Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[wan] 19/1/2022 09:19

My "paradigm shift" comment/prediction in a previous post is gathering momentum. Watch this space!

Abbott, BD, Quidel pursue DTC strategies amid 'paradigm shift' for at-home, self-testing

The three test makers said at last week's J.P. Morgan conference they see opportunities for direct-to-consumer, digitally-connected testing for diseases beyond COVID-19.

Published Jan. 18, 2022

Abbott CEO Robert Ford said at last week's J.P. Morgan healthcare conference that the convergence of digital technology and medtech is creating "incredible opportunities to advance healthcare, change healthcare [and] change the way it's delivered."

Ford added that the company is specifically looking to "start to build a more sustainable rapid point-of-care, rapid diagnostic business not only that goes straight to the consumer, but also into other channels outside of the four walls of the hospital."

During Quidel's presentation at the J.P. Morgan conference, CEO Doug Bryant said digital health is "something that we don't talk a great deal about but, nevertheless, we have been spending a great deal of time on it."

Bryant noted that Quidel's integrated digital health and diagnostics products currently are focused on the enterprise and employee health markets. Still, the company is looking for near-term opportunities to expand into the consumer use market beyond COVID-19.

"We have to demonstrate that individuals can collect [specimens] properly and that will be very helpful in clinical trials where we try to demonstrate the sensitivity and specificity necessary to meet the FDA's hurdles for OTC products," the CEO said. "That's very much on the forefront of our minds and is something we're working on."

The goal is to empower consumers to take charge of their own health and wellness by decentralizing testing through investment in digital health, according to Bryant. Quidel is developing a self-test module for cell phones, called QVue, to report results in near real-time.

"A paradigm shift has occurred from the public," Bryant said "Now, with COVID, it has changed the way people think [about self-testing]."

Full story -

[wan] 19/1/2022 08:40

Pldazzle...Ultimately, I wouldn't know whether such reagents referred to are manufactured by EKF, or more to the point could be manufactured, or indeed whether on their own (relatively low volume?) such reagents would be of any interest.

Importantly though, what it does highlight, is that having a reliable supply chain 'partner' like EKF, is paramount. In this regard, the implementation of EKF's growth plan and indeed the acquisition of ADL, has added further to that attraction in my view.

[pldazzle] 18/1/2022 19:58

wan and other experts ... a question for you. Apart from EKF I also hold shares in AGL, which last week gave the following update on (inter alia) a major ovarian cancer study involving two of the company's platforms and for which [positive] results had been hoped for in H2/21:

"... While good progress has been made in many areas of the ovarian cancer study, there have been some third-party supply chain difficulties attributed to COVID-19. A key supplier has been unable to deliver certain reagents as scheduled. Completion of the study sample analysis depends on these reagents and the situation is being closely managed. Consequently, headline results for the study are now expected in H1 2022."

Is there any reason to suppose there might be anything of direct or indirect interest in this for EKF, either before or after today's announcement?

[cambridgedon] 18/1/2022 15:48

Ton/Crazy,
Good to have the debate since it crops up here regularly.
CD

[tongosti] 18/1/2022 11:59

Thanks Cambridge - good points. You still leave out a third possibility though (as in your first scenario may not go far enough). Forgive me for insisting in that I think I did answer the question. Let me try another angle. You say lots of good news have failed to move the market since 80p level. On the face of it it looks indeed so. However, another key lesson of history is that when markets fail to react to seemingly bullish/bearish news then the odds are quite high the market is about to turn bearish/bullish. We get this "unintuitive" market behaviour the whole time (example - markets starting to rally strongly in April 2020 at the very start of covid fears with 99% of market participants not trusting it for MONTHS until it became obvious to everyone) as markets never top/bottom on bad/good news but quite the reverse. This kind of behaviour is a key property of financial markets. If so, then one should be afraid of a major leg south for ekf shares (a third possibility you have left out). Will it happen, I hear you say? No one knows at this stage as the market is being range bound but one best prepare for all eventualities.As far as I am concerned, I am prepared to go long or short depending on market's next move. Flexibility is the name of the game - all I have to do is patiently wait for odds stacking in one's favour (up or down). Have learned ago never to have ego in this game and alway be keen to bend with the market. Whichever way one cuts it, money can only be made by being in sync with the market. Been long and short ekf several times over the last two years (my last one being a failed long truth be told). In my view, all fundamental reasoning in the world is not worth the paper it is written on unless the market validates it. If he does, I will be the first to review my skepticism and go long (again).

[crazycoops] 18/1/2022 11:25

I'm afraid that argument cambridgedon is based on price anchoring. I'm long here but all the highly rated growth shares in my portfolio and watchlist have been derated over the past few months. Try being a shareholder in GAW for example! At some point sentiment will shift back in favour of long dated investments such as growth stocks but for now, the market is more interested in value plays. Simple as that I think.

