Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[wan] 08/11/2020 06:38

Mginvestor...Just to add that the £22bn contract that you highlight, exemplifies what is happening with regard to diagnostics and aligns with my response to James in post 853.

The following was previously speculation, but it is now fact!-

Royal Mail and Amazon battle for £550m home testing contract

The duo will duke it out for the £550m Government contract, which could swell to more than £1bn in value

By
Oliver Gill
7 November 2020 • 9:30pm

Royal Mail and Amazon are scrambling to seize control of Boris Johnson’s “Operation Moonshot” programme to deliver 215,000 home testing kits a day.

The duo are this weekend finalising rival bids to win a £550m, one-year contract from the taxpayer to spearhead home testing as part of NHS Test and Trace.

The Department for Health has given operators four days warning, prompting a frenzied effort to submit bids ahead of a deadline on Tuesday.

Along with delivering 215,000 home testing kits every day, seven days of Covid test “buffer stock” must be held. Up to four tests can be delivered to each household every day, official filings reveal.

Full story -

This brings me back to several points I made previously, irrespective of who wins the contract -

Apart from it must be incumbent upon the government, and indeed the organisation undertaking any such contract, that it is very safe for all handlers involved, not to mention the general public. It's perhaps then notable that EKF are highlighting the attributes of PrimeStore MTM use in the postal system -

Pathogenic samples stored in the FDA-cleared, CE-IVD marked PrimeStore MTM novel viral transport media, including SARS-CoV-2, are inactivated within minutes of collection. This allows such samples to be transported safely through the postal system or via courier and complies with UN3373 packaging regulations. Furthermore, as samples are stable in PrimeStore MTM for seven days at ambient temperatures, this removes the need for all cold chain logistics during sample collection, transportation and storage. Thereby, preventing mishandled samples and making postal collection a realistic option.
(END)

To my mind this should make PrimeStore MTM being insisted upon by handlers/organisations, or for that matter even making a postal contract fundamentally viable or indeed attractive (not to mention reassuring the postal workers union it's safe!)

Do Royal Mail have refrigerated vehicles?.....apparently not! But in any regard, according to their guide to UK and international parcel and letter services, infectious substances and pathogens are prohibited! One assumes the same would apply to Amazon. Cue the attributes of PrimeStore MTM - No refrigeration required and the virus inactivated!

[wan] 07/11/2020 13:57

Mginvestor...Thank you for the article links (I have not got full access to the Stockopedia article). The Nature article is a very good read and frames the type of capacity required for the mass testing of populations, which ultimately require frequent/repeat testing, but I am sure you get the picture.

I would add, just for clarity, that Abbotts BionaxNOW test, is not to be confused with Abbotts Panbio lateral flow test (that I previously highlighted and which was not mentioned, but has 'already' received very strong demand), they are actually different antigen tests.

It's also why there is room for many different tests, as no single company could cope with the type of volumes required!

[mginvestor] 07/11/2020 13:21

Wan,
I agree 100% with you and share your excitement about how big testing will become.

Look what I found coming from the PHE - valued at £22B over the next 2 years and it can be safely assumed that vast majority of it will be for testing:



@mginvestor

[mginvestor] 07/11/2020 13:09

Just to add a couple of articles which complement what our respected poster wan has been saying:

An introduction to CV19 testing



Rapid testing



Thank you Wan, please keep posting your excellent analysis

[tongosti] 07/11/2020 12:28

you have no clue on the research front genius. I challenged you on mean reverting return skewness stretching back 10 years but you were simply not capable to conduct the research you are talking about. Bagman - you're filtered sport.

[btgman] 07/11/2020 12:19

Ignore Tongosi Wan he is just a spiv trader that's not done the reasearch you know as well as I do where this is going
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[masurenguy] 07/11/2020 11:35

Wan - please carry on posting here, your input is both very informative and greatly valued.

[tongosti] 07/11/2020 11:15

Happy if you are old chap.

[wan] 07/11/2020 11:04

I will add nothing more than to say that post 854 is based on some very solid facts.

And to also mention that the dividend is in the bank (so to speak), but no longer discounted in the share price. A nice signal from Mr Market ;-)

Oh, and I don't believe Trellus is in the price yet...........but things are developing very nicely there too (next in-specie dividend in the making!)

[tongosti] 07/11/2020 10:40

Tell the crowd what they want to hear - love these boards.

[wan] 07/11/2020 10:19

I am not going to post all the details, but I can confirm that (as I have alluded to previously) that demand for new antigen tests has expanded to the degree that once again, demand has 'already' outstripped the supply.

I make no excuse for using sensational language when saying (confirming) that the antigen testing market is about to explode across the globe, with mass-testing of the public being widely committed to!

So, I remain particularly interested in where PrimeStore ATM will fit into all of this. But suffice to say, given that EKF have indicated that the ATM product aimed at low cost markets expected Q4, that EKF are exposed in some meaningful way to the huge demand that is only just starting to be revealed/realised.

It is important to understand that PCR testing (and other tests) will still be required, which in some circumstances are also complimentary/confirmatory.

Furthermore, I am of the opinion that EKF's recent antibody test distribution agreements, offers an entirely different opportunity that will also become 'increasingly' important, some of which will also be complimentary/expansionary for EKF's existing business.

[wan] 07/11/2020 09:48

Thanks James.

