Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 25/7/2007 21:21

Banks Postpone Chrysler Funding Plan

AP - Investment banks raising funds for the turnaround of Chrysler Group postponed a $12 billion debt offer after investors balked, so they will now fund the bulk themselves to keep the automaker's sale on track, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday.

[ian56] 25/7/2007 12:13

So it took about 5-6 years from the Florida real estate bust in the 20's to the bottom for stocks in 32.

US real estate topped out late 2006 / early 2007.
I am expecting a major stock mkt low in mid 2011.

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 24/7/2007 23:45

debt market investor confidence must have taken a hammering, credit will cost more

[briarberry] 24/7/2007 23:15

from WSE yesterday...

One sign of trouble would be an increase in the spreads between mortgage backed and government

paper. The spread between 10 year Treasuries and FNMA bonds had been running between 29 and 37

basis points for most of the year, except for a brief widening to 43 in March. Since then, they have for

the most part been back in the earlier predominant range. The investment banks successfully fostered

an attitude of, "Nothing to see here. Move along." It's a con game, and The Street was winning it. But

spreads widened out to 48 points as of 6/18/07. They pulled back but then on Tuesday 7/10 moved out

to 50 basis points. Last week they were in the 44-51 range. On Monday, 7/23 the spread widened

dramatically to 57 points.

[briarberry] 24/7/2007 21:38

looks like wave 3 down on the financials


smaller banks are giving it all back - going down to 2005 lows

[briarberry] 24/7/2007 20:56

SPX - I think this is the end of this bull market ?

see what happens when they start reflating ?

that 3% GDP figure on Friday should give a short covering rally ? may be a wave 2 retrace high ?

[briarberry] 22/7/2007 19:40

Debt Market Is Squeezing Private Equity - The New York Times

By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED - Published: July 21, 2007

If conditions do not improve, private equity firms and their bankers may face an even uglier situation. Some $235 billion in loans are waiting to be sold, nearly all for leveraged buyouts, according to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary and Data.

Nearly all major debt offerings that were expected to take place next month have been pushed back. First Data, a credit card processor whose $22 billion sale of loans and bonds is widely seen as a bellwether for the high-yield credit markets, has pushed back its offering until after Labor Day. Bankers for other major buyouts, like TXU's, may hold off their debt sales even longer.

[briarberry] 22/7/2007 14:36

uptickrule - something tells me that the big money is expecting a bear market...

The uptick rule was elimated by the SEC effective July 6, 2007.

Source:

A rule established by the SEC that requires that every short sale transaction be entered at a price that is higher than the price of the previous trade. This rule was introduced in the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as Rule 10a-1. The uptick rule prevents short sellers from adding to the downward momentum when the price of an asset is already experiencing sharp declines.

[briarberry] 21/7/2007 16:25

GDP Q2 thought to be as high as 3%

briefing.com - Jul 27 08:30 - GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5%

inventory building - making cars that they cannot sell

[briarberry] 21/7/2007 14:50

California - State's job growth hits the brakes

Employers show a net gain of 400 positions in June after adding 4,800 in April and 16,200 in May. The financial services and construction sectors see the biggest drops in employment.

By Lisa Girion, Times Staff Writer - 11:49 AM PDT, July 20, 2007

Dragged down by big losses related to the real estate slump, California's employment engine ground to a near standstill in June with a net gain of 400 positions, state figures released today show.

By comparison, the state added 16,200 jobs in May and 4,800 in April.

As expected, financial activities and construction were the biggest losers among six sectors that posted employment declines in June, according to the Employment Development Department report.

Reflecting layoffs by troubled subprime lenders and the big chill in home building, the financial activities sector lost 5,700 jobs, while construction shrank by 5,300. By comparison, the other four declining sectors lost a total of 5,900 jobs.

"Slowing state job growth has been primarily caused by the slowdown in residential building and resale activity," said Stephen Levy, senior economist for the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. "A continuation of the slowing will cause problems for this year's and next year's state budget."

Despite slow job growth, the state's unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% after rising in May from 5.1% in April. By comparison, the U.S. jobless rate was 4.5% in June, unchanged from May.

[briarberry] 20/7/2007 15:14

the first signs of credit contraction or just a blip ???


* US Bank Credit: $8.567 trln, down (-)$19.9 bln, and marking the second straight week of decline, a rare occurrence.

