Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[cisk] 07/4/2022 16:08

Tong, congratulations on your clairvoyance. I'm sure I stand with other posters on this board in appreciation.

[tongosti] 06/4/2022 16:48

High volumes breaking down below 40. Am sure wan will find a fresh of reasons to be cheerful tomorrow whilst all previous paper profits evaporate

[tongosti] 06/4/2022 14:44

Hope you're feeling much better pal. Explanation in two sentences: 1. there were no disbelievers left meaning the business has been having to catch-up with sky high expectations of tree growing to the sky 2. C19 business related boost was priced in way before the vaccine news broke out.

[nurdin] 06/4/2022 13:52

Having been absent from the market for some time due to health reasons I was shocked to see the collapse in the share price here from 80pish on my return.Cant see any news that would justify such a fall.Can anyone offer an explanation? Many thanks.

[wan] 06/4/2022 07:52

I note Yourgene are set to layout their roadmap and growth plans -

06/04/2022 7:01am
RNS Non-Regulatory

Yourgene Health PLC

06 April 2022

Yourgene Health plc

("Yourgene" or the "Company")

Capital Markets Day

Manchester, UK - 6 April 2022: Yourgene (AIM: YGEN), a leading international molecular diagnostics group, announces it will be holding a Capital Markets Day for investors on Tuesday 26 April 2022.

The event will provide investors with a compelling opportunity to hear more from other senior members of the management team about the roadmap and growth plans for certain products and services, both in North America and internationally, as well as perspectives on the dynamics within the molecular diagnostics market and the scope for growing the Company's genomic services business.

An opening and closing address will be given by CEO, Lyn Rees who will provide an overview of the Company and where it is currently positioned. The event will also feature presentations by:

-- Dr Rachel Shelmerdine, Product Management
-- Scott Sargent, Vice President, Sales Americas
-- Bhavika Patel, Technical Director, Yourgene Genomic Services
-- Jonathan Seaton, Non-Executive Director, Yourgene Health plc
The event will be repeated in the City of London at 4pm for non-institutional investors and will be followed by light refreshments and an opportunity to talk to the senior management further.

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 13:29

Wan - if you have anything to say re demand supply for shares (the ultimate variable that matters) let us know pal. All ears.

[drew lonmenob] 05/4/2022 12:53

just repaying the compliment dear chap wrongun

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 12:46

Been wrong indeed Bobby doughnut from 80p down on here. Enjoying stalking me on these boards?

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 12:38

On the three day timeframe you have increasing volumes on the way down. In other words, the selling pressure far outweighs the other side of the trade. Hence the balance of odds favours the short side, as of now.

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 12:26

You got it wrong. Supply and demand for shares is what I was talking about. As in any other asset prices, interaction of demand and supply dictates what one gets for labour / houses / commodities / whatever. In the stock market it is SHARES. If you understood what drives imbalances in such an equation you would see what I see. Very funny supply and demand are crucial in economics but somehow folks have convinced themselves understanding it properly in finance is redundant?! Go figure what passes for common sense these days.

[wan] 05/4/2022 10:48

Staying with supply and demand as ultimately making or losing hard cash.

On the one hand EKF expects COVID-19 testing to continue, but for COVID-related revenues to materially reduce in 2022. Clearly COVID-19 had a very negative impact on other areas of the healthcare market in which EKF operate.

So, all things being equal, other healthcare markets will continue to significantly improve (and grow) as demonstrated by EKF Results detailing the performance of the core businesses segments.

In other words, there is a two way street in operation, albeit for the time being there is a speed restriction on our side of the street as EKF execute on the Growth Strategy and retransition to growth, which includes addressing opportunities in new markets and the distribution of new products, with EKF ultimately increasing their exposure to various growth areas of the healthcare and life science markets.

Put another way, EKF itself is not remotely stagnating, which is presumably why EKF's broker, Singer Capital Markets, viewed any share price weakness as a strong buying opportunity.

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 09:26

While Wan is getting ready to uncork the bubbly (for a change), the market is on the verge of a breakdown. If we touch 40, then 33 will be reached in the blink of an eye, in all likelihood. It's a very funny business where folks choose to ignore the number 1 fundamental - the interaction of demand and supply which ultimately makes or loses one cold hard cash!

[wan] 05/4/2022 09:13

Buywell...5,950,000 to be precise!

I duly noted SBI's results.

There is an important and fundamental difference regarding the buyback. SBI's recent acquisition, along with future earnout payments are all payable in cash. Whereas EKF's recent acquisition was satisfied by the issue of new ordinary shares at 80p+ to the value of £10mn. A similar amount of shares are now being bought back at 40p+ and held in treasury. And as my post 2612 above alludes to, the treasury shares could potentially be utilised to satisfy the ADL earnouts.

