Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[ian56] 16/6/2007 21:02

Everybody except the top 10% has seen their wages not keep up with inflation for a while now - not just for a couple of months.

CPI now officially 8.1% (probably nearer 10).

Core cpi excluding the obviously discretionary spending on food and gas was 0.149 = 1.8%.

Chinese wage inflation.
Minor re-valuation of the Yuan - 3% revaluation against the dollar will translate into 3% inflation.

Higher energy costs feeding thru the manufacturing cycle.
The Chinese don't buy their oil on the spot market.

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 16/6/2007 15:05

US wages not keeping up with inflation...

After taking inflation into account, the average weekly earnings for workers in nonmanagement jobs - some 80 percent of the work force - fell for the second consecutive month in May.

"Everybody has to eat, and everybody has to drive to work," said Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia. "For households, the headline number truly is the more important number."

[briarberry] 14/6/2007 22:53

commodity spot prices still going up but you wouldn't guess it looking at the inflation figures



The Spot Market Price Index is a measure of price movements of 22 sensitive basic commodities (no energy component)

[briarberry] 13/6/2007 23:47

La Jolla,CA----Last month was the slowest May for Southern California home sales in 12 years, mainly because of sharp declines in lower-cost markets. The Southland's median sales price was unchanged, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 19,874 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.1 percent from 19,269 for the month before, and down 34.4 percent from 30,303 for May last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last month's sales were the lowest for any May since 1995, when 17,712 homes sold. The May 1995 total was the lowest for any May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The strongest May was in 2005, when 35,557 homes sold. May has averaged 27,123 sales.

[briarberry] 13/6/2007 22:53

someones actually admitting to taking a loss...

Bear Stearns' Subprime Bath

Hit by the subprime market's collapse, investors in a highly leveraged-and losing-hedge fund find they can't get out. Investors in a 10-month-old Bear Stearns (BSC) hedge fund are learning the hard way the danger of investing in risky bonds with borrowed money. The investment firm's High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, as of Apr. 30, was down a whopping 23% for the year.

The situation is so bleak that Bear Stearns' asset management group is suspending redemptions at the onetime $642 million fund-meaning investors have no choice but to sit on their losses. And that's got some hopping mad.

An investor in Europe, who didn't want to be identified, says he's been trying to get his money out of the hedge fund since February.

(it's gone bust!)

"investment manager believes the company will not have sufficient liquid assets to pay investors."




(they're still not admitting to much though)

Chuck - Jun 13, 2007 3:03 PM GMT
Is it now about time that the SEC forces these financial entities to write down the "assets" to their net realizable value?



(they don't want to admit to anything before they've managed to sell all their lemons)

Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, is hawking the riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations to public pension funds.

[briarberry] 13/6/2007 20:12

US housing - this seems to be a significant recovery but I'm guessing it's a wave 2 due to price drops and incentives etc - 10%+ price drops for new houses. There also seems to be a rush to get in before rates get any higher. Just have to wait and see.

Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index jumped 7.2 percent in the June 8 week to 464.7


June 12 (Bloomberg) - U.S. foreclosure filings surged 90 percent in May from a year earlier as more homeowners fell behind on their monthly mortgage payments, RealtyTrac Inc. said. There were 176,137 notices of default, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions last month, led by California, Florida and Ohio, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said in a report today. The filings rose 19 percent from April.

"Such strong activity in the midst of the typical spring buying season could foreshadow even higher foreclosure levels later in the year," [James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac] said in the report. That will add "to the downward pressure on home prices in many areas."





82 now


This is from DataQuick's Q1 foreclosure report:

"Last quarter's default level was the highest since 47,912 NoDs were recorded statewide in second-quarter 1997. Defaults peaked in first quarter 1996 at 61,541. An average of 33,847 NoDs have been filed quarterly since 1992, when DataQuick's NOD statistics begin"

So 61,541 is the record for an entire quarter. Now there were 39,659 in May alone. I don't know the number for April but it's my suspicion that we are already in RECORD TERRITORY.

DQ's favorite closing line is, "market distress is largey absent" and last time, "While foreclosure properties tugged property values down by almost 10 percent in some areas ten years ago, the effect on today's market is negligible, DataQuick reported".

