Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 23/11/2020 13:29

EBITDA is one the most useless metrics out there is and has historically been employed to justify eye watering valuations. Those who use it should instead ask themselves the question: who pays for capital investments - the tooth fairy?

[wan] 23/11/2020 10:50

Has anyone had any thoughts regarding EKF's forecast adjusted EBITDA of £23m (Welshborderer posted that N+1 Singer upgrade their FY20 EBITDA forecasts by a further 6% to £24.4m) and what the average EV/EBITDA multiples are in healthcare/diagnostics etc?

By my quick calculations EKF are currently sitting on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of circa 11 (if I use £23m) and circa 10 (if I use 24.4m). Neither of which includes anything for Trellus Health (digital-health/telehealth is a hot sector and I subtracted cash of circa £30m). Perhaps that's why the CEO thought the degree of pullback was ludicrous?

Chris Mills stated in the recent interview (as well as mentioning EKF had cash of around £30m) that Source Bio (SBI) was easily worth a multiple of 15. (I have seen examples of lower and particularly higher multiples).

I note SBI's share price is significantly up from its IPO price (and up notably post the interview), does anyone know what's the current EV/EBITDA multiple for Source Bio?

Others comments/analysis would be most welcomed.

[tongosti] 23/11/2020 08:35

V poor relative strength relative to wider markets. A potentially good tip off from Mr Market. Still out but keen to jump on the short side at the first available opportunity.The path of least resistance is very likely down with odds favouring a fresh leg South. Patience is the name of the game.

[wan] 21/11/2020 10:26

The following FT article provides reason to think we are indeed on the right track regarding the wider healthcare/diagnostic picture, overall, as providing a very supportive, if not compelling backdrop -

Opinion The Long View

Bullish mood across markets leaves investors with a dilemma

Healthcare could be one option in search for sectors with capacity to expand during 2020s
MICHAEL MACKENZIE

But investors should think hard about what kind of companies and sectors have capacity for expanding during the 2020s. UBS Global Wealth Management advocates looking at fintech and greentech with the global rollout of 5G technology boosting the growth of robotics, autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence, data analytics and cyber security.

It also points to healthcare. UBS estimates that the global population aged above 65 will expand “60 per cent to 1bn by 2030”. This will require more spending on healthcare and related technology.

“Unlike tech, the healthcare sector rally is being driven by profits, not by a valuation uplift,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research. “The long-term valuation stars for healthcare are looking attractive.”

Among the 20 main Euro Stoxx 600 groups, healthcare tops the charts with a 15.6 per cent share. In the US, the sector tops the scale among US small-caps in the Russell 2000 index at almost one-fifth, while the S&P 500 weighting has been stuck around 14 per cent in recent years.

If healthcare expands further from here, then it might in itself help share markets beat the current lowball estimates of future returns.

Full story -

And thus the 'long term' approach/rationale with EKF could provide investors with very healthy returns (doing well while doing good). With 'other' healthcare spin-offs, via the Mount Sinai partnership, adding further to the rationale (especially if you kept/keep the in-specie shares!).

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 19:09

Glad to see you finally got it ... that I trade. Good heavens!

[wan] 20/11/2020 17:03

The difference....we now know you trade, and you can post as much as you like, but in reality you are firmly in the background as opposed the foreground.

Good luck with your strategy.........end of conversation!

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 15:57

You flatter yourself - read between the lines wan.

Like I said - I don't think you really understand what I am saying.

My current case is not "bearish" but "FLAT" (i.e. I am not currently in the market - when I do so, I post accordingly). You're really confusing me with someone else - you need to pay closer attention to details. If I get bearish/bullish again, I will post accordingly.

My 100p you mention related to an expected burst in very short order post my then writing (when I was long). That did not happen and and I immediately reversed stance. AS you know Mr Market passed his judgement on that one.

Further on the 100p front - a thoughtful fellow should have asked instead: what was your timeframe when you mentioned 100? Clearly you did not think about it did you (you should have though as you have already noticed I trade, I don't invest).

I don't mind to be challenged - as a matter of fact I love it but next time you may want to say something to me, please make the effort to think before you write. You cannot opine without understanding the other fellow's view first.

Ta.

P.S. Re what stands to scrutiny, do not even go there wann - Mr Market undoubtedly rewarded me twice short and once long. That's all that matters not your (what?) opinion

[wan] 20/11/2020 15:17

Tongosti...I am not your pal, but I do actually grasp that you swing both ways when it suits! And yes I am talking about trading, and I appreciate that some people can make money from that, and that it also helps make the market. Your 'current' bear case hardly stands up well to scrutiny though, when your were stating not that many weeks ago that the share price could go over 100p, albeit that you might yet be proven right ;-)

You appear to assume that my post above per se, was directing you, but I was generally highlighting a fact that Trellus Health (and indeed the Mount Sinai partnership) is difficult to measure/factor in. But given what you assume, then put another way, will Trellus Health be another Renalytix (RENX - currently 455p)? If so, then you wouldn't want to be the wrong side of that trade!
(or indeed another new EKF/Mount Sinai investment opportunity!)

It's just one reason amongst many, that for me the EKF investment case remains very strong. With the wider healthcare/diagnostic picture, overall, providing a very supportive, if not compelling backdrop.

Clearly, people should make up their own mind regarding what information they deem to be of any investment relevance.

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 14:00

I don’t think you really grasp it pal. With the best will in the world do not pontificate what I should or should not do. Reason (yes indeed two schools of thoughts here): the crux of it all is that you believe that markets inevitably reflect fundamentals. Whereas I believe that there is a two way feedback loop. Markets also heavily influence fundamentals (C19 world is the latest grand example of that in the markets). They call it Reflexivity. Read about it first and then you can share your points of view.

