Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 19:07

Calling the market top both ways is indeed the specialty of an insecure individual. Love these boards and their quality.

[kiwipunter] 17/11/2020 19:05

Tongosti - filtered. Insecure posting to themselves. Otherwise a good board. Seems a lot of covid sell off for testing companies right now. A lot of vaccine noise that will die down as people get used to the timeframe. Test test test

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 19:03

That's the spirit chaps.

[petewy] 17/11/2020 18:58

james... everybody seems to have him filtered so he's posting to no-one but himself.

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 17:33

By all means do - I am never after similar views but rather contrasting one. But that's me. An open mind is like a parachute - it only works if it's open. Unfortunately that's not the base case on these boards. Most forget that Mr Market is the ultimate judge of the game not some bored grandad going online preaching consensus building (all because he may be long and does not like to read opposing views).

[wan] 17/11/2020 17:14

Thanks for the support CD.

I won't respond to every post (nor get into any slanging matches), but it has helped to differentiate between the two schools of thought.

It will thus be interesting to see what the next few months brings.

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 16:55

You're very welcome to keep your opinions to yourself pal. If you do not like my challenging consensus views - PLEASE filter me. Ta.

[cambridgedon] 17/11/2020 16:52

tongosti, Wan has produced loads of valuable, time-consuming research. I'm sure the majority here welcome and value his contribution and would not wish it to stop.
Whilst I have some sympathy for your short term/trading philosophy, none of us wants to see this board descend into the juvenile name-calling playground that has destroyed many other boards (look at the original PLUS board if you want to see this in action.)
I, for one, would like you to stop the constant reaction/rebuttal to every one of Wan's postings. You've made your point. May I suggest it's time to move on.
Thank you,
CD

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 16:31

Depends what you call "research" pal. As you have seen mine has produced +53% in only three trades. I leave the entertainment and storytelling (and a complete lack of understanding how Mr Market works) to you. If it makes you feel any better, I will "like" your incessant ramping. LOL

[wan] 17/11/2020 14:28

If you agree on the testing front, then that sits somewhat awkwardly with your view on the effect from vaccines.

Has the market discounted in the potential from the low-cost ATM product? In this regard the jury is definitely out, in other words, it appears to have discounted in not much coming from ATM. So time will tell. (but Longhorns comments/confidence are firmly in my mind).

Has the market discounted in the 'potential' IPO of Trellus Health (note EKF's track record)? I think not, but time will tell.

Has the market discounted in the rebound in the core business? To a degree maybe.

Has the market discounted in the growth from the imminent new life science products? I don't think so.

EKF's growing cash and marketable investments might mean next years dividend will be increased. Likewise, investors will be supportive if they use some of that cash to support further partnerships with Mount Sinai, with a view to going down the IPO route and distribute further dividends in-specie. How would the market discount that unknown but real potential?

What could Trellus Health be worth? What could the resulting dividend in-specie be worth, what would the cash dividend and the potential Trellus Health in-specie dividend combined be worth in terms of dividend yield?

Has the market correctly discounted the potential from the new antibody tests, especially in relation to the vaccine news? Difficult to say, but it should be noted that understanding the level of immune response, or how the vaccine response may behave differently to the response from natural infection, and understanding the duration of protection will remain uncertain for a number of years (amongst others aspects), but will be of key interest. So an accurate, data rich, diverse clinical use quantitative antibody test should be in demand, and that demand and interest should last for a number of years, not months. Because up until now, the vaccines manufacturers don't know the answers yet, and nor does the market!

In short, I am not sure EKF get the in-depth coverage for 'everything' to be discounted. But I could be wrong, so please conduct your own research.

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 12:13

I also agree on the testing front, like i have said before. Markets reaction post Pfizer news (+ hugely overextended price) should alert people that it is a high probability that the market has discounted all you think. As for dividends, what good are they if the share price goes meaningfully down from here?

[wan] 17/11/2020 09:44

There is currently a disconnect between the good news from the vaccine developers and the reality in terms of the immediate and long terms effects on testing.

The one thing I am absolutely certain about, is that the level of testing will significantly increase, not decrease. The uncertainty is at what level Covid-19 testing will be sustained going forward beyond this winter. My view fwiw, is that a significant level of testing is likely to be required 'beyond' the next winter (2021).

But EKF are about far more than coronavirus testing and I am looking forward to receiving next years dividend (or perhaps dividends!).

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 09:30

The latest you post from CNBC has been known for weeks now (meaning no surprise for Mr Market there). Re further successful data trials you referred to earlier - yours is only one opinion. I happen to share the opposite view. Still, as far as this game is concerned, I have learned to bruise my own ego and make sure to play the game if and only if my opinion is in sync with the market.

[wan] 17/11/2020 09:24

The sobering reality -

Covid-19 in the US: Is this coronavirus wave the worst yet?
By Mike Hills
Visual journalist

Published 14 minutes ago

Cases are rising quickly right now
With more than 11 million confirmed cases, the US has the highest number of infections in the world and the spread of the virus shows no sign of slowing down.

The chart below shows that the current wave is growing at a faster rate than the previous two - although some of that is down to increased levels of testing.

During the spring wave, testing was mostly limited to confirming cases in people who were already in hospital, meaning the true scale of that outbreak wasn't fully captured.

But the latest data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project shows the current surge is not just down to increased testing - the number of tests carried out in the US was up by 12.5% week on week, while the number of cases increased by more than 40%.

