Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 13/12/2024 12:28

What has become apparent again today is gross manipulation of the share price. 400,000 buy trades v 1bot trade of £25 and the share price drops 4 per cent!

[earwacks] 12/12/2024 10:24

Now it drops 3.2 percent on the sale of two shares! One could say there is gross market manipulation, but who cares? Certainly not the regulators. Someone has bought 2k shares over 25.5p not enough to redress the 48 p trade!

[wan] 11/12/2024 16:27

It will be interesting to see if the current improvement in the share price proves to be, eventually, a turning point in terms of a long-term upward trend...only more time will tell!

[earwacks] 11/12/2024 15:57

A 1 million trade worked through the system today. Maybe that’s been the blockage as the share price back over 25p. Has been disappointing. Good interview with JB at Renx on Vox. Hopefully no more dilution there. share price not reacted that much but then the directors purchases have looked a bit token. Fingers crossed their diagnostics is selling very strongly according to Julian and should be welcomed by the incoming government

[hopeful holder] 10/12/2024 09:22

Now would be a great time for the Directors to buy a shed load and show the market there is value to be had here....I have a view that back to 30p is the short term goal and 35p min.If they get things all lined up, 45p upwards in 12 months I don't think is a stretch.. although right now it looks it.

[hopeful holder] 04/12/2024 19:12

It's certainly looking ripe for a hostile bid right now isn't it. My own view... too many delays and poor management in the past are all drags on the share price.Again, whilst we see potential, the market wants to see the money.. as do I..

[wan] 04/12/2024 16:12

That last flurry of sells reduced EKF's shares to a price to sales ratio of barely 2, compared to notably higher multiples in the sectors that EKF operates in. And under 2 if the broker forecast for 2025 is anywhere near correct.

A 40% bid at these prices would still only value EKF at well under 3 x, compared to higher average multiples in the diagnostics/healthcare sector etc, and again if the broker forecast is anywhere near correct!

One assumes that the market knows something that we currently don't!

[wan] 04/12/2024 14:48

Smithie...What don't you understand about the post, particularly if you only considered the last two paragraphs? And especially if you follow and read the EKF link, but in short, BHB testing could become a materially larger market! -

Aside from the potential for therapeutics related to BHB: it has been identified in the above, and elsewhere, that there is a clear connection between ketosis and clearance of AD plaque, and indeed other benefits reported elsewhere related to the state of ketosis.

So, in my view there is likely to be a requirement for monitoring ketosis (including during clinical trials). EKF is well placed as they are already providing and addressing the need for the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with ketosis (and a potential future version currently in feasibility work-up).

[hopeful holder] 04/12/2024 14:24

The half year report (September) showed marginal improvement and a cautious "in line" declaration.One trigger would be a "substantially in front of expectations " but the life sciences progress is steady (in my mind) not spectacular.On a plus side, higher gross profit from a slightly lower turnover can't be that bad and does bode well, indicating an eye to the numbers is evident.This is one of my bigger holdings. Had it not have been so big, I would have picked up more at this 25p level with an eye for a quick 20% profit.

[smithie6] 04/12/2024 13:58

....my opinion about posting on this thread ? (& this thread might affect in estor interest in EKF shares)

...same as before

that lots of tech blah blah means nothing to 99.5% of readers of this thread

& probably scares away 99.5% of possible PI share buyers because after reading technical info in posts they realise that they know absolutely nothing about the sector & hence it us best that they do not invest.

here s an example
"....proteostasis is a hallmark of aging and Alzheimer disease (AD). We identify β-hydroxybutyrate (βHB), a ketone body...

and

"Highlights

•βHB regulates protein solubility and is selective for a misfolding structural state

•βHB-induced insolubility is not dependent on covalent modification, pH, or solute load

•Protein targets of βHB include neurodegeneration-related proteins such as amyloid-β

•βHB effects are observable in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo in nematode and mouse models"

Unless one has a degree or PHD in this sector I dont think any other PI can understand such text.

