Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 25/1/2022 11:58

Oh my ...Question to be asked is: if post this trading update price is hovering at an 8month low (and the low of the day) failing to wake up, what will make it do so? Mr Market is the ultimate fundamental and the ultimate voting machine. He moves up/down when willing buyers/sellers are in a rush and vice-versa. Anything else is noise chaps. 65 printing and it's quite something seeing folks happily fall asleep and forgetting to ask THE most relevant question there is - why is the market not waking up to what most here hold as gospel? The above is cold hard fact am afraid not an opinion. Ah well - as the wise man said: everyone gets what they want from the market. Some success and the rest ... well I don't need to say it do I.

[rivaldo] 25/1/2022 08:31

Great to see EKF trading - once again - ahead of already upgraded expectations.

With around £20m net cash there's plenty of headroom for further investment into growth areas and perhaps more acquisitions.

[wan] 25/1/2022 08:30

Singer note summary (I don't have access to the full note)

Continued strong trading means FY21 results will be ahead of upgraded expectations. Trading in the core business is reported to be robust and demand has persisted for the group’s sample collection devices through to the end of the year. Further investment is expected in FY22 to drive core business growth, which remains a key strategic objective for the new management team. Last week’s announcement of a strategic partnership with Yourgene will help broaden the offering and underpin future growth expectations of the recently acquired ADL Health business. Having upgraded several times over the course of the year, we push through a further 2% upgrade to FY21 PBT/EPS. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and Target Price of 86p.

[tongosti] 25/1/2022 08:28

Mr Market hardly excited - for a change.

[wan] 25/1/2022 07:55

As expected, EKF confirmed this morning that continued strong trading will result in its performance for the financial year ended 31st December being ahead of already upgraded market expectations.

Cash generation has been very strong, especially when also factoring in the significant investments being made in the business (e.g. work having commenced back in the first half on a new fermentation facility with $3.4m paid on deposit, the cash investment has obviously increased further)

Guidance on current trading and the outlook for FY22 is going to be provided alongside the FY Results, which was the end of March last year.

[tongosti] 24/1/2022 16:04

If you can’t face the (market’s) music you should step aside joe.

had you listened to my voice of reason you wouldn't be in a pickle would you.

67 printing. grow up and own your mistakes - blaming the world around you is what losers do. are you? lol.

Filtered.

[ingroid] 24/1/2022 15:54

Why not try and drop off a cliff and leave this post for sensible discussion.

[tongosti] 24/1/2022 14:45

Are you losing altitude as well or taking measures you don't?

[sirshagalot] 24/1/2022 14:17

All shares on my watch are down today, looming invasion of ukraine prob cause.
gold is up dungcoin is down .

[tongosti] 24/1/2022 09:13

Wan - thank you for your reply. I note that you haven't replied to the question at all but have rather resorted to Howard Marks' help on shedding light the benefits of longer term investing. It's not exactly the point here - but since you are asking for it - you want to know that the best money makers in history are traders not investors (google Jim Simons' and George Soros performance numbers and compare them with ANY long termer you can think of). My argument is not discussing trading VS investing (there are good traders as they are good investors) but rather try get your rationale on the "why the market is acting contrary to your thesis" as opposed to the unimaginative answer "I may not have a clue why the market is doing what is doing for 15 months but I am here for the long term as this is what Howard Marks says". Live and let live pal but whatever happened to critical thinking?Yes - very few people indeed possess good market timing skills (isn't success the province of the few in ANY walk of life btw?) but this doesn't mean it is out of reach isn't it. Good market timing compounds pennies into pounds whereas (the way 99% practice it) long term's sit and pray approach hardly works for 99% of players. Why I hear you say? Fact: the rise of passive investing has taken place simply because 99% of professional managers do not manage to beat underlying market benchmark consistently. Have you ever asked the question what chance do you have and why do you think your edge in the markets are exceeds that of 99% or professional money managers? I genuinely think that you mean well and that you do a lot of research but unfortunately not of the kind that makes one money. I also genuinely think you do not really understand how the market machine works. Like you say this is what makes a market in the end - thanks for trying to answer anyways.

