on.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 09:04	Numis given them a real kick. Says total lack of confidence in management. Doesn't like the fact dividend will be uncovered. Need a real rocket put up them. Flag up in June trading statement NOI conversion was back at 70%. Now at 60%. Not sure quite how they managed that.	horndean eagle	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 08:58	It sounds like.... only until other beds come on line though	hannath	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 08:55	"..Shares worth having for the dividend alone" say IC - even though some of that dividend is coming out of capital? Not convinced.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 08:47	SteMis - total return? And ESP's strategy looks rather like borrowing against future returns. EDIT: but this share price might be tempting!	jonwig	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 08:34	In Investors Chronicle today ... Empiric readies for jump in student numbers Empiric Student Property (ESP) spent much of the six months to June consolidating a number of acquisitions and developments, but the target of adding up to 3,000 student beds each year remains firmly on the agenda. Higher debt pushed up net finance costs but this was more than outweighed by a rise in net rental income. Demand for purpose-built student accommodation remains as strong as ever, and is set to grow even faster by 2020 as a result of a significant population bulge comprising children reaching university age. To meet this demand, Empiric has raised £110m through a share placing and a further £10m through an unsecured loan, and has already spent £51.2m on four acquisitions. Nearly 7,000 beds were operational at period-end. A further five acquisitions are in the pipeline, with an expected cost of £64m, and this is expected to lift gross annualised rental income from £53.8m as at June 2017 to as a much as £75m by June 2018. The implications of Brexit remain unclear; just under 7 per cent of students in the UK come from the EU, but three-quarters of these are postgraduates who spend less than 12 months in the UK and should not be affected by immigration limits. Analysts at broker Numis are forecasting adjusted net asset value at the new December year-end of 111p, from 105p a year earlier. EMPIRIC STUDENT PROPERTY (ESP) *Dividends paid quarterly. Second-quarter dividend of 1.525p paid on 1 Aug Empiric retains a 6.1p per share dividend target for the year but admits that this will not be substantially covered by after-tax earnings. We expect growth to accelerate over the longer term, but the shares are worth having for the dividend alone. Buy. Last IC View: Buy, 109.5p, 10 Apr 2017	hannath	Read Full Thread Reply
15/9/2017 08:23	But dividend is much lower in DIGS. If ESP paid the same (lower) level of dividend as DIGS it's cover would be higher than DIGS's.	stemis	Read Full Thread Reply

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