What will the cheerleaders at DQ cook up for Q2?
barely | 06.12.07 - 3:20 pm | #

[briarberry] 12/6/2007 15:18

Lehman Brothers reported record net income of $1.27 billion in its fiscal second quarter, kicking off a week of earnings updates from several major Wall Street firms. Lehman said its profits were up 27 percent from last year's second quarter and up 11 percent from the first quarter of 2007. Net revenue from Lehman's investment banking operations surged 55 percent from a year ago, the firm said. But Lehman's revenue from fixed-income sales and trading declined 14 percent, hurt in part by weakness in the United States residential mortgage market.

[briarberry] 12/6/2007 00:01

Junk bonds, finally pricing in more risk ? (although I thought that the last time PHK tanked too)





I've not read this yet...

Piscataqua Research has issued a new report which analyzes the economy through the lens of household cashflow.

As shown by changes in the "Investing Activities" section, it appears that U.S. households are liquidating assets to boost available liquid savings. This "squirreling away" of cash is a precursor of reduced economic activity. Squirrels usually behave this way when winter is approaching. If this behavior continues, it should lead to a recession. The current size implies a big recession.

[briarberry] 11/6/2007 17:51

Florida - first time buyers can actually afford to buy in Florida now...


Fort Myers - You're not going to believe what some brand new townhomes went for on the auction block Thursday night in Fort Myers, considering where prices have been. A three bedroom townhome previously priced at $310,000 sold for about $180,000! First time home buyer Brandon Quarterman, a student at Florida Gulf Coast University, was the lucky bidder. He said, 'I'm feeling great. more money in my pocket!"

Greg Toher was outraged when he heard the prices some of the homes were going for. Walking out of the auction room, he told us, "$145,000! Unbelievable! We paid $300,000! They just got rid of at least four for $145,000!" He says he closed on his three bedroom San Simeon townhome in December, "You've got to be kidding me, that's not fair."

[briarberry] 11/6/2007 16:36

another wave of food inflation is on it's way ?

[briarberry] 11/6/2007 15:18

... inventories of unsold homes in major metro areas rose another 5 percent in May, according to Zip Realty, nearly a one-third increase over the same time last year. And while home builders have cut back on construction by about as much, "they still have a lot of money in the ground," Credit Suisse housing analyst Ivy Zelman says of the raw land still on builders' books. "And the only way to get their cash back is to build more houses."

(record highs)

[briarberry] 11/6/2007 14:31

US economic stats - phantom GDP



For example, furniture manufacturing has been transformed by offshoring in recent years. Imports have surged from $17.2 billion in 2000 to $30.3 billion in 2006, with virtually all of that increase coming from low-cost China. And the industry has lost 21% of its jobs during the same period.

Yet Washington's official statistics show that productivity per hour in the furniture industry went up by 23% and output by 3% between 2000 and 2005. Those numbers baffle longtime industry consultant Arthur Raymond of Raleigh, N.C., who has watched factory after factory close. "And we haven't pumped any money into the remaining plants," says Raymond. "How anybody can say that domestic production has stayed level is beyond me."

.
Review: The above is an example of how the blood-sucking capitalist class (e.g. Morgan-Stanley, Goldman-Sachs etc.) drain the vitality and life out of our working class

[briarberry] 09/6/2007 00:26

credit bubble - interesting, probably nothing but you never know...


The Fed drained another $4.75 billion from the market on Friday adding $5.5 billion in weekend repos against $10.25 billion in expirations. That left the 5 day net at a still painful net drain of $9.75 billion. That's on top of the Treasury settling $43 billion in net new debt over the past week. Most importanly, FCBs were dumping Treasuries and Agencies this week. The net result of all that was a triple whammy for the market.



Foreign central banks (FCBs) didn't just fail to show up this week, they knocked the tin cup out of the beggar's hand, selling $12.5 billion in US Old Maid Cards (OMC), including $2.7 billion in housing agencies. I can't recall ever seeing this to the extent. The US can ill afford an FCB pass, let alone a spill. Little wonder the bond market got smacked, and one has wonder how all those derivatives are fairing now.