* Loans and Leases: $6.273 trln, down(-)$7.5 bln

* Commercial and Industrial Loans: $1.258 trln, down(-) $8.3 bln from the previous week, a single-week decline of (-)0.7%, or a (-)34% annualized rate of contraction

* Real Estate Loans: $3.419 trln, down (-)$0.8 bln

* Consumer Loans: $760.5 bln, down (-)$4.2 bln

* Outside of a small one-week upside blip in Revolving Home Equity Loans, it was an across-the-board contraction in US commercial bank credit.

[briarberry] 20/7/2007 14:46

China - Inflation climbed to 4.4 percent in June, the fastest since September 2004, breaching the central bank's 3 percent target for a fourth month."

[briarberry] 19/7/2007 23:33

GOOG down 7% - whats going on :)



Google Inc.'s second-quarter profit climbed 28 percent, but it wasn't enough to fulfill Wall Street's high expectations for the Internet's search leader.

[briarberry] 19/7/2007 00:16

100 credit bubble pumpers have now gone bust...



ALERT: The Implode-O-Meter is being sued! Read about the case.

[briarberry] 17/7/2007 21:20

US payroll data, their fibs are being discovered...


WSJ:

The Labor Department's payroll survey has missed up to 139,000 construction layoffs, a new analysis of underlying payroll data has concluded.

The new report released Monday by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, based on data supplied by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc., could explain in part why construction employment hasn't slumped as much as actual homebuilding.

[briarberry] 17/7/2007 20:32

the debt markets will like this :)

Southland home sales slowest since 1993
July 17, 2007
La Jolla,CA----Southern California's real estate market slowed to its lowest sales pace in 14 years last month, led by steep sales drop-offs in the Inland Empire and other affordable markets, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 20,166 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 1.5 percent from 19,874 for the month before, and down 36.2 percent from 31,602 for June last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last month's sales were the slowest for any June since 1993, when 19,947 homes sold, the lowest for any June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The strongest June was in 2005, when 40,156 homes sold. The June sales average is 29,041.

[briarberry] 17/7/2007 19:46

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Foreign buying of U.S. financial assets unexpectedly climbed to a record in May as international investors snapped up American stocks and corporate bonds.

China, South Korea and Taiwan sold Treasuries in May, the report showed, reinforcing evidence that central banks are diversifying reserves to seek higher returns and reduce their links with the dollar. Since May, Iran has asked Japan's refiners to switch to paying for oil in yen, rather than dollars. Kuwait on May 20 abandoned its currency's peg to the dollar.

[briarberry] 17/7/2007 16:27

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the rest of Wall Street are stuck with at least $11 billion of loans and bonds they can't readily sell.

The banks have had to dig into their own pockets to finance parts of at least five leveraged buyouts over the past month because of the worst bear market in high-yield debt in more than two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bankers, who just a few months ago boasted that demand for high-yield assets was so great that they would have no problem raising debt for a $100 billion LBO, are now paying for their overconfidence. The cost of tying up their own capital may curb earnings and stem the flood of LBOs, which generated a record $8.4 billion in fees during the first half of 2007, according to Brad Hintz, the former chief financial officer at New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

``The private equity firms, being very tough negotiators, are unlikely to let the banks off the hook,'' said Martin Fridson, chief executive officer of high-yield research firm FridsonVision LLC in New York. ``They'll say that's your problem and that's why we're paying you: To take risk.''

[briarberry] 16/7/2007 22:53

Venusala effect ? might be worth watching as Oils lead the markets...

may be on Conoco ?


not yet on XOM

[briarberry] 16/7/2007 00:19

US employment numbers (it's said that the Household Survey is the most statically significant)



Household SurveyChg. in Civilian Labor Force (000)
199 -190 195 -392 175 310 ... average of 6 months = 49.5

Establishment SurveyChg. in Total Nonfarm Payrolls (000)
162 90 175 122 190 132 ... average of 6 months = 145.2

CES Net Birth/Death Model -
-175 118 128 317 203 156 ... average of 6 months = 124.5

The ADP National Employment Report (originally reported numbers)
jan 152 feb 57 mar 106 apr 64 may 97 jun 150 ... average of 6 months = 104

although their updated numbers average at 150 ...


Jobless Claims Data Remains Perplexing