The increased interest in diagnostics (such as your reference to David Evans intentions and indeed the rationale for Source Bioscience to list) exemplifies the fact that EKF looks set to benefit from the diagnostic revolution taking place and thus the rising importance that diagnostics will play globally.

[firtashia] 07/11/2020 09:30

There’s a book on equity market anomalies, such as the one you mention, written by a former US stock analyst called Leonard Zacks. It’s a very dry book but if you have a strong interest in flaws in the theory and potential ways of building them into your investment strategy then it might be worth a read.

[james188] 06/11/2020 19:14

Another company that I invest in had an agreed takeover bid this morning,so I liquidated my holdings and reinvested in EKF. For once, the share price actually rose after I invested.

Generally, I believe in EMT, but AIM stocks are typically under researched and often highly illiquid. That means that the share prices are often volatile and there are commensurate investment opportunities. EKF is still relatively under the radar, but it is getting noticed. For example, I see that David Evans is launching a new fund to invest in diagnostic stocks. He is a former chairman of EKF. I think that it is a reasonable assumption that EKF will be one of the stocks that the fund invests in - assuming that it launches.

[hatfullofsky] 06/11/2020 16:20

Sold at 60 expecting a little retrace (doh) bit the bullet and back in today. Update early November - Next week ?

[wan] 06/11/2020 14:58

I note the dividend adjustment has unadjusted and some!

Good to see examples of EKF delivering an excellent service and customer satisfaction too -

EKF Diagnostics
2,739 followers
3 hours ago

University of Leicester : ‘At the University of Leicester we have established an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 screening programme, providing reassurance and support to our staff and students on campus with the aim to reduce viral transmission.
By choosing PrimeStore Molecular Transport media with its viral inactivation properties, we are ensuring the safe transportation and processing of participants samples and ensuring protection for our staff. Furthermore, we have the reassurance of RNA stabilisation, protecting sample integrity at room temperature without the need for additional storage requirements. EFK have provided excellent customer service throughout. Offering a fast and friendly personalised approach, addressing all of our technical considerations and fully supporting our needs.

[tongosti] 06/11/2020 14:09

Why should I pal?Didn't I tell you my game is different from yours? Or perhaps you're trying to convert me:)?

[rivaldo] 06/11/2020 12:01

Hello - what happened there then? :o)) Overhang cleared perhaps.

[wan] 06/11/2020 07:53

For those interested in gaining some form of understanding/overview of testing (and some of the issues e.g. adequate specimen collection and sensitivity etc), the following provides for an excellent read, including some good links -

COVID-19 Testing: Where Do We Stand?
— Persistent problems have kept it from fulfilling early promise, but that could change

by Kristina Fiore, Director of Enterprise & Investigative Reporting, MedPage Today November 5, 2020


From that article, and regardless of the test type, one can appreciate the importance in the quality of the specimen/sample, which brings me back to my interest into what degree the new ATM product improves/enables effective antigen testing.

There are a lot of eyes on the Liverpool testing 'pilot' which starts today, and it will be another important proving ground for mass-population testing.

In other news, large diagnostic players continue to report robust earnings that are beating analysts revised forecasts. With some also reporting that they can sell everything coronavirus related they can make and with such demand being seen as increasingly sustainable.

[tongosti] 06/11/2020 06:53

A wise man would not ask what you did (as I already gave you the answer but clearly you are not a quant hence are afraid to go check the numbers).

So please enlighten me if I have got the above wrong and more importantly how??

PS. Your fundamentals are ALREADY in the price. Why on earth do you think you got a mind boggling +400% advance in under 6 months? Only a rookie - with no understanding how Mr Market works - would argue the share price is not overextended innit?!

[btgman] 06/11/2020 06:43

Tongosti when you arrive at your current odds what numbers are you using for 2020 and 2021 for EKF for the following
Sales
How large due you see as the opportunity for the Covid sample testing kit
EPS
Balance sheet total
Dividend yield
Cash position
Value of investments in it's 2 current quoted investments
What do value do you assign to Trellus
I put forward 5p eps for 2020 and 10p for 2021 if they deliver these numbers I say its 100% that this will go over go over £1
I doubt your crystal ball is big enough to see these numbers but please do enlighten us.
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[tongosti] 06/11/2020 05:57

Clearly, the truth is not the pursuit of the blue sky crowd but here's some cold hard numbers. The odds for a very meaningful advance from here stand at 8%. 92% chance for at least a major consolidation, at this juncture. Whoever is thinking £££ at this stage unknowingly is betting on an event with an 8% chance of success only.Surely, low probability events can take place (yes the Russian roulette may also work a few times, until it doesn't) but they are hardly wise bets as any seasoned poker player will tell you. Try it long enough and one will sure will get their fingers (and toes) burned. Those who have ears, let them hear. PS. I am in pursuit of factual information not following crowd consensus. I can go long or short or avoid (which is what I am currently doing here) a situation altogether depending on what the numbers tell me.

[firtashia] 05/11/2020 21:47

BTG - current EPS forecasts for FY20 & FY21 are 3.25p & a decline to 1.65p respectively so agree if your figures are even remotely close this will put a rocket under the share price.

[tongosti] 05/11/2020 20:40

Seen this all in other boards. Fanclub up in arms once a different view emerges.