[p1nkfish] 04/12/2024 10:50

Only increased real business level will gain attention.
Market in "show me" frame of mind.

[wan] 04/12/2024 10:34

Maybe, but if EKF stated there was interest from a pharmacological perspective, including a new source of testing, then that alone would likely have some effect.

In the meantime, the share price appears suppressed.

[hopeful holder] 04/12/2024 09:48

All great but need to be monetised before mr market will start to rerate EKF.

[wan] 04/12/2024 09:29

Reporting on important work in Cell Chemical Biology - "Together, these data provide foundational evidence for a novel mechanistic component of ketone body biology."

December 02, 2024
β-hydroxybutyrate is a metabolic regulator of proteostasis in the aged and Alzheimer disease brain

Highlights

•βHB regulates protein solubility and is selective for a misfolding structural state

•βHB-induced insolubility is not dependent on covalent modification, pH, or solute load

•Protein targets of βHB include neurodegeneration-related proteins such as amyloid-β

•βHB effects are observable in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo in nematode and mouse models

Summary
Loss of proteostasis is a hallmark of aging and Alzheimer disease (AD). We identify β-hydroxybutyrate (βHB), a ketone body, as a regulator of protein solubility. βHB primarily provides ATP substrate during periods of reduced glucose availability, and regulates other cellular processes through protein interactions. We demonstrate βHB-induced protein insolubility is not dependent on covalent protein modification, pH, or solute load, and is observable in mouse brain in vivo after delivery of a ketone ester. This mechanism is selective for pathological proteins such as amyloid-β, and exogenous βHB ameliorates pathology in nematode models of amyloid-β aggregation toxicity. We generate libraries of the βHB-induced protein insolublome using mass spectrometry proteomics, and identify common protein domains and upstream regulators. We show enrichment of neurodegeneration-related proteins among βHB targets and the clearance of these targets from mouse brain. These data indicate a metabolically regulated mechanism of proteostasis relevant to aging and AD.



Aside from the potential for therapeutics related to BHB: it has been identified in the above, and elsewhere, that there is a clear connection between ketosis and clearance of AD plaque, and indeed other benefits reported elsewhere related to the state of ketosis.

So, in my view there is likely to be a requirement for monitoring ketosis (including during clinical trials). EKF is well placed as they are already providing and addressing the need for the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with ketosis (and a potential future version currently in feasibility work-up).

[hopeful holder] 03/12/2024 13:43

A couple of decent contract awards of a seizable amount would be most welcome. These facilities have been delayed and delayed, now it's time for them to really show their worth to shareholders and I see this as a serious relating event should it come to fruition.. (or when).The important part of all this is that EKF appear to be (now) run much better and this is needed.I'm looking forwards to the day when either half yearly or full year results show a huge uptick in profits / eps and my patience is rewarded. But, a lot of other opportunities out there to invest in. In share numbers, this is a big holding for me and the long wait to monetisation of fermenting I hope makes the impact or should. I'm embarrassed to say I don't have a handle on the potential extra turnover / profit the facilities would add if running at say half capacity or even full capacity as not enough data around to make any calculations reasonable.

[wan] 03/12/2024 10:45

I agree that the share price indicates a lack of positivity in the market, and that currently, there is nothing factored into the share price for improved growth prospects (some would argue justifiably). But given the guidance to date, is it also a case of no news is, sort of, good news? Time will tell!

Obviously, progress and confirmation in 2025 is going to be pivotal, and my previous points was that the market clearly wants confirmation/clear evidence, hence my comments regarding the type of catalysts required for a rerating.

And even though there is evidence (see further below) that EKF are addressing important markets with excellent growth prospects e.g. leading position in B-HB production, and not least their development of a 'dual' glucose/BHB test which is presumably a 'single/dual' test strip and separate reader, where to my mind there could be two potential applications - ip around the dual-analyte strip i.e. can that technology/application be utilised in a wearable sensor? And obviously the reader for rapid point of care testing (which may, in addition, potentially address the sports/nutrition market).

