Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 29/6/2007 21:02

Two big American oil companies may quit Venezuela

Jun 28th 2007 - From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Few companies have had the desire, or the guts, to challenge Venezuela's powerful president, Hugo Chávez, and his increasingly nationalistic and interventionist policies. Now two oil multinationals, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhilips (both US), have refused to acquiesce to the new contract terms demanded by the government as part of its nationalisation of four huge heavy-oil joint ventures in the Orinoco oil basin. The cost to the companies will be high, as they will have to effectively abandon their oil operations in the country.

Assuming the oil companies do indeed withdraw from Venezuela, the losses they incur will be significant. ExxonMobil will give up 2% of its global oil output by exiting Venezuela. ConocoPhilips (the largest private producer in the Orinoco) reportedly will lose as much as 5%. ConocoPhilips says that it is set to write off the entire US$4.5bn value of its two Orinoco projects, although it still hopes to negotiate some kind of compensation from the Chávez government. (The government values ConocoPhilips's investments at around US$3.5bn and ExxonMobil's at US$800m.)

[briarberry] 29/6/2007 01:53

June 28 (Bloomberg) – Caliber Global Investment Ltd., a $908 million fund invested in subprime mortgage debt, will close as losses widen on defaulted U.S. home loans.

[briarberry] 28/6/2007 23:45

US home builders reporting losses...


LOS ANGELES (AP) -- KB Home, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, said Thursday it swung to a loss in its second quarter, as revenue declined amid weak home sales and lower home prices and the homebuilder booked a major charge to write down unsold inventory.

KB reported a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 per share, for the period ended May 31. A year ago, the company posted net income of $205.4 million, or $2.45 per share.

On Tuesday, Miami-based Lennar Corp. reported a second-quarter loss. It was also forced to book a losses on undeveloped land.


American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., a mortgage real estate investment trust, said Thursday it will likely report a loss for the second quarter because of costs set aside to buy back delinquent loans.

[briarberry] 28/6/2007 23:31

smelly SOX... 2 bad, 1 good, so far...


Micron Posts Loss After Memory-Chip Prices Fall 35% (Update2)- By Ian King

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Micron Technology Inc., the largest U.S. maker of computer-memory chips, reported a second straight quarterly loss after an industry glut forced it to slash prices.

The third-quarter loss was $225 million, or 29 cents a share, compared with a profit of $88 million, or 12 cents, a year earlier, Boise, Idaho-based Micron said today. Sales fell 1.4 percent to $1.29 billion in the period ended May 31.


Research in Motion Says 1Q Earnings Grew 73 Percent on Increased Sales

TORONTO (AP) -- Shares of Research In Motion Ltd. surged nearly 17 percent in after-hours trading Thursday after the BlackBerry maker said its first-quarter earnings grew 73 percent on increased sales and subscriber additions.


SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Palm Inc. reported a 43 percent plunge in
fiscal fourth-quarter profit Thursday amid sharply rising costs and blistering
competition.

[briarberry] 28/6/2007 23:06

Earnings begin July 9th with AA.

[ian56] 24/6/2007 23:50

Merril Lynch only got about 50 cents on the dollar.
Bear Stearns was required to be bailed out somehow.
The stakes are high.


(This is an extreme site - may your own mind up.)

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 24/6/2007 18:43

crime pays podcast...

[briarberry] 24/6/2007 18:40

Inflation, owners equivalent rent - I wonder if this is true...

Owner Equivalent Rent which comprises over 30% of the infamous CPI CORE will keep the BLS numbers subdued as housing collapses and utility prices go up (yes! they adjust OER for utility increases, no they don't add, they subtract utility increases because they figure the landlord pays for them and the renter gets the "value" when they go up... so inflation means deflation according to the BLS).

[briarberry] 23/6/2007 16:16

THE American housing market, as measured by home-building activity, is falling at the most rapid rate in decades, underscoring the pain felt by builders who were far too optimistic about the state of the market.

Even with the plunge, however, starts have been very high relative to the number of homes that builders are trying to sell, a fact that could indicate the weakness will last while builders seek to sell homes they have already built.

[briarberry] 23/6/2007 15:51

Will they ever admit to anything? Yes, I guess once they have sold out all their inventory of shares and the SPX hits a bottom, they'll let the public know just how bad things really are...



