Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[wan] 01/2/2022 07:42

Investors should keep the paradigm shift in consumer-initiated lab testing firmly in mind, with EKF's 'proprietary' CLIA laboratory testing portfolio beyond COVID-19 assays, already set for expansion.

The size of the market and the growth on offer is exemplified by the following collaboration -

Quest Partners With Walmart to Offer Consumer-Initiated Testing
Jan 31, 2022

According to a recent Quest Health Trends report, 60 percent of US adults said they have skipped or delayed some in-person medical treatments or appointments due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"While many are too busy or face barriers to engage in in-person doctors' appointments, others choose to proactively arm themselves with diagnostic insights before engaging with one," Steve Rusckowski, Quest's chairman, president, and CEO, said in a statement. "Our close relationship with Walmart has allowed us to create a solution that is high quality and accessible. Powered by QuestDirect from Quest Diagnostics, this new solution can broaden access to laboratory testing and health insights, and support for a range of conditions for potentially better outcomes."
Full article -

Also of note within the above - Customers can then either schedule an appointment at a Quest draw center or arrange for delivery of an at-home collection kit, depending on the test.

EKF is already experienced and active in the field of at-home collection kits.

[wan] 28/1/2022 07:57

Danaher reported yesterday beating consensus estimates (they had previously guided that they would). There are a number of interesting sector stats worthy of note. With regard to the end of 2021 and the outlook 2022, several comments stood out, particularly; "assuming the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic, the point-of-care respiratory market will expand significantly compared to before the pandemic and that Cepheid will continue to gain market share".

Danaher Q4 Revenues Rise 21 Percent
Jan 27, 2022 | staff reporter

In 2021, Cepheid more than doubled its production capacity for respiratory tests, Blair said.

Patient volumes in the clinical diagnostics arena are at or near pre-pandemic levels, he noted, although Danaher has seen "modest disruptions" in certain regions, including parts of China and Europe, as a result of the pandemic.

In the molecular diagnostics space, the demand for Cepheid's point-of-care respiratory tests has been heightened by both the Omicron variant and a more active respiratory season in the Northern hemisphere, a trend Blair said the company expects to continue. The respiratory season has driven preference for the 4-in-1 respiratory panel, he added.

Cepheid anticipates shipping the same number of respiratory tests in the first quarter of 2022 as it did in Q4 and is predicting 50 million respiratory tests for all of 2022, Blair said.

During the year, Cepheid placed 10,000 new GeneXpert instruments, reaching a total installed base of more than 40,000 instruments, Blair said. He added that, assuming the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic, the point-of-care respiratory market will expand significantly compared to before the pandemic and that Cepheid will continue to gain market share.

Blair noted on the call that the firm has returned to pre-pandemic order levels and has not seen widespread declines in that activity despite some countries implementing lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the company is "not immune" to supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures affecting other businesses, Blair said Danaher is "proactively addressing" those issues.

For both the first quarter and full year of 2022, Danaher forecasted non-GAAP core revenue growth in the base business in the high single digits, including the impact of COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic-related revenues and excluding the impact of COVID-19 testing revenue.

Full article -

[wan] 27/1/2022 09:46

Abbott reported yesterday, which sheds at least some light on the uncertainty surrounding 2022. Note: In terms of testing, Abbott is particularly focused on rapid testing. Excerpts follow -

Abbott Q4 revenue beats estimates on demand for COVID-19 tests; Company warns of 2022 uncertainty
Published Jan. 26, 2022

Abbott Laboratories on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter sales of $11.5 billion, a 7.7% increase on an organic basis from a year ago, driven by a surge in demand for COVID-19 tests and gains in its base business.

Evercore ISI analysts in a Wednesday note commented that Abbott's "testing assumptions seem derisked" given the company's visibility into revenues.

Dive Brief:
Abbott Laboratories on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter sales of $11.5 billion, a 7.7% increase on an organic basis from a year ago, driven by a surge in demand for COVID-19 tests and gains in its base business.