And wouldn't it be good business if the shares at the various earnout anniversaries are materially higher than current buybacks, potentially meaning in my book that the treasury shares were even better value (to EKF and its investors), bearing in mind that the price per share issued to satisfy any earnout payments will be calculated using the average mid-market closing price of EKF’s shares for the five working days immediately preceding the issuance date of such shares.

Obviously we don't know where the share price might be come October (1st ADL anniversary), but we know there will be news flow between now and October and we know there are various developments in the pipeline, including further execution on the Growth Strategy.

So, for the purpose of an example and perhaps only for those with a positive and longer term view on EKF. Imagine a scenario where earnouts are calculated at an average mid-market closing price of EKF’s shares at 60p+ (being conservative!) when EKF are holding shares in treasury bought at 40p+.

Food for thought!

[tongosti] 05/4/2022 08:43

Mr Market ain't impressed.

[buywell2] 05/4/2022 08:10

6M buybacks and only another 3M left is that not correct

Then quite a long wait for the next tranche if it gets the nod

Interestingly SBI have not announced an initial/interim buyback program like EKF

What say you wan ?

05 Apr 2022 7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Purchase of Own Shares
04 Apr 2022 7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Purchase of Own Shares
01 Apr 2022 7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Purchase of Own Shares
31 Mar 2022 7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Purchase of Own Shares
30 Mar 2022 7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Purchase of Own Shares
29 Mar 2022 7:01 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Share Buyback Programme
7:00 am
RNS
Factsheet EKF Diagnostics Hldg (EKF) Final Results

[tongosti] 31/3/2022 16:34

Agreed on IC. Have already been proven right from 80+ to 43. Now the question is will I be proven right for another plunge down to 33? Time will tel pal but that's my call. Very nasty reversal earlier this week from a max price of 55.

[wan] 31/3/2022 16:33

Cisk...I don't know about the IC track record in that regard, but one assumes they are aligning with the Singer note. Still, I suppose the wider market perception is currently coinciding well with the planned share buyback (effectively shares issued at 80p+ v buyback at 40p+).

Perhaps an example of how treasury shares could be reissued/utilized -

Additional consideration

Subject to the EBITDA performance of ADL Health for each of the three yearly periods ending on the first, second and third anniversaries of completion, additional consideration will be payable to the vendors of ADL Health (“Earnout Payments”).

Provided always that the ADL Health’s EBITDA (“ADL EBITDA”) for the relevant period (as set out below) is not less than $5 million, EKF shall make Earnout Payments to the vendors calculated as to:

30% of ADL EBITDA for the period from the day following completion to the first anniversary of completion; plus
20% of ADL EBITDA for the period from the day following the first anniversary of completion to the second anniversary of completion; and
10% of ADL EBITDA for the period from the day following the second anniversary of completion to the third anniversary of completion

The aggregate Earnout Payments are capped and will not exceed $60 million. The Earnout Payments will be satisfied by the further issuance of EKF ordinary shares covering 50% of each Earnout Payment, with the remaining 50% to be satisfied at the discretion of the ADL Health vendors in either cash or further EKF ordinary shares. The price per share issued to satisfy any Earnout Payment will be calculated using the average mid-market closing price of EKF’s shares for the five working days immediately preceding the issuance date of such shares. If the share price falls below 60 pence during the earnout period and subject to prior consultation with the vendors in good faith, EKF has the right to satisfy any Earnout Payments using cash only.

[cisk] 31/3/2022 15:55

Wan, no serious investor pays any attention to IC, in fact probably doing the opposite of what they say would probably yield better results!

But it probably mirrors wider market perception.

Regardless - us - the pro-EKF investor group, or the bears (Ton / mkt) will either be proved right or wrong in the fullness of time.

All I know is that if you follow the mkt, you're basically a tracker. As people post on this board, I'm assuming they hope to outperform the market!

[wan] 31/3/2022 11:18

I forgot to add this -

Element Launches the AVITI™ System to Democratize Access to Genomics
MARCH 14, 2022

Element Biosciences Inc., developer of a new and disruptive DNA sequencing platform, today announced the commercial launch of the Element AVITI™ System, a benchtop sequencer offering an unrivaled combination of performance, cost, and flexibility. Element’s proprietary Avidity Sequencing™ chemistries enable exceptional accuracy and cost efficiency that is unmatched by other benchtop systems. The AVITI™ System operates two random access flow cells that enable independent run start flexibility of each flow cell, and the AVITI™ operating software features tunable read throughput control for additional run time flexibility.

The launch of the AVITI™ System is the latest in a series of announcements that have highlighted Element’s key partnerships with established and emerging leaders in the NGS Library Prep and Bioinformatics segments, each of whom demonstrates powerful use cases for the AVITI™ System.