P.S. Implicit in your "you shouldn't be invested here" is veiled arrogance which I am willing to look over at the moment. This all in a gesture of making an effort to engage meaningfully - if you so prefer.

[wan] 20/11/2020 13:18

There is room for all schools of thought. But like I have said before, if you were only focused on certain financial metrics, then you wouldn't have been invested here to have benefited from what is arguably difficult to measure (Trellus Health is next), but a track record in terms of delivery is very encouraging to say the least.

Not to mention that investor expectations with regard to testing might be too pessimistic, and when you consider the CEO's description to the share price reaction, it does imply that that is the case.

Sadly, the soaring infection rates means it's a case of test, test, test.....and to add to that will be antibody testing that will be in the tens of millions (possibly more)!

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 12:20

Fully agreed - sky high market expectations VS what the business can deliver has been a key point I have been making all along.

This is a great business - I have said that before. However, the reality of the game is that a good company can be a bad stock (from the 80p level down) and vice versa.

P.S. Momentum extension on higher timeframes is at the highest it has ever been. Trees do not grow to the sky kind of thing.

[diviincomesearch] 20/11/2020 12:02

Broadly I think the ‘momentum̵7; of the share price rise has been firmly stopped in its tracks. That won’t change until we get some tangible news flow on big ticket orders, or else there is some real gloom over vaccines not being available to late 2021/2022 and the rotation to stay at home stocks kicks off again.

The valuation was fairly demanding on a continued demand for testing- the vaccine prospects took out that optimism for testing. Yes I’m sure it will be far more elevated and other product lines will recover, but the prime store effective gold rush is predicated on big contracts from governments and health authorities on testing en masse.

Let’s see what happens and what the news flow is for the rest of 2020 and what that adds to the bottom line! Fingers crossed!

[capitalist] 20/11/2020 11:05

I agree with you wan. They can be very useful when posters refrain from attacking each other and they put informed comments up.

[wan] 20/11/2020 10:43

There are chatrooms and chatrooms, some are awful, and some predominantly about highlighting/exchanging idea's and investment rationales, which in my view appears quite beneficial/healthy. It's also likely that investors don't have many other ways of sharing such thoughts/info, which is perhaps even more important in the current situation!

Not to mention that companies quite often monitor BB's.

[wan] 20/11/2020 10:18

What is perhaps underappreciated is that the diagnostics world has materially changed, and what we need to now consider is how much larger/important, on a global basis, has it become? And how those resulting dynamics might play out.

Surely, with healthcare itself likely to be considered an even greater necessity and strategic investment by governments, then diagnostics will play an ever increasingly important part?

Suffice to say, and like Chris Mills, I am very content with my 'long term' approach/rationale with EKF.

[strathroyal] 20/11/2020 10:10

Have followed Chris Mills for several years and must admit I was surprised to find out he has appeared at least twice on Vox discussing his portfolio. I see most of the stocks mentioned in August had a spike following his chat and, for the time being I have traded out of my holdings as a number (eg CIR, AVG) have again had a short term spike akin to a Simon Thompson recommendation. Always worth a trade and will buy back when levels return to normal.

Finally, if you've listened to the latest podcast you'll know what CM thinks to chatrooms - not a lot.

[tongosti] 20/11/2020 09:53

Ramping or deramping shouldn't bother reasonable folks (where are they I hear you say). It's a free country innit All it matters is whether Mr Market agreed with you or not. Jury still out on this one so here's to a happy Friday old chap.

[wan] 20/11/2020 09:28

I think that we all agree that Chris Mills has far greater and deeper insights into EKF than what we can muster on here (but we are not too far away from the mark in gaining a deeper insight/understanding regarding what's on offer now and going forwards!).

What I found particularly interesting from the Chris Mills interview was his remark that eventually they would have to sell some EKF as it would represent too big a percentage of the portfolio "but it sure ain't at this price". Implying (despite some thinking/suggesting EKF have run out of steam) that there is much more to come in terms growth and share price appreciation.

[wan] 20/11/2020 07:54

The huge team effort also being recognised -

4hrs ago
Truly humbled to be part of the small Longhorn Diagnostics team selected as one of the finalists for the 1st Annual BioBuzz Awards for the BioHealth Capital Region (encompassing more than 800 life sciences companies and over 70 federal labs and world-class academic and research institutions). Longhorn is one of three finalists in the COVID-19 Impact Award for our FDA cleared PrimeStore MTM, Inactivating Transport Medium, that is being used globally, including in refugee camps through the IOM and major laboratories, hospitals, state laboratories and more, to inactivate samples, stabilize the nucleic acids and provide safe to use high-quality RNA for qPCR, sequencing and biobanking. We thank all of our partners (production, transportation, sales) and clients as it takes a team to bring safe and accurate molecular testing to the world. Thank you to the judges for recognizing the role our technology is playing globally and selecting us for the final three. Truly Humbled.

[mg1982] 19/11/2020 18:15

Well you shouldn't provoke people especially when everyone around you has been nice to you but you keep making it out as if they should be obliged to follow a random persons perspective on a BB.

Bring us something fundamentally wrong with the company or its management and we'll sit up and notice. I promise. Don't bring me % plucked out of air that sometimes work and sometimes don't.

Been doing this for too many years to be able to easily spot the people who seem genuine from trash

[tongosti] 19/11/2020 18:00

Joe - you shouldn’t use foul words you poor sod.

It will do you a world of good to start using your own head (ok this is a big ask in light of your post) as opposed to resorting to calling names (will be interesting to see how many people will confront you on this board for using foul language).

You have no idea how many out and out Joes like yourself I have come across in this business.

Good luck Einstein.