Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[btgman] 24/11/2020 22:22

So the Royal Mail has won the moon shot postal testing contract. Does anyone have any thoughts as to which type of kits they will be collecting. AIMHO GLA BTG

[speedsgh] 24/11/2020 15:37

#EKF in third place... New Update: Fund managers' favourite UK smaller companies - HTTPS://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2020/11/18/fund-managers-favourite-uk-smaller-companies-shares/ Our fund managers’ best ideas tables constitute the top five holdings of a selection of top performing funds, or the three most overweight positions. The data is based on the funds’ most recent portfolio disclosures to Morningstar. Download table - HTTPS://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/download/182080/4581928

[mirandaj] 24/11/2020 14:15

EKF on report lists going forward https://cheshire.media/uncategorised/101780/biochemistry-analyzing-systems-market-global-forecast-over-2026-roche-mindray-medical-siemens-healthcare-horiba-medical-ekf-diagnostics/

[wan] 24/11/2020 08:14

And I am not taking my eye off of testing, which is expanding everywhere I look! Including Grant Shapps announcing/confirming rapid testing to enable travel and the PM announcing the launch of a major community testing programme, offering all local authorities in tier 3 areas in England a six week surge of testing.

[wan] 24/11/2020 07:56

Nov 16, 2020,10:57am EST Where Telehealth Is Headed In 2021 But while the spotlight on telehealth has been mainly related to its usefulness for infectious diseases, there are many other developments occurring in the industry that are on track to revolutionize the way many of us seek care. Here’s a look at where telehealth is going in 2021. Care management for chronic disease In the earliest days of the pandemic, many patients with chronic or ongoing health issues delayed care due to concerns over catching Covid-19 or the reduced availability of health services due to an overflow of coronavirus patients in their area. Now that hospitals and medical offices know better how to treat those coronavirus patients, non-emergent and ongoing care for chronic diseases like lupus, autoimmune disease, and age-related diseases is picking up once again. Full story - hTTps://www.forbes.com/sites/shamahyder/2020/11/16/where-telehealth-is-headed-in-2021/

[wan] 24/11/2020 07:54

Nov 2, 2020,09:20am EST It’s Time To Go All In On Telehealth The COVID-19 pandemic catapulted telemedicine from an underused, value-added offering in employee benefits plans into the safest, most secure and sometimes only means of accessing health care. Now, as businesses move to reopen, employers need to resist reverting to the traditional brick-and-mortar health care model — and its escalating costs. Instead, companies large and small should lean into telehealth as a way to support employee wellness and productivity, reduce absenteeism and protect the bottom line. “While employers have been implementing more virtual solutions in recent years, the pandemic caused the pace to accelerate at an astronomical rate,” said Ellen Kelsay, president and CEO of the organization, which advocates for large employers in health care policy. “Virtual care is now garnering growing interest and receptivity from both employees and providers who increasingly see its benefit.” 5. Embrace the future of e-health. Some large employers are exploring primary care models that replace fee-for-service, encounter-based care with a more comprehensive, patient-centered health management approach. Look for a provider that goes beyond the discrete virtual visit to deliver e-wellness and disease management programs. These programs should include efforts to regularly connect with employees via email and text messages to promote positive behavior changes and treatment adherence. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the once-niche telemedicine industry into the mainstream, creating a potentially lasting shift in health care. Companies have responded but will need to be even more creative, nimble and open in managing employee benefits. And CTOs will be at the center of this mix as health care offerings move rapidly to the next level. Full story - hTTps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2020/11/02/its-time-to-go-all-in-on-telehealth/?sh=2d28ff2511d7

[wan] 24/11/2020 07:44

As I said further above, telehealth/digital health is a hot sector, not least spurred on by the pandemic. However, many experts have concluded that telehealth/digital health is here to stay and is likely to experience continued growth. Hence, I am very much looking forward to my exposure to this sector! Dividend yield potentially looking very healthy at these levels ;-)

[rivaldo] 24/11/2020 07:09

Great to see Trellus advancing nicely, with the IPO set for next year and the in-specie dividend to shareholders about to happen. Anyone who wants in on the IPO had better buy in here soon :o)) Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/ekf-diagnostics-EKF/share-news/EKF-Diagnostics-Holdings-PLC-Update-on-strategic-i/83749709

[tongosti] 23/11/2020 19:57

If you know about it, Mr Market knows about it as well. In other words, it has been fully discounted and that piece of info is already in the price. Markets move on rumours and stall (or worse) on news - sure as day have read it somewhere.