The crisis this week from the near collapse of two hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns stems directly from the slumping housing market and the fallout from loose lending practices that showered money on people with weak, or subprime, credit, leaving many of them struggling to stay in their homes.

(near collapse ?!?! - those funds have gone bust - if it were you or I, they would of had the bailiffs round by now - we'd be out on the street by now)

[briarberry] 21/6/2007 16:42

Bear Stearns Fund Collapse Sends Shock Through CDOs (Update2)

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co.'s threat to sell $800 million of mortgage securities seized from Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds is sending shudders across Wall Street.

A sale would give banks, brokerages and investors the one thing they want to avoid: a real price on the bonds in the fund that could serve as a benchmark. The securities are known as collateralized debt obligations, which exceed $1 trillion and comprise the fastest-growing part of the bond market.

Because there is little trading in the securities, prices may not reflect the highest rate of mortgage delinquencies in 13 years. An auction that confirms concerns that CDOs are overvalued may spark a chain reaction of writedowns that causes billions of dollars in losses for everyone from hedge funds to pension funds to foreign banks. Bear Stearns, the second-biggest mortgage bond underwriter, also is the biggest broker to hedge funds.

``How many other hedge funds are holding similar, illiquid, esoteric securities? What are their true prices? What will happen if more blow up?''

[briarberry] 20/6/2007 15:58

Credit spreads, Standard and Poor's do all sorts, but I think they only give one example of raw data for free, no charts, I did look a while back but I gave up collecting the numbers





just noticed this :( :(

Beginning June 30th, the S&P Composite Spreads located on the Data tab will become a fee-based service powered by RatingsDirect. You will need to subscribe to Global Fixed Income Research on RatingsDirect to view recent and historical spreads data that you have come to rely on.

[ian56] 20/6/2007 13:00

Got any info on credit spreads?
Are they widening?
The reason US treasuries may be rallying recently is because they are selling higher risk debt?

Blackstone IPO - price is set tomoorow and launch is on Monday.

Regards,
Ian

[ian56] 19/6/2007 11:59

Re : the Fed and cash flows.
The investment banks have been unwilling to borrow from the Fed at higher than about 5.15% for the last month.

5.07% wasn't so much of an aberration.

The Fed does have competition from Japan.
As the USD/Yen rate demonstrates.

The corporate tax flows stuff was very interesting.

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 18/6/2007 16:09

according to WSE it's because of treasury pay downs last week...

This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the know dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.

[briarberry] 18/6/2007 15:46

The Fed stop-out rate took a dip today (are they expecting lower rates?)


DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%

- it has been around 5.18 to 5.25 and usually in the past it has been very close to Fed Funds rate


Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.

[briarberry] 18/6/2007 15:30

crime pays...

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Supreme Court Monday ruled 7-1 that several
Wall Street firms are immune from a class-action lawsuit brought under federal
antitrust laws over alleged conduct on initial public offerings during the
1990s technology bubble.

[briarberry] 18/6/2007 12:59

I keep wondering when the Yen is going to bottom against the US$, as I guess it will mean that all the carry traders are fully invested etc

[briarberry] 18/6/2007 12:11

If I had bought every dip since 2003, I'd be over there getting my photo taken :) :)

[ian56] 17/6/2007 23:32

China exports inflation.

Wage inflation circa 10%.
Yuan appreciation against the dollar 3-5% p.a.
Export subsidies to be phased out by 2008 (6 to 12%).

Chinese goods set to rise by about 40% over the next 2 years.

Mebbe this is what the Fed means by inflationary pressures in the pipeline.

Of course Bush has a lot to answer for with his statements on producing more ethanol from corn.
Grain prices have rocketed as a result.
Putting further pressure on Chinese wage inflation.

US 10 year note has broken above a 20 year trendline.
10 year interest rates will probably fall to around 5% short term and then rise to as much as 7% over the next 2-5 years.

What will that do to mortagages and the US housing market?

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 17/6/2007 13:52

LA Times - Sales of homes down 34% in region - a 12 year low

Build them and the buyers will come. That's how developer Shone Wang has been selling homes in Southern California for the last 15 years.


it's the poor people at the bottom end who are being squeezed first

[briarberry] 17/6/2007 13:38

weekend watching, not watched this yet, as I think I've already seen it...

The Money Masters