Dive Insight:
Abbott and other diagnostics makers continue to benefit from surging COVID-19 test demand and are scaling up production. However, when demand will slow remains unclear.

Ford warned that the testing market remains volatile and is going to be challenging to forecast in 2022. CFO Robert Funck added that Abbott will update its test guidance "one quarter at a time" throughout the year.

"Every year there's a little bit of uncertainty in the beginning of the year. But, this year, there's probably a little bit more than usual," Ford said, while noting the macro challenges to forecasting including the omicron surge, healthcare-staffing shortages, supply-chain issues, inflation and currency challenges.

Another factor is the volatility of COVID-19 test demand and how that will "play out throughout the rest of the year," Ford added. At the same time, the CEO said he doesn't expect coronavirus testing "to simply go to zero starting the second quarter" and "there's potential for the upside of more Covid testing" for the remainder of 2022.

Looking ahead overall to the first quarter, Abbott forecasts high-single-digit organic sales growth excluding the impact of COVID-19 testing sales. Ford told investors the company's initial full-year 2022 guidance for adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.70 takes into account as much as possible a host of challenges.

J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note on Wednesday that Abbott's earnings-per-share target of at least $4.70 comes in modestly below consensus of $4.75, despite having higher coronavirus testing revenues of $2.5 billion versus about $1 billion baked in.

"Almost all the Covid testing revenues in 2022 guidance is assumed through March/April, meaning we'll likely see EPS upgrades throughout the year on higher testing sales," the analysts wrote.

Full article -

[cisk] 26/1/2022 19:45

Tong, don't know you well enough to call you an idiot - so I take it back. Just because I disagree with your posts and find them overly negative. And life is too short for all that kind of stuff. Anyway we've both filtered each other so that's that.

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 16:53

Actually who is who in this game is very easy (not for you obviously) to establish darling. Those on the right side of the markets consistently and over time. Guess your foul language gives you and your "acumen" away. FILTERED

[wan] 26/1/2022 16:53

I am not sure what Tong's point is, but to be clear the following aligns with the long-term chart above at the top of the thread -

March 11 — WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic

In declaring COVID-19 a pandemic, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of WHO, said at a briefing in Geneva the agency is “deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity” of the outbreak. He also expressed concern about “the alarming levels of inaction.”


cgequityinvest...I agree that there is lack of visibility re 2022 forecast, which the market does not appear to have liked (perhaps when making a comparison to the TU from last January?), but to be fair it's very early days!

Let's see what the large diagnostic players have to say when reporting results over the next few days.

[cisk] 26/1/2022 16:47

Tong, you're an idiot. Back to filtering for you.

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 16:43

been skeptic for more than 15 months (and proven right by Mr Market) but clearly this period of time doesn't qualify as long term to some. Bizarre is the word that comes to mind.

Live and let be - afterall you're in great company. The multitudes do indeed love playing macho with markets. wont tell you who wins the game though ... lol

[cisk] 26/1/2022 16:34

Cge, agree completely with all your comments.

I'm completely in the do-nothing-unless-something-changes camp. Foolish maybe, but I'm in no hurry and nothing has happened to alter my long-term view. Yes I could make more money and sell and buy lower if I think the price will drop. Having said that, someone would probably come with a knock-out takeover bid if I did sell (in the hope of buying lower!) Besides which I'm not a trader.

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 16:30

No such thing as bull/bear threads is it? Only threads where people contrast and exchange views. If you don’t like what you (would like to) read - use the filter button. That’s what makes markets. If one falls in love with bull/bear side permanently that’s called wishful thinking and out and out gambling (no matter what horizon one is on).

Anyone else who “loaded up” on the low of March 2020?!


PS. Irrelevant to Warren Buffets of this board of course the closing price for the day: 59.4 printed. Nothing has changed indeed expect the collapsing share price (which makes or loses one money, believe it or not). Funny world one lives in.

[cgequityinvest] 26/1/2022 16:19

Cisk - thanks for the reminder and message.

I filtered Tangastic some time ago - having looked at his posts on other boards and found a trend of aggressive and pompous remarks - why does he spend so much time trying to belittle other investors and their views partic. if he has no shareholding!