Declining MEW is one of the reasons I forecast the trade deficit to decline in '07. And a declining trade deficit also has possible implications for U.S. interest rates; as the trade deficit declines, rates may rise in the U.S. because foreign CBs will have less to invest in the U.S.. This is why I forecast rates to rise in '07.



Rise in China's Pork Prices Signals End to Cheap Output

GAOYAO, China, June 1 - Few things are as essential to the Chinese as their pigs.
From pork spare ribs and mu shu pork to char siu bao - barbecued pork buns - pork is a staple of the Chinese diet. So in this Year of the Pig, an acute shortage of pork has been national news, as butchers raise prices almost daily and politicians scramble to respond.

Steep increases for pork loins and bacon are the most tangible sign that after a decade in which prices have fluctuated but not moved significantly upward, inflation is creeping back into China. In response to this pressure at home, Chinese companies are starting to raise prices for exports, removing what has been a brake on inflation in the West.

With the global economy expanding at a robust pace, and prices rising in fast-developing countries like India and Mexico, central bankers and investors are becoming concerned. Interest rates are inching up in the United States and Europe as lenders demand that borrowers pay more to offset the erosion of buying power over time.

(sounds like a lot)

The most recent statistics from the agriculture ministry show that prices for live pigs rose 71.3 percent in April from March, while pork prices climbed 29.3 percent. The price of pork followed pig prices higher in May as well, to the dismay of shoppers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/08/business/worldbusiness/08prices.html?

[briarberry] 01/6/2007 13:39

another rabbit out of the hat :)

2007 Net Birth/Death Adjustment May 203K

nonfarm payrolls 157K

remember this

[briarberry] 01/6/2007 13:36

the carry trade watchers are waiting to see if Switzerland puts it rates up...

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - The Swiss consumer price index in May was up 0.2 pct from April with consumer prices rising 0.5 pct year-on-year, the Swiss Federal Statistics Office said.

Swiss Franc to Euro Exchange Rate

[briarberry] 31/5/2007 21:04

Bank Earnings Down 2.5 Percent

By ALAN ZIBEL AP Business Writer
© 2007 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Profits at federally insured banks and thrifts dropped by 2.5 percent in the first quarter to $36 billion, dragged down by the sluggish housing market, increased defaults on loans, higher interest rates and weak economic growth, data released Thursday show.

In March, the FDIC and four other federal agencies that regulate banks, thrifts and credit unions proposed mortgage-lending guidelines that call for strict evaluations of a borrower's ability to repay, among other recommendations.

[briarberry] 31/5/2007 15:51

US Corporate profits, flat Q over Q for 3 Qs, and they don't fully adjust for inflation and mortgage losses etc.

profits started to take off at the same time as MEW, makes sense :)

[briarberry] 31/5/2007 14:35

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. mortgage approvals fell and consumer credit dropped to the lowest in a decade in April, a sign higher interest rates are deterring Britons from borrowing.

Lenders granted 107,000 loans for house purchases, down from a revised 112,000 in March, the lowest in a year, the Bank of England said today in London. Borrowing by consumers on credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts fell to 498 million pounds ($983 million), the least since March 1997.

The report suggests consumers are shirking from adding to record debts to fuel spending in shops or on homes, whose prices have risen about 10 percent in the past year. Investors are speculating the Bank of England will raise the benchmark interest rate a fifth time from a six-year high of 5.5 percent, which may further cool demand for loans.

[briarberry] 31/5/2007 14:23

Refi - thought this was odd, probably bounce next week...


The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent to 1874.6 from 2154.7 the previous week

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 39.7 percent of total applications from 42.3 percent the previous week.

[briarberry] 31/5/2007 00:30

Peruvian Stocks Plunge Most in 17 Years: World's Biggest Mover (down 22% from the top)

By James Attwood and Alexander Ragir

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Peru's main stock index fell the most in at least 17 years, led by miner Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SA, on concern that China's demand for commodities may slow.

The Lima General Index plunged 1522.95, or 7.6 percent, to 18,543.82. The decline was the sharpest since Bloomberg began tracking the index in January 1990 and the biggest move among markets included in global benchmarks.

Peru is a big copper producer