These partners include, in alphabetical order:

Agilent Technologies
Dovetail Genomics
Fabric Genomics
Genoox
Google DeepVariant
Jumpcode Genomics
New England Biolabs (NEB)
QIAGEN
Roche
Sentieon
10x Genomics
Watchmaker Genomics

Element is now accepting orders for the AVITI™ System, with shipments expected to begin in Q2 2022.

Full release -

[wan] 31/3/2022 11:11

I have followed up on part of CEO, Mike Salter's answer to one of my other questions with regard to EKF's customer base etc. As one example (I will look at others) he referred to the fact that EKF had been working with several small companies. One of those companies from the San Diageo area was working on forensic genomics and the plan was to manufacture products and as they grow, EKF would grow too. However, he went on to suggest that the dynamics have changed somewhat as a very large life science company had recently partnered with said small company and are taking on their products for global distribution.

I am reasonably sure the following partnership is what Mike Salter was referring to -

Element Biosciences and Jumpcode Genomics Partner to Validate Jumpcode’s CRISPRclean® Technology on Element’s AVITI™ System for a Broad Set of Genomic Applications
Press
Feb 24, 2022

SAN DIEGO, Calif., Feb 24, 2022 /PRNewswire/– Element Biosciences, Inc., developer of a new and disruptive DNA sequencing platform, today announced a collaboration and co-marketing partnership with Jumpcode Genomics that validates Jumpcode’s CRISPRclean technology on Element’s AVITI System. The partnership has already demonstrated the value of pairing the technologies, promising improved data quality and cost savings across various genomic applications.
Full release -

Another recent Jumpcode announcement -

Jumpcode Genomics Launches CRISPRclean Single Cell RNA Boost Kit

CRISPRclean® technology improves single cell transcriptional profiling, enabling scientists to discover and see signals that were previously obscured by abundant genomic sequences

SAN DIEGO, Calif. – March 29, 2022 – Jumpcode Genomics, a genome technology platform company focused on improving the understanding of human biology, today announced the launch of the CRISPRclean Single Cell RNA Boost Kit. The method leverages Jumpcode’s patented CRISPR-based technology to remove uninformative sequences from libraries, enhancing single cell experiments and enabling scientists to extract greater insights from genomic data. The technology has broad applicability across basic and translational research, clinical applications, infectious disease and oncology.

“As we’ve seen incredible growth in single cell analysis, it’s become evident that RNA sequencing can help fuel the discovery of rare cell types and development of new drug targets. However, historically, there have been many challenges in realizing the full potential of single cell RNA sequencing, including the presence of abundant uninformative transcripts that can mask impactful biological findings,” said Yaron Hakak, Ph.D., CEO of Jumpcode Genomics. “Jumpcode’s new CRISPRclean Single Cell RNA Boost Kit enables unbiased discovery by addressing this needle in a haystack problem, allowing scientists to see signals that have been previously obscured.”
Full release -

This is only one example, and to suggest EKF are heading back to pre-pandemic doldrums, and keeping it polite, is in my view, very wide of the mark!

[wan] 31/3/2022 09:22

Again appearing not to align with managements presentation regarding the prospects and rationale for the significant investment -

EKF heads back to the pre-pandemic doldrums

The diagnostics company intends to redirect the capabilities developed for Covid-19 into other activities

March 29, 2022
By Mark Robinson

Brokers will be reassessing forecasts in view of the chairman’s comments, though it’s fair to assume that headline numbers will pull back appreciably in the current year. There may be reason to think that the shares have been oversold, but we return to hold until details emerge of how EKF plans to redirect new clinical capabilities brought about by the virus. Hold.
Full article -

'Heading back to pre-pandemic Doldrums' implies stagnant growth and appears to be making comparisons to pre-pandemic levels of revenue with the same regard to the growth prospects, which are materially different to pre-pandemic!

In my view, headline numbers will pull back for the reasons highlighted in the Results, but let's be clear, EKF will still be generating revenue and cash materially above pre-pandemic levels as perhaps indicated by Q1 22 being inline with Q1 21, and because COVID testing is reducing not stopping, and also because other testing revenues will be coming on line amongst 'many' others e.g. IBD testing in Q2 2022 and introduction of NIPT testing in March 2022.

Plus, EKF are not the only diagnostic company awash with cash, with much larger diagnostic and healthcare players having enormous amounts of cash looking to be deployed and committed in materially expanding their portfolios. For example, cue the level of interest in EKF 'new' US fermentation facility and subsequently EKF have built a pipeline of 'new' accounts, with CEO, Mike Salter, saying there was limited competition in this highly specialised area, especially with the higher volume capacities EKF have targeted (and no doubt their 'partners' require).

So, I am taking the positive view, that EKF are in a much different place compared to pre-pandemic, and could well deliver above the current low expectations