Back to EKF - share price has been weak recently and whilst i believe the long term upside is considerable i suspect the weakness has been down to a combination of:
1/ general derating of growth stocks
2/ lack of visibility on 2022 forecasts (management say they will update at time of results release) altho management are still i believe sticking by their 10% growth in EBITDA on an annual basis
3/ lack of understanding as to the potential for growth in their non Covid markets. I think they need to be more open and clear in this respect.

Finally - Wan - thanks for your contributions.

[cisk] 26/1/2022 15:36

Can we please focus on fundamentals on this board?

Anything else is irrelevant to long term holders.

Thhe market does not care about the past, only the future. The fact that the recent TU says EKF will beat the already readjusted expectations for 2021 means nothing (unless we are a cash shell and the cash being generated is > mkt value, then the mkt takes notice).

EKF have done very well during the pandemic. Mkt thinks this is a short term bounce and doesn't know / believe that future income will exceed the past. That's why we are dropping.

If you believe in the company's future & strategy, buy / continue to hold and keep the faith.

If you don't, please stop filling this board with negativity. You're entitled to your views but maybe start an EKF bears thread!

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 15:00

“having bought several large amounts at 16p & 17p when the pandemic first hit”

Speaks volumes re your acumen (or lack of it?!) - one can’t make this one up.

Apologies board - think I have really wasted time with this fella - you buying the absolute low during the pandemic?

Clearly, anyone who knows a thing or two about this game would laugh their heads off.

Thank you for letting us know though - won’t take more of your time. Am sure you have other things to do. Lol

Who knows, maybe the mg's of this board will still pay heed to your nonsense. Copying and pasting bits and pieces from random broker reports (or corporate cheerleaders as they are otherwise known) give one a much needed (false) sense of confidence. Knock it out pal.

FILTERED

P.S. I also regularly buy the Amazons and Googles of the world at absolute bear market lows. Joking - been looking to find THE Rosetta Stone all my life but without success. Apparently you have - LOL

[wan] 26/1/2022 14:55

Tongosti...Having built a stake over many years at materially lower prices than today (as well as topping up at higher prices too), my overall average yield is of course very much higher, and also having bought several large amounts at 16p & 17p when the pandemic first hit, it perhaps does amount to a 'wow' in terms of yield, and indeed a wow in terms of capital appreciation too, and a long-term effect that I am expecting to continue!

Your approach is very different to mine, but as you can tell, my approach has materially delivered (despite the recent pull back), and again I am expecting the investment in EKF to continue in the same vein, whilst collecting progressive dividends, as well as benefiting from the opportunities generated from the partnership with Mount Sinai.

To put that medium to long-term into some context, EKF's broker commented on EKF's strategy for driving growth in the business over the next few years and has looked at a range of potential scenarios, one of which shows how EBITDA could reach £45.9m by FY24. Putting that on a multiple of 13-15x implies a potential Enterprise Value of £597-688m, against a current EV of circa £300m.

Apparently, at the end of H1 2021, the global, all market average Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple for listed Healthcare companies was 17.2x, therefore, even being conservative, a successful execution of EKF's Growth Strategy should lead to material value creation. ​

That sort of timescale and the potential outcome requires patience and a committed investment, which I appreciate will be of no interest to you.

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 13:35

For those who do not live in make believe world but rather see facts in the face for what they are. FTSE has staged a very strong rally today whereas this share is not able to recover past the knock out blow post latest update. Goes to show (again) that wan's argument that this is wider market's led is wishful thinking, at best.

[tongosti] 26/1/2022 09:59

You've lost about 30% or price wise but you're getting 2% yield Wow.

[wan] 26/1/2022 07:58

If one considers the dividend (and I am not considering this in isolation), and a progressive dividend policy perhaps indicating a dividend of 1.2p, then the current pricing is yielding close to 2%. OK there are higher yields on offer, but it does not take into account any realised investment from the partnership with Mount Sinai.

Anyway, I added at yesterday's lows, and kept some powder dry for further intent(just in case I can match it again, or improve on it).