[cambridgedon] 18/1/2022 11:01

Tongosti,

I have no problem with most of that: however, it doesn't completely answer the question. The market valued EKF at over 80p back in September last year. Since then lots of good things have been announced and testing (thought by many to be a flash in the pan) shows no signs of falling off anytime soon.
So, we are left with only two conclusions: 1) the price got well ahead of itself last year or 2)It's undervalued now.
Which is it?
CD

[tongosti] 18/1/2022 10:15

CambridgeIn one sentence: it is all in the price. I have been making this point since late Oct/early Nov 2020 as one's job (if we want to make money of course) is to get in sync with Mr Market not to play macho with him (deep down everyone knows who loses that game). A key lesson of history is that markets proceed fundamentals (Paul Tudor Jones has elaborated much better than I can on this one) not the other way around. If you really think about it, this one is one of the key reasons why 99% find this game so difficult to crack. It also explains why Wan has been waiting for a very long time to will the market (into submission on back of his never changing thesis) and it is too late for him to change his mind now (this is where ego plays against one - after all who likes to be wrong?) Been doing this for a good while and in my opinion there are only two catalysts that move shares: a. meaningful fundamental surprises (strictly defined as those that are accompanied by "immediate and meaningful" price moves ONLY not what random people think such a surprise are) and b.major shifts in market perceptions (watch out when every single board member is bullish / bearish - in such circumstances it doesn't take much for inflection points to introduce themselves which also quickly help shifting perceptions the other way. George Soros termed the above as reflexivity in that price alone contains a lot of fundamental information which goes unnoticed by most market participants.

[wan] 18/1/2022 09:26

I also note Sourcebio's Trading Update today reporting excellent growth and that their full year results will be significantly ahead of market expectations, and that their core divisions are all now back to pre-Covid levels of trading and all are poised to accelerate their growth.

Which also aligns with other diagnostic players recently reporting/guiding that their core businesses are back to pre-Covid levels of trading (and above) and are also poised to further accelerate growth.

[cambridgedon] 18/1/2022 09:24

Tongosti,
Why do YOU think Mr M (to use your preferred idiom) isn't convinced EKF is worth more?
CD

[tongosti] 18/1/2022 09:16

Good for you - for all your inflexibility and excitement, the market is not voting in favour of your thesis. Quite funny you never ask the question why. Conviction is the enemy of truth - flexibility sets one free in this (very counterintuitive and) hyper competitive game.

[wan] 18/1/2022 07:54

I am excited by todays news regarding EKF's strategic partnership agreement with Yourgene Health plc. With additional tests already being indicated for deployment within the largest healthcare market in the world, I believe that we are witnessing the early stages of what will become a major platform for expansion and growth.

In my view, EKF is likely, in one form or another, to also include expansion into the direct-to-consumer sample collection and testing market (beyond the existing COVID-19 sample collection and testing). The growth opportunity on offer will align with my previous comment (and indeed that of Quidel's CEO, Douglas Bryant) regarding a new era of diagnostics, where people are empowered to understand their own health in the comfort and privacy of their homes, and is likely to represent a paradigm shift, in turn offering a very large global growth opportunity for non-COVID related products.

[faz] 18/1/2022 07:31

Today'a announcement illustrates the strategy of acquiring ADL delivering results

[shanklin] 14/1/2022 13:14

Thank you wan

Last year the EoY TS was on 12-Jan. I do like it when companies either pre-announce the timing of their TSs or at least manage a bit of consistency on their timing. In that context, hopefully we will see it next week.

[wan] 14/1/2022 11:15

Shanklin...EKF has already guided in the Half Year Report that the Board is very confident that trading for the year ending 31 December 2021 will be comfortably ahead of already materially upgraded management expectations. So, I don't see any reasons to expect anything other than the outperformance for the year being realised.

We usually get a Trading Update in January for the Year End 31st Dec, which may also include an indication regarding the 1st quarter outlook.

Given that testing demand has been reported elsewhere as being very strong (unfortunately), it bodes well for both the final and first quarters in my view.

[tongosti] 14/1/2022 09:35

Wan - while you're at it (and since share price has been totally out of sync with your views for a long time) any idea how long before physicists fully understand the strange world of quantum physics?

[shanklin] 14/1/2022 09:03

wan

Any idea on when we will get an EKF TS please?