[wan] 24/1/2022 08:38

Tongosti...I know why I invested in EKF, I know why I remain invested in EKF. Clearly others have perhaps different understanding or views etc, hence we have a market and sometimes the dichotomy (as you put it) between the share price and company prospects etc.

Suffice to say, that the following article sums my investment strategy up, and also explains the 'dichotomy' between the likes of you and the likes of me! -

Why do so many investors sell out too early?
Simply being invested to benefit from miracle of long-term compounding of returns is the most important thing

Howard Marks JANUARY 19 2022

The writer is co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management

In 33 years of writing memos to investors, I’ve never dedicated one to the matter of selling. But I’m doing so now because it’s essential that we understand why many investors fail to focus on the long term and instead sell out.

As I wrote in a memo in 2015, I believe most investors trade too much and to their own detriment and that the best solution for illiquidity in markets is to build portfolios for the long term that don’t rely on liquidity and trading for their success.

Further, investors often engage in selling because they believe a decline is imminent and they have the ability to avoid it. However, there are very few people who possess the skill needed to profit from market timing. Additionally, buying or holding — even at elevated prices — and experiencing a decline is in itself far from fatal. Usually, every market high is followed by a higher one and, after all, only the long-term return matters.

Most economies, companies and markets benefit from positive underlying trends. If investors use poor judgment and reduce market exposure through ill-conceived selling, they will fail to participate fully in those trends. That’s a cardinal sin in investing. It’s even more true of selling things in desperation after their prices have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses and dismounting from the miracle of the long-term compounding of returns. What’s clear to me is that as opposed to selling for reasons of psyche, simply being invested is by far “the most important thing”.

The full story, worthy on investors time, FT.COM -

[tongosti] 24/1/2022 08:06

Wan - don't be ridiculous pal but try to give an answer re dichotomy between underlying share price performance and your thesis over the last 15 months. While you note excellent whatever the share price is approaching 70. In markets (as in life) one can ignore reality but not its consequences.

[wan] 24/1/2022 07:57

I note the excellent Trading Update this morning from Myhealthchecked (MHC).

From which I note the following excerpts -

Penny McCormick, Chief Executive Officer of MyHealthChecked Plc, said: "I am extremely proud of the hard work and adaptability of the MyHealthChecked team in 2021, which has enabled us to succeed in a highly competitive retail market and deliver to the pharmacy leaders. We believe that the strong commercial relationships that have been established in 2021 and include both of the UK's top pharmacy retailers will provide a solid foundation as we look to commercialise a wider range of tests in H1 2022.

"We have worked to harness the opportunity that the COVID testing market has provided for us and the earnings generated have created significant growth in the business which we will continue to build upon in 2022. While there is still market uncertainty about the future of COVID testing, we are set to reinvest our earnings into the delivery of our growing product pipeline in 2022, and I look forward to providing future updates to investors."

(END)

In terms of COVID testing, the above is just one example relating directly to the UK, but as I have alluded to previously, testing 'beyond' COVID looks set to materially expand, and I am expecting EKF to have exposure to that significant 'global' growth opportunity.

Staying with COVID testing, at least 'for now', recall that in March 2021 EKF signed a 'multiyear', multi-million dollar global supply contract with its partner from the private sector materially contributing to EKF's 2021 performance and importantly 'beyond'. The contract has an initial term of two years after which it renews automatically on a monthly basis, taking the initial term to March 2023 (more on this shortly). EKF has also broadened its customer base reducing reliance on this single customer.

Readers will no doubt get my drift regarding the existing and future opportunity that test kits and the related products are offering over both the medium term, and indeed 'beyond!

[tongosti] 22/1/2022 12:06

You are talking about the last few weeks whereas the question you're being asked is how do you account for the last 15 months or so. More specifically since 9 Nov 2020 when ekf came to a screeching halt. Ndx is more than +20% since (even after the recent wobbles) I don't need to tell you what ekf has done since do I. Discuss.

[tongosti] 21/1/2022 23:38

Legitimate question but our Wan has no answer on that.

[jsredbird] 21/1/2022 16:36

Wan, I thank you for your extensive market info, but I think at this point it would be more useful to hear your take on the share price as of late. I’d like to hear opinions on why the price share is dipping in the face of record revenue and exceeded quarterly forecasts. What is going on?

