Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 13/12/2021 12:42

Omicron becoming a major concern. How come this stock is not moving then wan?

[wan] 13/12/2021 07:25

I note Myhealthchecked trading update today -

Trading update

Full year results to meet or exceed higher end of expectation range

MyHealthChecked Plc (AIM: MHC), the consumer home-testing healthcare company, provides an update on trading for the year ending 31 December 2021, which is expected to exceed the higher end range of current market expectations for EBITDA, and meet the higher end range of current market expectations for turnover.

As announced on 29 September 2021, MyHealthChecked experienced strong trading in Q3 delivering further revenue growth, a move into a positive EBITDA position and quarterly cash generation for the first time.

Despite an anticipated quieter fourth quarter, given that travel volumes are traditionally lower over that period, high levels of demand for the recently reinstated PCR Day-2 test kits and associated laboratory services have resulted in further strong trading in Q4. The Board is now confident that the full year revenues will be around GBP16m (FY 2020: GBP49.5k) and deliver an adjusted EBITDA profit of at least GBP2.1m (FY 2020: GBP2.7m loss). The business will be cash generative for the year and the Board expects cash balances to be at least GBP4.6m at the end of the year (31 Dec 2020: GBP0.47m) .


Separately within the above, I also note the following with regard to 2022 -

"We have established strong commercial partnerships with both of the UK's top pharmacy retailers and executed on a business development strategy across direct to consumer, retail and B2B channels. Next year we look forward to launching an initial portfolio of home wellness tests alongside our enhanced digital platform, providing indications around weight management, vitamin deficiency, food intolerances, heart health and blood glucose and expect these tests and accompanying digital outputs to be the first in a new portfolio of long-term growth drivers for our business."

[tongosti] 08/12/2021 10:22

Not that it matters to this board (go figure) but gigantic volumes are being traded this week with price as shy as usual. In the context of omicron, it's quite something. Wan - haven't heard from you for a while pal.

[tongosti] 03/12/2021 18:38

Have you compared that with what you would have received by simply investing in a tracker? No price appreciation but you got a few pennies. That's great until you realise you had better invested in SPY 12 months ago and have bagged a HUGE price appreciation AND the usual dividends. Cold hard numbers pal

[crazycoops] 03/12/2021 15:33

Frustration? Holders received their annual dividend just yesterday!

[tongosti] 03/12/2021 12:37

Signs of frustration building up?

[cambridgedon] 03/12/2021 08:03

The share price could certainly benefit from a kick up the bum! Let's hope this helps.
CD

[beckaroo] 02/12/2021 21:09

Good news, it looks like EKF have received an extension to end of March for their supply contract to UKHSAhttps://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W47/763625836UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has varied a contract awarded to EKF Diagnostics Holding PLC for the provision of Primestore Transport Media in custom tubes to fast-track Covid 19 testing. The Contract will be extended until 31/03/2022. The value of this extension during the extension period will be up to £600,000. As the original value of the Contract was £1.2 million, this means that the total value of the Contract including the extension period will be a maximum of £1.8 million.

[tongosti] 02/12/2021 08:51

Do we think his confidence is still intact heading to Christmas in the context of his wild prediction? Lol

[tongosti] 30/11/2021 08:21

Love that "putting pressure" statement. Am sure it does but ekf clearly is not benefitting from it. Share price at multi month lows - for a reason I dare say?

[wan] 30/11/2021 08:04

Published Nov. 29, 2021
Dive Brief:
The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant, named omicron (B.1.1.529), is putting pressure on diagnostics manufacturers who test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 to ensure its results are not impacted. Thermo Fisher Scientific, Qiagen and Lucira Health were quick to claim their tests can detect the emerging variant.



PCR testing and sequencing are thus likely to see an notable increase in demand.