And perhaps overlooked, and again to my mind at least, this aspect (test development/and hopefully a positive update) should further improve the already strong relationships with the likes of Thermo Fisher, Cardinal Health, and Quidelortho in the 'existing' BHB business, and indeed beyond.

Staying with Thermo: I note that a competitor (of sorts!) BHB reader product and the related strips have been discontinued by the Fisher Scientific Chanel, but importantly they direct you to an alternative product: EKF's Blood Glucose β-Ketone Strips @ $315 for a pack of 50 -

One assumes that that will also be aided by the "significantly increased β-HB fermentation yield".

JB stated that they will have feasibility completed on their new glucose/BHB test by Christmas, let's hope we get a positive update in early 2025 in that regard, and hopefully more (they have missed before with regard to test in development).

[hopeful holder] 02/12/2024 15:43

Some very good points on potential for the business but the market is a cautious thing. Investors have had to wait for rewards and many will be underwater, that makes for tough times and the recent retreat down to 25 pence or so doesn't evidence any positivity in the market towards EKF.Add that Trump has appointed an anti Baxter, our task to make headway has yet another difficulty.Yet the potential is huge.... But I think us investors are weary and need some real tangible outputs in sales growth and contracts before this will fly.... But, when it does, I think a 50% plus rise is quite achievable in a very short space of time...Let's see..

[wan] 24/11/2024 10:04

To add to the above post: Numerous studies has already demonstrated that beta-hydroxybutyrate(B-HB) and/or derivatives of are safe and well-tolerated in humans.

From a nutritional perspective, including within performance inducing products and beverages, adding an ingredient such as B-HB requires FDA approval -

A substance that will be added to food is subject to premarket approval by FDA unless it is generally recognized, among qualified experts, to be safe under the conditions of its intended use (GRAS is the acronym for generally recognized as safe).(source FDA)

Of note, in June 2022 a large Japanese company received approval for adding B-HB to sports and nutritional beverages, bars, and gels.

My main thrust is that there is a large and growing market for nutritional B-HB. North America is the leading market, with the following providing food for thought -

Beta Hydroxybutyrate (BHB) Salts Market Outlook
The global market size of Beta Hydroxybutyrate (BHB) salts was valued at USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 6.1 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% during the forecast period. This impressive growth is primarily driven by the rising awareness regarding ketogenic diets, increasing demand for nutritional supplements, and the expanding fitness and sports nutrition industry.

From a regional perspective, North America currently holds the largest share of the BHB salts market, driven by the high prevalence of obesity, the popularity of ketogenic diets, and the well-established sports nutrition industry in the region. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period, owing to the increasing awareness about health and fitness, rising disposable incomes, and the growing popularity of nutritional supplements in countries like China and India. Europe and Latin America are also expected to contribute significantly to market growth, driven by similar trends in health and fitness awareness.


Other market reports put the current B-HB market at significantly higher valuations than the above report, but with similar rates of growth over the forecast periods. In short, it's a growth market!

Therapeutic use of B-HB is receiving a lot of attention, including in clinical trial use, with B-HB well tolerated, and with very good effects and potential being demonstrated.

[wan] 23/11/2024 10:08

Here is another that I believe could have a material impact -

Beyond beta-hydroxybutyrate B-HB testing, which is already a large and growing market for EKF: The therapeutic and nutritional potential of beta-hydroxybutyrate remains relatively untapped. Entering/addressing these markets could materially change the dynamics in my view (including potentially positively impacting EKF's existing B-HB testing business, including new B-HB near patient testing).

Interestingly, EKF has confirmed that they have the production know-how and expertise, and the capacity, to materially increase the production of B-HB.