[wan] 21/1/2022 07:20

Staying with testing beyond COVID-19, and in particular at-home collection.

Luke T. Daum, PhD, CSO at EKF. “I anticipate the market for home collection to expand exponentially. Novel at-home sample collection and stabilization kits containing optimized media that function beyond simple saline and PBS will be developed for a range of new diagnostic molecular tests.” -

Clinical Laboratories: 15 Industry Predictions for 2022

Prediction #4: Pharmacy-based and at-home testing will continue to grow and be widely accepted.

COVID has changed the testing dynamic, taking it out of traditional hospital or physician office venues, and into pharmacies and consumers’ homes. The experts see this trend continuing and even accelerating into 2022.

“The COVID pandemic opened the door to widespread use and acceptance of pharmacies as critical, convenient and rapid testing and vaccination centers,” notes Blum. The expansion of healthcare services by pharmacy clinics could be an opportunity for IVD companies to provide point-of-care, CLIA-waived tests for rapid, on-site testing at the clinics, and for local laboratories to partner with the pharmacies to provide more comprehensive and esoteric testing services.”

The range of tests available in the home, whether as prescription only test or without a prescription, will also continue to increase, further decentralizing the testing process.

“At-home collection has emerged from the current pandemic to become an important tool beyond COVID-19 detection. Traditionally, diagnostic tests need to be administered by a healthcare provider. At-home collection will allow users the flexibility to perform diagnostic testing from the comfort of the home. A few existing tests, like Cologuard require a prescription, but the at-home collection market will expand, and several exciting new tests will become available without a prescription and purchased online or over the counter,” says Luke T. Daum, PhD, CSO at EKF. “I anticipate the market for home collection to expand exponentially. Novel at-home sample collection and stabilization kits containing optimized media that function beyond simple saline and PBS will be developed for a range of new diagnostic molecular tests.”

Significantly, this trend is probably a genie-out-of-the-bottle moment in which at-home and other non-traditional forms of testing will not go away once the pandemic enters its endemic phase.

“COVID ushered in mobile, point-of-care and at-home diagnostics, along with the growth of telemedicine. These will continue to greatly impact the future of testing,” says Cha Roberts. “At-home diagnostics has made it easier, and more accessible for people to test and receive quick, accurate results. Moving forward, with high-sensitivity molecular tests, people will be able to test themselves, before they even start exhibiting symptoms, with high-sensitivity molecular tests.”

Decentralizing testing either in a neighborhood pharmacy or in a patient’s home will have benefits across the healthcare enterprise, predicts David Wilson, commercial director of diagnostics for Avacta Group plc.

“There is an increasing demand for more patient-centric healthcare, to not only deliver better clinical outcomes but also more cost-efficient healthcare solutions. For example, decentralized testing aims to bring testing out of the hospital laboratory and closer to the patient, and ultimately to point-of-care diagnostics and patient self-testing, to enable the delivery of healthcare where and when it is required,” says Wilson. “With faster turnarounds, test results will be delivered in clinically meaningful timeframes to truly inform clinical and treatment decisions, improving outcomes for patients. Presently, many tests done in the laboratory take time to process, and results are often returned after clinical decisions have already been made. Key applications would be in the rapid prescription of appropriate antibiotics, by quickly knowing that the pathogen is bacterial and its antimicrobial resistance profile, and in wider population screening for early detection of disease, which can make a huge difference in cancer outcomes.”

Further, decentralized testing will democratize the process, taking it out of the hands of specialists, Wilson predicts.

“This decentralized approach requires simple, accurate tests that require little specialist training to use—recent developments with COVID testing and the increased adoption of lateral flow tests for diagnosis, for example, have proven that the technologies are available to deliver these solutions,” he says. “The increased awareness and use of these diagnostics have also shown the capability of non-healthcare specialists to successfully run them. This will lay the groundwork for the adoption of decentralized testing for many other diseases, and potentially fuel the development of self-testing, to enable patients to take more control of their healthcare.”

Prediction #5: The menu of pathogen and genomic tests will increase.