Moving on to EKF as a whole (beyond COVID testing), it's worth considering the fact that EKF is not standing still, albeit we will know more about progress and delivery of the Growth Strategy in due course. In this regard, it's worth recalling Singer's headlines to its research note on EKF from July -

EKF recently unveiled a strategy for driving growth in the business over the next few years. It will be led by a refreshed executive management team and board, building on renewed strength in the core business and opportunities in developing wider contract development and manufacturing activities. Accretive bolt-on acquisitions will also be considered, all funded by the current strong net cash position of the group. Overall, the ambition is to deliver sustainable double-digit EBITDA growth into the medium term. This note takes a detailed look at the growth drivers and opportunities now in prospect. In addition to introducing conservative formal FY22 & FY23 estimates for the first time, we also look at a range of potential scenarios, one of which shows how EBITDA could reach £45.9m by FY24. Putting that on a multiple of 13- 15x implies a potential Enterprise Value of £597-688m, against a current EV of £314m. Successful delivery should therefore lead to material value creation.
(END)

Interestingly, the following came onto my radar today and uses a measure that implies EKF is currently undervalued by 33% with a current share price on 74p versus a fair value of £1.11 -

Compared to the current share price of UK£0.7, the company appears quite good value at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

[tongosti] 29/11/2021 15:49

First time since April 2020 this firmly below 200dma. Again, Mr Market keeps sending you messages chaps and chapesses. As Paul Tudor Jones put it "...I save myself a lot of money by staying on the right side of the 200dma". HmmmPS. Sure as day mgs of the world know better than some WS legends, right? Lol.

[tongosti] 29/11/2021 09:44

Sounds like you try very hard to convince yourself pal and that's sad. I find your daily ramping (while ignoring the cold fact the market has stalled for a very long IN THE MIDST of the pandemic) utterly ... entertaining in nature. PS. Out of curiosity - what do you do for a living - any chance you're part of the same exact ... industry? Lol

[wan] 29/11/2021 08:52

Its worth repeating again, that an important lesson from the emergence of the Omicron variant, is the value of 'continued' genomic surveillance in providing the world with advance warning for the new variant and other mutations, and thus the need to further expand effective testing and sequencing as forming a long-term strategy in pandemic preparedness.

In light of the new variant and the fact that the virus will continue to mutate, I expect to see other diagnostic players confirming the performance of using their PCR tests in detecting Omicron (and potentially other emerging mutations).

[wan] 29/11/2021 08:08

Most PCR tests can detect the Omicron variant, but it will still require sequencing as exemplified by Thermo Fishers release this morning -

Thermo Fisher Scientific Confirms Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Samples Containing the Omicron Variant with its TaqPath COVID-19 Tests
NEWS PROVIDED BY

Thermo Fisher Scientific
Nov 29, 2021

The Omicron variant has been found to include the 69-70del mutation of the S gene, first identified as a mutation in the Alpha variant. This mutation causes a dropout of the S-gene target in results from the TaqPath test, which could indicate to clinicians and researchers a possible Omicron variant infection. Confirmation must then be performed by sequencing the sample.

"The Thermo Fisher test allowed us to detect cases that may contain the new variant by identifying samples exhibiting S-gene dropout," said Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), Stellenbosch University and UKZN, South Africa. "This early identification is very important in helping us track and understand the spread of the B.1.1.529 variant to South Africa and the world."


Which in turn exemplifies the WHO recommendation above for enhanced surveillance and sequencing efforts, not just for Omicron, but to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.

[tongosti] 27/11/2021 11:25

Listen to what Mr Market tells you or what Mr Wan does? Hmmm. Wan - you're indeed quite passionate about the company but am afraid you have fallen in love with it (happens the whole time on these boards). The stock market game is a performance oriented discipline and evidence-led. Think about it :)

[wan] 27/11/2021 09:32

EKF is not a pure play on COVID-19 testing, but it seems like a bit of an overreaction in terms of the share price reaction, but time will of course tell!

To my mind this new variant situation highlights the importance of the fact that we will need to perform genomic surveillance of COVID-19 for a very, very long time, and indeed the necessity of having access to relevant samples 'at scale' to do undertake this. EKF of course provide two specimen collection options.

Given current concerns regarding the new variant, along with the fact that current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect the new variant, it maybe that the attributes of PrimeStore MTM (and possibly ATM) that effectively inactivate RNA, mRNA and DNA pathogens (including SARS-Cov-2) for safer and faster collection, whilst preserving and stabilizing labile DNA and RNA for downstream molecular applications e.g. sequencing, could 'further' become the preferred option due to factors such as safer handling and more flexible/available transport options.