[wan] 23/11/2020 16:22

Maybe Jack, but don't discount news on orders for antibody testing and antigen testing (new PrimeStore ATM), neither have specifically featured yet in terms of orders.

[jacks13] 23/11/2020 15:28

Markets have changed wan in the past twenty years or so. With the advent of internet dealing and the emergence of spread betting there is a stronger bias towards trading. Even those who style themselves as investors now trade in and out of positions with ease. This didn't happen when dealing for PIs was exclusively by telephone or a visit to the local bank, market information was via teletext or newspaper and dealing costs were eye-wateringly expensive. We can't rule out further news announcements, but for the time being the next big announcement seems likely to be the preliminary year-end results around late March or early April. So little wonder that the share price has gone a little cold. For now at least.

[wan] 23/11/2020 15:03

Thanks Jack, that's quite similar to my workings/findings. It perhaps indicates why the CEO(having inside knowledge of growth prospects/orders, any likely effect from vaccine authorisation, as well as the strength in rebound/growth in the core business) thought the pullback was well overdone. Not to mention that Chris Mills thinks there is nothing in the current rating for Trellus (or the Mount Sinai partnership), nor indeed PrimeStore, which has quite a lot of potential beyond its Covid-19 limelight. Anyway, it gives us a hint that the next push onwards might not meet much resistance if growth can be maintained. However, it appears the market wants more supporting information before advancing back towards the all-time high, or through it if growth is again revised up (cue antigen testing?).

[jacks13] 23/11/2020 14:12

Assuming a Dec 2020 ebitda of £24.4m and at today’s enterprise value of approximately £275m we get a current multiple of 11.3 ev/ebitda. That is based on today’s share price and assumes the cash and debt positions to be the same as they were at end-Dec 2019. Today’s share price is approximately 62.5p, so assuming the market awards an uplift to a new ev/ebitda multiple of say 14.7 this would imply a revised share price in the order of 80p I think that a 14.7 ev/ebitda multiple is a modest target and could be exceeded on the back of the projected 3.5p eps forecasts. An 80p share price would imply a p/e ratio of 23, again not an exacting target in the circumstances. But to answer your question wan and from the quick research I’ve done today the medical equipment sub-sector appears to trade on an ev/ebitda multiple typically in the range 11 to 15 times. I don’t believe your above projections to be overly optimistic and probably understate the share's potential.

[wan] 23/11/2020 13:51

Adding to my post above, obviously Chris Mills thinks EV/EBITDA multiples are particularly relevant/useful (he quoted the multiples achieved in a recent exit). obviously I subtracted £30m of cash, which one assumes could be used for capital investment (not to mention there's not much by way of long term debt). I assume by the following that private Equity also use EV/EBITDA - Coronavirus boosts M&A activity in the healthtech sector, says Hampleton Partners 08/10/2020 The first Healthtech M&A market report to be published by Hampleton Partners since the outbreak of Covid-19 stresses the serious impact of coronavirus on healthcare systems around the world. Healthtech valuations have been high for the best part of the past five years. In the first half of 2020, the trailing 30-month median EV/S multiple dipped slightly to 3x following a 4x peak in 2H2019. Despite previous volatility, EBITDA multiples are still very high, coming in at 17.7x in the first half of 2020. This growth has been driven particularly by high valuations in the Healthcare Vertical Software segment which saw 88 deals closed in the first half of the year – a 20 per cent increase on the last reporting period. hTTps://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/2020/10/08/290627/coronavirus-boosts-ma-activity-healthtech-sector-says-hampleton-partners Food for thought...I am not suggesting we should use a multiple of 17.7 (at this stage), but that would equate to a share price of circa 95p. Tone it down for example to what Chris Mills suggested was a moderate multiple of 15 and that would give a share price of circa 80P, which is close to where we were before the pullback. Ultimately though, no doubt reliant upon what EKF says next!

[tongosti] 23/11/2020 13:29

EBITDA is one the most useless metrics out there is and has historically been employed to justify eye watering valuations. Those who use it should instead ask themselves the question: who pays for capital investments - the tooth fairy?

[wan] 23/11/2020 10:50

Has anyone had any thoughts regarding EKF's forecast adjusted EBITDA of £23m (Welshborderer posted that N+1 Singer upgrade their FY20 EBITDA forecasts by a further 6% to £24.4m) and what the average EV/EBITDA multiples are in healthcare/diagnostics etc? By my quick calculations EKF are currently sitting on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of circa 11 (if I use £23m) and circa 10 (if I use 24.4m). Neither of which includes anything for Trellus Health (digital-health/telehealth is a hot sector and I subtracted cash of circa £30m). Perhaps that's why the CEO thought the degree of pullback was ludicrous? Chris Mills stated in the recent interview (as well as mentioning EKF had cash of around £30m) that Source Bio (SBI) was easily worth a multiple of 15. (I have seen examples of lower and particularly higher multiples). I note SBI's share price is significantly up from its IPO price (and up notably post the interview), does anyone know what's the current EV/EBITDA multiple for Source Bio? Others comments/analysis would be most welcomed.