Home testing will give birth to a growing menu of pathogen and genomic tests, according to Daum.

“I anticipate at-home testing to couple with ongoing advancements in molecular pathogen testing and genomic screening/susceptibility tests for cardiac, diabetes and cancer detection. I expect a growing ‘menu’ for biomarker and genomic-based tests in 2022. Users of at-home and over-the-counter tests will be able to monitor and manage chronic conditions before they emerge. The cost of long-read next-generation sequencing continues to become more cost efficient,” says Daum. “Thus, at-home genetic testing will expand in 2022 and beyond, opening attractive markets in bioinformatics where an individual’s genome, obtained from at-home collection can be stored and re-assessed prospectively as new genomics/genotyping tests are developed.”

Full article in digital magazine CLP 2022 Buyers Guide (EKF are included)-

[wan] 20/1/2022 08:31

Pldazzle...The following article coincidentally came onto my radar this morning (I wasn't specifically looking for it). It discusses clinical trials and biomaterials delivery supply due to the pandemic and how the companies reacted, collaborated, and overcome the challenges, including being 'prepared' for the big restart in clinical trials (and future pandemics/variants). Interestingly, the volume of molecular transport medium used in clinical trials is hardly trivial.

I believe EKF may have also been working with Cenetron Diagnostics in response to the pandemic (and possibly prior to), so others may also find it interesting on a number of fronts -

Innovation in an Integrated and Robust Clinical Trials and Biomaterials Solution

Phacilitate
18 January 2022

BRANDON HARPER – COO OF CENETRON DIAGNOSTICS, VERSITI SUITE OF SERVICES – AND DAN WAXMAN – VICE PRESIDENT AND SENIOR MEDICAL DIRECTOR OF THE VERSITI BLOOD CENTER – DISCUSS KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE DELIVERY OF CLINICAL TRIALS, AND BIOMATERIALS SUPPLY.

Brandon and Dan explain how an innovative, integrated and collaborative approach is crucial for the continued scale-up in advanced therapies, as well as lessons learned from interruptions to clinical trials and biomaterials delivery supply due to the pandemic.

How have clinical trials been affected by Covid-19, and what have you done or are you doing to overcome either exacerbated or novel challenges?

BH: If Covid-19 has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected and just to be prepared. I think we saw a big shift in the way clinical trials were run during Covid-19 and there were lots of issues from the supply side, the FDA even issued some guidance about decentralising supply chain.

For clinical trials in general, we saw a shift from patients being seen at doctors’ offices to being seen at home. With a lot of home visits as opposed to doctor’s office visits, the supply chain supply chain was one of the biggest problems that we ran into.

More generally, the supplies that were needed for clinical trials or other projects changed drastically. For one client where we would usually manufacture 100,000 tubes of a molecular transport medium, we found ourselves manufacturing ~8 million from March/April 2020 through to January 2021. This was a huge scale up for us personnel-wise, manufacturing-wise, clinical trial-wise, trying to keep our staff safe.

We run a lot of oncology and infectious disease trials so we couldn’t not be in the office or the lab. We therefore had to find ways of doing this safely, and also pivoting our business model a little bit. For example, we were very clinical trial-heavy at one point and moved over to manufacturing when the clinical trial piece slowed down because they couldn’t see patients. So I think that the biggest change was trying to overcome staffing and really just supply chain in general.

How did you collaborate with people who were perhaps outside the typical or expected sphere of potential partners?

BH: During the project I described above, where we were manufacturing molecular transport medium cryovials, the vials that were typically used to store this medium weren’t available. They came from overseas, you couldn’t get them in, there were huge delays in having them manufactured and we saw Coca Cola step in to help with manufacturing. So if you can imagine their 20-ounce Coca Cola bottles before they were blown up into the actual bottle itself, these are called preforms. These were small tubes with great seals, and we were able to obtain millions of them so that they could be used for the testing of Covid-19.

Full interview -

[pldazzle] 19/1/2022 13:48

Thanks Wan

[wan] 19/1/2022 13:08

Pldazzle...Thanks for the update.