Recall that, unlike standard devices for collecting and transporting biological samples, PrimeStore® MTM begins to inactivate pathogens, proteins and enzymes immediately upon insertion, allowing the sample to be tested right away or shipped at ambient temperature to a testing facility anywhere in the world. Ambient specimen shipping for testing and sequencing would arguably suit certain climates, especially those with limited cold chain shipping options, and especially a sample collection option which enables highly sensitive molecular testing without subjecting workers to live infectious agents.

I note the following WHO release, which states

As such, countries are asked to do the following:

> enhance surveillance and sequencing efforts to better understand circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.

> submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database, such as GISAID.

>report initial cases/clusters associated with VOC infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.

>where capacity exists and in coordination with the international community, perform field investigations and laboratory assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of the VOC on COVID-19 epidemiology, severity, effectiveness of public health and social measures, diagnostic methods, immune responses, antibody neutralization, or other relevant characteristics.

Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern
26 November 2021


Another aspect that also crossed my mind was how effective the current lateral flow tests (LFT) are at detecting the variant. And perhaps the fact that British nationals arriving from the red list countries who have been in these countries within the last ten days, must quarantine at home for ten days and take PCR tests on day two and day 8, even if they already have a lateral flow test, might imply that the LFT might miss the infection. In any regard, either way two at home PCR tests is a 'requirement'! Plus, I duly note that EKF recently confirmed a new contract for supply of PrimeStore MTM to testing labs based at major UK airports.

Elsewhere, I note that walk-in Covid-19 test centres are experiencing a surge in demand for PCR testing, and in reaction to the new variant, the Gujarat govt in India mandated RT-PCR testing at airports for travellers of 11 countries.

There is much more to EKF than COVID-19 testing, but it's worthy of note that the recent purchase of ADL Health positions EKF as a single provider able to encompass all products and services from ‘sample-to-result’, which of course has not yet been reflected in any previous update or results coverage.

On another note, the dividend payment is next week, which can be very useful for number of reasons/uses!

[tongosti] 26/11/2021 12:31

Like I said good luck - you will need it champ lol

[sirshagalot] 26/11/2021 12:25

I do ok thanks to you and your posts :-P you only have to shout BOO! and they sell.

[tongosti] 26/11/2021 12:17

Who exactly has profited from a sideways share? No need to reply - it's rhetorical pal. Good luck champ.

[sirshagalot] 26/11/2021 12:09

All i see is some profit taking IMHO.
Fundamentals to me seem intact.

[tongosti] 26/11/2021 11:56

EKF should benefit? Love the broken record argument again. Lol

we are in the midst of a pandemic with no end in sight and yet this stock hasn't gone anywhere in 13 months. ever question yourself why?

Translation - in all likelihood all pandemic related benefits to ekf have all been discounted by late Oct 2020. Been making the same point for over a year now. Did any of you ever read markets are forward looking machines and in the business of continuously discounting the future 12-18 months out?

Seriously folks, get a grip, think critically and grow up if you want to beat the market. more importantly, do away with wishful thinking. Hope is the most expensive word in the world of money - according to Sir John Templeton of course (am sure he knew a thing or two about the proverbial long term)

P.S. MG - care to update us on the latest performance numbers or shall we extrapolate to 2025 so that you're still happy? lol

[sirshagalot] 26/11/2021 11:49

Its the "NU" African virus that has hit the markets on a lot of shares rr,easyjet for example are hit hard for obvious reasons.
Ekf should benefit in a way as i said before covid has legs in it yet!.
Maybe a new vaccine may be needed since existing looses 40% effectiveness against this new variant.

[tongosti] 26/11/2021 11:42

Here we go chaps,73 printing.

Plenty on here have fallen in love with wan’s never changing thesis and refuse to see cold hard facts. Today we are hearing of a new covid related variant and yet ekf still tanks. Doesn’t this merit a proper discussion on this board? This is exactly what you should discuss - are you missing something in your broken record story? Literally.

Made exact same point on Nov 9 2020 but folks were up in arms.

LISTEN to what the market is telling you!

[sirshagalot] 26/11/2021 10:17

opens 3 liter bottle of white lightning