TIA, Martin

[wan] 14/1/2022 08:25

Overall, large US diagnostic companies have been reporting/guiding that their core businesses have fully recovered and are delivering mid to high double digit 'non-COVID' related growth, and better than previously guided revenue growth overall, driven by 'both' the strong performance of their core businesses and from strong demand for COVID-19 testing, also confirming that the strong demand has continued into January (with omicron driving U.S. cases to record highs). There was also an expectation of a decline in COVID-19 testing volumes in 2022 versus 2021, but also that testing for the virus would become a permanent part of diagnostic portfolios (it is perhaps notable though that 2021 and current testing volumes are beating previous guidance).

With regard to EKF and COVID-19 testing, they are supplying multiple clients with multiple products relating to COVID-19, and clearly COVID-19 is not going to disappear. Plus, some of those products will also be relevant to testing/diagnosing other diseases e.g. flu and TB to name but two and will include veterinary uses too. Put another way, serving multiple customers, across different disease states (and markets), could result in demand for related testing products staying elevated, resulting in good rates of growth. In this regard, it sits well with my comment above highlighting that EKF has already stated that they are experiencing increasing demand for kit manufacturing and that it represents a substantial growth opportunity, and are thus implementing expansion plans for their kitting capabilities in contract manufacturing for existing diagnostics companies in USA, UK and Germany.

Staying on that theme, one comment that particularly caught my eye yesterday, as it aligns with my other comment above (in post 2463) regarding a paradigm shift in consumer testing, was from Quidel's CEO, Douglas Bryant, during the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (Quidel's market cap $5 Billion, plus Quidel is also proposing a $6 billion acquisition of Ortho Clinical Diagnostics) -

For diagnostics overall, Bryant said a paradigm shift has occurred in the public. "The average individual has five respiratory infections, I'm told, and for the most part the public never previously thought about being tested," he said. "COVID has changed the way people think, and if they don't have COVID they want to know what they have," Bryant added.

[tongosti] 04/1/2022 20:23

Good for you pal - hope you get better luck in 2022.

[wan] 04/1/2022 10:49

Tongosti...I typed up the following thoughts/view over the Christmas/New Year break, so it is not in direct response to your question. However, it perhaps answers your question in terms of where I am leaning and why (based on a lot of research).

In my view, on the one hand we need to look beyond the direct results of the pandemic induced testing surge (but don't discount it going away anytime soon). On the other hand, we need to realise that there is not much doubt that the effects of the pandemic have put diagnostics firmly in the spotlight in terms of needing to have the available capacity, being vital in terms of a country's individual pandemic response, and also critical from a global response and preparedness perspective. And overall, elevating the critical importance of the industry as a whole.

But perhaps more importantly, the pandemic has ushered in a new era for direct-to-consumer diagnostics, where even young children are familiar with sample collection and at-home-testing! This new era, a world where people are empowered to understand their own health in the comfort and privacy of their homes, is likely to represent a paradigm shift, in turn offering a very large global growth opportunity for non-COVID related products (including pandemic preparedness).

EKF has already highlighted that they are experiencing increasing demand for kit manufacturing and that it represents a substantial growth opportunity, and are thus implementing expansion plans for their kitting capabilities in contract manufacturing for existing diagnostics companies in USA, UK and Germany.

There is of course much more to EKF's 2021 – 2024 Growth Strategy than addressing the direct-to-consumer, sample-collect/at-home-testing growth opportunity in isolation, but in my view, for the patient investor, the consumer health testing opportunity looks set to deliver substantial long-term growth that will enhance the combined effects from EKF's Growth Strategy (potentially beyond the current guidance).

Yes, there is some execution and delay risk, but we are starting from a very strong, solid base in terms of the underlying company and the existing and expanded 'core' business which generates significant cash flows and substantial cash balances. Along with the fact that the management, and indeed their employees, having a proven track record of reliable delivery (to customers and investors), demonstrating a combination of insightfulness, dedication, and being both responsive and nimble.

Being conservative, I am therefore hopeful for a year of at least further solid progress and expansion across a number of non-COVID related fronts, including the further expansion of the existing 'core' business, and potentially new known/unknown fronts.

Wishing 'all' readers, a happy, 'healthy', and prosperous 2022!

[tongosti] 04/1/2022 09:25

Happy NY Wan - do you think Mr Market will finally catch up with your thesis this year and if so, why?

[tongosti] 30/12/2021 19:20

Fair to say this year is toast despite our very own gm's wild prediction? Let's stretch it out by another year shall we?!

[tongosti] 24/12/2021 12:58

Another uneventful year for this company's shares. It should and it would (according to the same old broken record) but it doesn't. Lol. Merry Xmas to the sensible ones!

[tongosti] 22/12/2021 14:49

When was the last time the barber tells one you don't need a haircut?

[brummy_git] 22/12/2021 11:19

Christopher Mills talks positively about EKF (59:55) here.

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6879354290515841026/

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG7_82WZdmc&t=2135s