The low volume I was referring to was based on most trial sizes. However, I did no research on it, and what you reveal is indeed quite interesting, but to my knowledge (which is limited), there are more reagents involved in COVID PCR tests than just what EKF supply. Again, what this also demonstrates is that there is pent up demand for reagents 'beyond' COVID testing (COVID testing is not going to disappear). And it's important to point out that it's not just COVID-19 testing that requires phosphate-buffered saline (PBS), or viral transport media such as PrimeStore® MTM, with PCR testing for other infectious diseases e.g. RSV, flu A, flu B, HIV, TB and more, also requiring the same products to run tests. Indeed, PBS (and variations of it) is also being used as sample preparation to run other tests such as ELISA and lateral flow.

[pldazzle] 19/1/2022 10:45

wan #2482.... Thanks. I gather the trial concerned addresses a potential $1bn market, so not peanuts. And a poster on the ADVFN AGL board quotes Jelenko on "the other site" as follows:
"The reagent that held up the ovarian is also used in the PCR covid test and as such there has been abnormal demand, the suppliers are limited because of the certification and quality control requirements for the labs that produce this so alternative suppliers are not found at the drop of a hat. I guess Angle's order was sequestered by PCR test providers. Apparently it is being sorted."

[wan] 19/1/2022 09:19

My "paradigm shift" comment/prediction in a previous post is gathering momentum. Watch this space!

Abbott, BD, Quidel pursue DTC strategies amid 'paradigm shift' for at-home, self-testing

The three test makers said at last week's J.P. Morgan conference they see opportunities for direct-to-consumer, digitally-connected testing for diseases beyond COVID-19.

Published Jan. 18, 2022

Abbott CEO Robert Ford said at last week's J.P. Morgan healthcare conference that the convergence of digital technology and medtech is creating "incredible opportunities to advance healthcare, change healthcare [and] change the way it's delivered."

Ford added that the company is specifically looking to "start to build a more sustainable rapid point-of-care, rapid diagnostic business not only that goes straight to the consumer, but also into other channels outside of the four walls of the hospital."

During Quidel's presentation at the J.P. Morgan conference, CEO Doug Bryant said digital health is "something that we don't talk a great deal about but, nevertheless, we have been spending a great deal of time on it."

Bryant noted that Quidel's integrated digital health and diagnostics products currently are focused on the enterprise and employee health markets. Still, the company is looking for near-term opportunities to expand into the consumer use market beyond COVID-19.

"We have to demonstrate that individuals can collect [specimens] properly and that will be very helpful in clinical trials where we try to demonstrate the sensitivity and specificity necessary to meet the FDA's hurdles for OTC products," the CEO said. "That's very much on the forefront of our minds and is something we're working on."

The goal is to empower consumers to take charge of their own health and wellness by decentralizing testing through investment in digital health, according to Bryant. Quidel is developing a self-test module for cell phones, called QVue, to report results in near real-time.

"A paradigm shift has occurred from the public," Bryant said "Now, with COVID, it has changed the way people think [about self-testing]."

Full story -

[wan] 19/1/2022 08:40

Pldazzle...Ultimately, I wouldn't know whether such reagents referred to are manufactured by EKF, or more to the point could be manufactured, or indeed whether on their own (relatively low volume?) such reagents would be of any interest.

Importantly though, what it does highlight, is that having a reliable supply chain 'partner' like EKF, is paramount. In this regard, the implementation of EKF's growth plan and indeed the acquisition of ADL, has added further to that attraction in my view.

[pldazzle] 18/1/2022 19:58

wan and other experts ... a question for you. Apart from EKF I also hold shares in AGL, which last week gave the following update on (inter alia) a major ovarian cancer study involving two of the company's platforms and for which [positive] results had been hoped for in H2/21:

"... While good progress has been made in many areas of the ovarian cancer study, there have been some third-party supply chain difficulties attributed to COVID-19. A key supplier has been unable to deliver certain reagents as scheduled. Completion of the study sample analysis depends on these reagents and the situation is being closely managed. Consequently, headline results for the study are now expected in H1 2022."

Is there any reason to suppose there might be anything of direct or indirect interest in this for EKF, either before or after today's announcement?

[cambridgedon] 18/1/2022 15:48

Ton/Crazy,
Good to have the debate since it crops up here regularly.
CD