When I asked whether EKF had considered the nutritional market for B-HB (during the FY23 Presentation), JB said they had never been asked that question, but it was certainly worth considering/looking into.

[wan] 22/11/2024 09:47

Clearly there are sellers of EFK shares.

However, I personally don't think there is anything wrong fundamentally, aside from the obvious selling pressure which appears to be more about sentiment and factors affecting the market as a whole, as opposed to EKF's prospects (unless I am missing something!).

Important questions are: where could the catalysts come from?

And will any catalysts change sellers perspectives, or just delay their intentions (merely taking advantage of an improved price/demand)?

Clearly there is an overhang, so one catalyst could be when the seller/s are finished, and/or demand outweighs the seller (clearly buyers appear to ultimately need more than just EKF appears cheap!).

EKF is cash generative, so one potential catalyst would be the reinstatement of a dividend policy, which without much doubt would be well received, especially given the stickiness of inflation and the prospect of interest rates remaining higher than envisaged.

Currently, there is nothing factored into the share price for improved growth prospects, so a confirmation that growth is being both delivered and forecasted would, on its own, be well received. And even better if that was backed up with an emerging or reinstated dividend policy!

On a question as to the correct strategy being in place at South Bend, JB stated that he was personally tired with saying we haven't delivered on what we should have from South Bend, but countered that the South Bend business hasn't seen any downside and that the business was very strong with considerable upside going forwards.

However, given that South Bend has underwhelmed to date, the market is not rewarding anything for the potential, which is fair enough......but may change if the potential and considerable upside actually starts being delivered and realised! A positive update in this regard would, at the very least, also improve sentiment.

Additional enzymes that are held in EKF storage, along with EKF's existing enzymes and IP, could apparently deliver a new EKF glucose/BHB test. Management has stated that the new test will be very complimentary to EKF's established lab-based BHB testing, and also stated that EKF will have feasibility completed on their new glucose/BHB test by Christmas. I believe that a positive update in this regard would also be well received, but would need something beyond "we think this works" etc to effectively move the needle, such as a technology breakthrough/accelerated development due to significant interest from larger players (authorisation aside, but the potential for the Trump administration expediting the authorisation process).

There is more to add to the list, so please feel free to add potential, realistic upside or downside catalysts.

[earwacks] 21/11/2024 11:07

Wan . I think Julian would be put off the Nasdaq from his experience with RenX. Basically because the value dropped with the fall out from placings and failed bid for the company. It can be ruinously expensive. So although they got booted off the Nasdaq they are still listed in a junior version. In The Renx case their product is exclusively to be sold in the US. Not sure what the global sales mix is with EKF. Harwood (large holders in both)seem to think that if they could get the enzyme business off the ground they will get bought by an American company anyway. If business has recovered sufficiently in diagnostic position as everyone keeps saying, they should show the confidence by reinstating the dividend. In this market and the current state of the world I can’t really understand investors selling up here, because news tends to come out of the blue at any time. I’ve been tempted to sell every time we get back in the 30p range, but have resisted for this very reason , because a successful offer could and should be multiples of this share price with an enzyme product which they have invested heavily in. I think that is the problem, how long this is taking

[wan] 21/11/2024 10:28

I did ask the question as to whether there was any intention to list in the US, and JB said that in his opinion, AIM was the right market for EKF.

Arguably, the current share price performance implies otherwise!

With investor patience running thin (judging by some comments on here and the share price), it will be interesting to see how that opinion pans out, and importantly where/if any catalysts for a rerating might emerge from.

Fwiw, I believe there are several areas where catalysts could potentially emerge from.
Time will tell!

[cumnor] 21/11/2024 09:32

Interesting, Wan. Nice to see EKF being mentioned as a major player as diagnostics companies, many of which are a hundred times it's mrkt cap. London, of course, is the wrong place for EKF to be listed. Let's hope mgmt see the light and move Stateside, esp with this anti business government in power.