[tongosti] 23/11/2020 08:35

V poor relative strength relative to wider markets. A potentially good tip off from Mr Market. Still out but keen to jump on the short side at the first available opportunity.The path of least resistance is very likely down with odds favouring a fresh leg South. Patience is the name of the game.

[wan] 21/11/2020 10:26

The following FT article provides reason to think we are indeed on the right track regarding the wider healthcare/diagnostic picture, overall, as providing a very supportive, if not compelling backdrop - Opinion The Long View Bullish mood across markets leaves investors with a dilemma Healthcare could be one option in search for sectors with capacity to expand during 2020s MICHAEL MACKENZIE But investors should think hard about what kind of companies and sectors have capacity for expanding during the 2020s. UBS Global Wealth Management advocates looking at fintech and greentech with the global rollout of 5G technology boosting the growth of robotics, autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, data analytics and cyber security. It also points to healthcare. UBS estimates that the global population aged above 65 will expand “60 per cent to 1bn by 2030”. This will require more spending on healthcare and related technology. “Unlike tech, the healthcare sector rally is being driven by profits, not by a valuation uplift,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research. “The long-term valuation stars for healthcare are looking attractive.” Among the 20 main Euro Stoxx 600 groups, healthcare tops the charts with a 15.6 per cent share. In the US, the sector tops the scale among US small-caps in the Russell 2000 index at almost one-fifth, while the S&P 500 weighting has been stuck around 14 per cent in recent years. If healthcare expands further from here, then it might in itself help share markets beat the current lowball estimates of future returns. Full story - hTTps://www.ft.com/content/8c8cae12-f92b-4689-92d2-637567df52f9 And thus the 'long term' approach/rationale with EKF could provide investors with very healthy returns (doing well while doing good). With 'other' healthcare spin-offs, via the Mount Sinai partnership, adding further to the rationale (especially if you kept/keep the in-specie shares!).

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 19:09

Glad to see you finally got it ... that I trade. Good heavens!

[wan] 20/11/2020 17:03

The difference....we now know you trade, and you can post as much as you like, but in reality you are firmly in the background as opposed the foreground. Good luck with your strategy.........end of conversation!

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 15:57

You flatter yourself - read between the lines wan. Like I said - I don't think you really understand what I am saying. My current case is not "bearish" but "FLAT" (i.e. I am not currently in the market - when I do so, I post accordingly). You're really confusing me with someone else - you need to pay closer attention to details. If I get bearish/bullish again, I will post accordingly. My 100p you mention related to an expected burst in very short order post my then writing (when I was long). That did not happen and and I immediately reversed stance. AS you know Mr Market passed his judgement on that one. Further on the 100p front - a thoughtful fellow should have asked instead: what was your timeframe when you mentioned 100? Clearly you did not think about it did you (you should have though as you have already noticed I trade, I don't invest). I don't mind to be challenged - as a matter of fact I love it but next time you may want to say something to me, please make the effort to think before you write. You cannot opine without understanding the other fellow's view first. Ta. P.S. Re what stands to scrutiny, do not even go there wann - Mr Market undoubtedly rewarded me twice short and once long. That's all that matters not your (what?) opinion

[wan] 20/11/2020 15:17

Tongosti...I am not your pal, but I do actually grasp that you swing both ways when it suits! And yes I am talking about trading, and I appreciate that some people can make money from that, and that it also helps make the market. Your 'current' bear case hardly stands up well to scrutiny though, when your were stating not that many weeks ago that the share price could go over 100p, albeit that you might yet be proven right ;-) You appear to assume that my post above per se, was directing you, but I was generally highlighting a fact that Trellus Health (and indeed the Mount Sinai partnership) is difficult to measure/factor in. But given what you assume, then put another way, will Trellus Health be another Renalytix (RENX - currently 455p)? If so, then you wouldn't want to be the wrong side of that trade! (or indeed another new EKF/Mount Sinai investment opportunity!) It's just one reason amongst many, that for me the EKF investment case remains very strong. With the wider healthcare/diagnostic picture, overall, providing a very supportive, if not compelling backdrop. Clearly, people should make up their own mind regarding what information they deem to be of any investment relevance.