Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[rik shaw] 18/1/2020 10:50

Surely this has got to be dragged up by the likes of UTG and DIGS which have seen share price fly up in the last few months.

[spectoacc] 17/1/2020 14:02

Indeed. I always thought Numis turning positive would be the buy signal - looks more like it'll be the sell signal!

[chucko1] 17/1/2020 13:21

Well, I had not really expected this sudden rally (nice, though it is), but I do feel the market is looking to rerate many REITs. For those who stand by the NAV argument (I don’t), this still is at a reasonable discount. The memory of poor management now seems to be fading, and perhaps this is no longer a tarnished stock. Patience has been rewarded (yet again) for those who focus on the longer term. But notably absent in such an analysis is Numis. Brexit was unlikely to have an effect, either way, on ESP, so it was always surprising how slow they were to see the upside for ESP. For all I can tell, they still do not and have maintained their target share price of 91p. It was clearly nearer to this sort of level.

[bullsvbears] 14/1/2020 21:43

Firming - encouraged no doubt by Watkins Jones' comments about expected rise in future student numbers....

[stevegrass777] 17/12/2019 21:48

JCs polocies were bonkers, it must have put off investors into the UK from abroad, and investors in general, that includes property and shares. So pleased the British public has some common sense!

[chucko1] 17/12/2019 08:55

If there is another hard left party, it will very likely fare no better than this one (Labour under JC). Why? Because they never do well. U.K. simply doesn’t vote that way nationally. What has yet to be tested, though, is whether such a party might win were there to be a severe recession under a Tory government. Or depression (something much worse than the early 1980s).

[apollocreed1] 17/12/2019 01:58

@Joe Say - By temporarily, I mean until the next election in 5 years time. I still think there will be another hard-left party at the next election.

[joe say] 16/12/2019 07:16

Temporarily ????? With Boris's majority me thinks a bit longer

[apollocreed1] 15/12/2019 01:43

I'd think that ESP is now a buy seeing that there's a lot less Brexit uncertainty and the threat of a socialist government has temporarily been averted.

[skinny] 27/11/2019 07:21

Dividend Declaration.

[epo001] 26/11/2019 12:18

ESP seems to be late going ex-div for the first interim this year. No RNSs I've noticed either.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 10:13

DIGS seemed pretty good this morning, NAV up c.2.5%, tho still nowhere near as high as the s/p! And UTG's deal got the waive-through yesterday.

[stevegrass777] 31/10/2019 13:32

Really good update, happy to hold. Nice defensive sector at a reasonable price. Good income. Personally I'm not worried about the cover, because I think the statement at the end that said next year will be the first year that covers all properties under our full control (or there abouts) and I feel that will make the difference of 85% cover to 100%. Anyway it's a much better company than when I first bought and feel the progress deserves a re rating.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2019 11:46

Struggle to disagree, but the large discount keeps me in. Think they genuinely need that divi covered first.

[chucko1] 31/10/2019 11:45

It’s all “ok”. Investors look for better than “ok”. Maybe one day it will find favour again, but a catalyst for this is not immediately obvious. Pretty safe, though, now the new management have rightened the ship. I do agree that it is cheap as compared with the others, but the others have demonstrated they can make the model work. This might just be the better risk/reward, though. That said, there are still better REIT risk/rewards I can think of.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2019 10:04

Fair comment. Expenses half a million lower tho ;) Any which way, they're well beyond the previous fiasco, yet rated chronically low compared to the others (who, IMO, are massively over-rated, UTG in particular).

[jgh03] 31/10/2019 09:23

Are they performing in line ? The dividend cover of 85% may be in line with the announcement made in March, but it is still below the "fully covered" forecast offered in July 2018. My sense is that they are progressing, but more slowly than I would have hoped.

[skinny] 31/10/2019 07:10

Trading Update. The board of Empiric Student Property plc (ticker: ESP) (the "Board"), the owner and operator of premium student accommodation across the UK, is pleased to provide the following update on trading. Student revenue is expected to be approximately 10% up in full year 2019 compared to full year 2018, driven by an increase in the number of beds, increased occupancy and an increase in revenue generated per bed. The Company is continuing to reduce average cost per bed and expects a reduction of approximately 8% for full year 2019. Bookings for the 2019/20 academic year are currently at 93%, in line with the corresponding point in the previous academic year. The Company anticipates similar opportunities to sell semester lets as achieved during the 2018/19 academic year, which successfully increased bookings to achieve 97% occupancy. The Company anticipates c. 3% growth in average rents for the 2019/20 academic year. Full year 2019 performance is on track, with the business expected to achieve a gross margin of around 67% and dividend cover in excess of 85%. Administration costs are expected to be around £9.5 million, slightly below the Company's previous guidance of £10 million. The Group has also started selling for the 2020/21 academic year, which will be the first full academic year that the Company has the benefit of direct control of its improved and established sales processes for all of its properties. Much of the operational reorganisation has now been achieved and the Company continues to focus on embedding and driving further improved efficiencies across the business through the Group's operational platform. The Board intends to provide guidance on the Company's full year 2020 in late January 2020.

[maddox] 13/9/2019 09:26

Hi Chuck, Totally agree - madness - as is the inclusion of student numbers in immigration figures. The Govt now is aiming to increase the number of International Students to 600k from the current 450k over the next 10 years. hTTps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/uk-work-visas-for-foreign-students-all-you-need-to-know On the basis that PBSA beds are being built at a rate of 25,000 per year - and UK demand is still rising - it appears that the under-supply that supports rental growth is likely to be maintained. Regards, Maddox

[chucko1] 11/9/2019 12:34

“Bone-headed” is an understatement. She was the only senior politician who thought it was a good idea. It was patently mad, but she paid the price of her madness in the end. Geoff Boycott being the only winner, it would seem, other than those hopeless advisors she saw fit to listen to. No effect on the share price, though. Market appears bored with ESP having been punished twice over the past three years or so. It’s not exactly growing.

[maddox] 11/9/2019 10:54

Excellent news today for all UK Universities and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) providers. The Govt is to change the rules to now allow foreign students studying in the UK to stay-on to work for a further two years unrestricted. There are currently 450k international students in the UK. This move will undoubtedly boost numbers as the UK has been far less attractive than other top destinations, specifically Australia and US that already allow students to stay-on to work. This thankfully reverses the disastrous bone-headed approach introduced by Theresa May as Home Secretary to require students to leave after 4 months. May saw students as a soft target to hit her hopeless immigration targets - despite the hard evidence that very few were over-stayers. This move applies to all trusted higher education providers and will thus exclude the dodgy language schools that were flouting the immigration rules. hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49655719 Regards, Maddox

[skinny] 20/8/2019 14:51

I've increased by 25%.

[chucko1] 20/8/2019 14:31

It’s worth remembering that DIGS yields 3.74%. ESP yields 5.38% That’s too wide given the increasing stability of the latter.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 13:07

I guess one question might be - "why aren't your earnings higher". Isn't as if they're doing an NRR and paying out a 14% yield - they're paying barely what they promised to pay at listing, and certainly not what they'd intended to be up at by now. But that discount - compared to peers - surely has to close eventually.

[chucko1] 20/8/2019 13:04

There was very little to indicate the route to full div cover. I need to see that to get excited about this, but I do agree that they nailed the results yet again and the risk is therefore lower again. Deserves a lower discount. An 8% lift to about 100p plus 5p of divs suggests a yield for the next year of about 13 or 14%. Fine by me, so might actually add a few.