There are a number of very interesting areas I have been watching/following, of which more later, but two comments that recently caught my attention was from EKF's Chief Scientific Officer, Luke Daum, who yesterday commented that he was "Truly Grateful to be part of so many new ‘cutting edge’ molecular product and service initiatives at EKF Diagnostics."

And in a very recent article: “I anticipate the market for home collection to expand exponentially. Novel at-home sample collection and stabilization kits containing optimized media that function beyond simple saline and PBS will be developed for a range of new diagnostic molecular tests.”

I would suggest that the two comments are not entirely separate per se.

[richman777114] 25/1/2022 15:37

I was beginning to respect his views as a trader (not investor) so that response is disappointingYes I am long but from 5 or 6 years ago when the excellent Paul Scott brought the company to my attention and I bought at 16pI understand that being a trader his 'investing' time horizon doesn't stretch that far and he would thus assume I was in at the March 2020 low

[tongosti] 25/1/2022 15:30

"Tong i didnt say that markets are irrational All of the time. Only some of the time."

How do you know now is THAT time? You don't is the truth do you. In addition, are you allowing for uncertainty (after all the future is an uncertain quantity in the universe we live in) in your thinking (apparently you are not judging from your rationale that "nothing has changed").

Re your other question, two reasons I would think pal:

- it’s all been in the price. Technicals proceed fundamentals type of thing. Put another way: markets are in the business of discounting the future relentlessly. That distant +400% bull market (ending in Nov 20) discounted A LOT going forward and ran out of future (to discount). The proof was in this board’s unanimous consensus that the only way was up and lone voices arguing the contrary got hostile reception.

- weak general markets

GL

[richman777114] 25/1/2022 15:26

I'm long and in from 16p but regretting not selling a few more in the high 70sThe answer to your question is earnings returning to near pre Covid levels and thus a very stretched valuationThe directors recognised this, hence the sales in the 80s-shrewdBut on a long term view this remains a hold for the non-Covid income streams and potential Mt Sinai related spinoffsIMHO DYOR

[the shuffle man] 25/1/2022 15:15

Tong i didnt say that markets are irrational All of the time. Only some of the time.

What has the market seen in this positive update to make the share price fall even further ?

[tongosti] 25/1/2022 15:04

60 - do not shoot the messenger chaps, its what Mr Market is voting for ...


"When the news seems bullish (to fundamentally-driven agents who do not understand managing risk but are rather "on a sure thing") and the share price goes the other way, the market is bearish". Market Psalms 10:1

[tongosti] 25/1/2022 13:09

Markets are rational MOST of the time hence very few manage to beat it. Fact. As the expression goes, 60 million Frenchmen can't be wrong. So is with markets - MOST of the time. If what you say is true (that markets are irrational most of the time) than every man and his dog would beat the market routinely, right? Wrong wrong wrong. We know the answer to this one don't we. Fact: why do you think some of the smartest companies in the business (with an army of top educated staff and limitless pockets) find is so hard to beat the market if he were irrational most of time? Clearly, you have a particular way to look at markets so I am not hear to convince you look at facts you do not want to recognise (that the market MAY be on to something not buying your fundamental thesis, for example). You may want to bear in mind that maths works against your worn out (I-know-what-i-am-doing-and-the-market-hasn't-got-a-clue) thesis: if Mr Market takes this down 50%, you would need just:) +100% just to get to break even. If 90% down you would need +1000% to break even again. Am sure this is not exactly small feat for the average retail player. Or is it? How many fundamentally driven players have been there over and over again? That's right pal - you know financial history is littered with a multitude of disappointed investors who thought playing macho with Mr Market is a good idea. My two cents: If volumes pick up (they haven't so far) on the downside, the path of least resistance takes this to 48 first and then 33. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst is the mantra. Markets are crowded with multitudes who are good at the former not the latter. Good luck.

[the shuffle man] 25/1/2022 12:32

If the market was rational all the time everything would be perfectly priced and there would be no opportunities.

To me the fundamentals look good and the price will eventually reflect them.