One likely cause is the change of season and colder weather driving people indoors to socialise, where the risk of spread is heightened due to less social distancing and poor ventilation.

This wave is hitting every US region
The current wave of infections is the third one to hit the US this year but the one major difference is that it's affecting every region at the same time.

US must 'hang on' until vaccine arrives
There has been lots of positive news on the vaccine front in recent weeks, but however quick they are delivered will be too late to stop the current wave of infections.

Speaking to Chatham House last week, Dr Fauci said Americans must "hang on" until the vaccines arrive. "The cavalry is coming but don't put your weapons down yet," he added.

Full story -

[wan] 17/11/2020 08:50

I keep a very open mind too, and as much as I would like the vaccine to eliminate Coivd-19, the immediate future is test, test, test! What lies beyond the immediate future will almost certainly involve more testing, as even from a manufacturing and logistical perspective the vaccine roll out and effect will not happen in a matter of months, if you talk years you then might be closer.

You are also assuming that all the other data due to come out of the trials will all be positive, but for example does it suit only a certain cohort, or whether or not it prevents transmission. So, it's unlikely to be a one-way bet!

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 08:35

Trust me - I read with an open mind anything of relevance. It's a basic human trait to extrapolate the recent past into the immediate future. A lot of people are making that mistake now. C19 will be history soon. Listen to what the markets are telling you on the one. As the saying goes, 60 million Frenchmen can't be wrong. Think about it.

[wan] 17/11/2020 08:30

You obviously didn't read the details of my post above!

At this stage it offers some welcome light at the end of the tunnel, but it is yet to be the panacea that some think it is, and regardless, many experts still think the virus will be with us for a very long time, if not endemic.

[tongosti] 17/11/2020 08:16

Haha - you do admit that the vaccine is a game changer. This has been my point from day 1 when Pfizer news came out.

Sad to see that you think the virus will be sticking around for much longer. Very sad.

Stop being gloomy and review your original thesis instead would be my advice.

[wan] 17/11/2020 07:29

The vaccine news has come to the fore, but unfortunately it doesn't change the reality that we have a long and difficult winter ahead of us to navigate!

In my view, the virus is unfortunately going to be with us for much longer than this winter and longer than the vaccine headlines and market reaction would imply. This reality was conveyed by the WHO's Director-General's opening remarks yesterday at the media briefing on COVID-19 and puts the vaccine news into perspective -

Since the beginning of the pandemic, we knew that a vaccine would be essential for bringing the pandemic under control, which is why WHO proposed the ACT Accelerator.

But it’s important to emphasise that a vaccine will complement the other tools we have, not replace them.

A vaccine on its own will not end the pandemic.

Initially, supply will be limited, so health workers, older people and other at-risk populations will be prioritised.

That will hopefully reduce the number of deaths and enable health systems to cope.

But that will still leave the virus with a lot of room to move.

Surveillance will need to continue;

People will still need to be tested, isolated and cared for;

Contacts will still need to be traced and quarantined;

Communities will still need to be engaged, and individuals will still need to be careful.

We still have a long road to travel, and you as our Executive Board have a vital role to play.
Full speech (worth reading)

Additional speech -

16 November 2020
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.
This is not the time for complacency.

While we continue to receive encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines and remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for new tools to start to arrive in the coming months.

Right now we are extremely concerned by the surge in cases we’re seeing in some countries.

Particularly in Europe and the Americas, health workers and health systems are being pushed to the breaking point.

WHO has issued guidance and tools to increase capacity for the medical and public health workforce and supplies and facilities to manage COVID-19 patients.

There is no excuse for inaction. My message is very clear: act fast, act now, act decisively.

A laissez-faire attitude to the virus – not using the full range of tools available – leads to death, suffering and hurts livelihoods and economies.

It’s not a choice between lives or livelihoods. The quickest way to open up economies is to defeat the virus.

===

Last week, leaders came together at both the World Health Assembly and the Paris Peace Forum.

High on the agenda was the ACT Accelerator and ensuring equitable access to new rapid tests, therapeutics and COVID-19 vaccines.

The European Commission, France, Spain, The Republic of Korea and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation pledged US$360 million to COVAX, the vaccines pillar of the ACT Accelerator.

New contributions bring the total committed to US$5.1 billion.

This is very substantial - but to ensure that tools are rolled out quickly across the world so that we save lives, stabilize health systems and drive a truly global recovery, another US$4.2 billion needed urgently and a further US$23.9 billion will be required in 2021.

With countries spending trillions to prop up economies, COVAX represents the best possible deal as it will mean a quicker recovery for all and an end to stimulus.

G20 leaders will meet this weekend.

This is an opportunity for them to commit financially and politically to the ACT Accelerator and COVAX so that together we can end this pandemic quickly.
It’s also a moment for us to strive for the world we want.

This cannot be business as usual.

The time has come for a fundamental shift toward health being seen as an investment, rather than a cost, and the foundation of productive, resilient and stable economies. Health is central.

To reflect this, last week I launched a new Council on the Economics of Health for All, to be chaired by distinguished economist Mariana Mazzucato, to put universal health coverage at the centre of how we think about value creation and economic growth.

Health like the climate crisis, inequality and conflict cannot be tackled in silos.

A new collective way forward is needed to ensure that we deliver on the promises of the past and tackle these intertwined challenges together.

I thank you.

Full speech (also worth reading) -

[wan] 16/11/2020 18:22

I concur James. With the core business and excellent management ultimately being why I have remained invested here for a very long time!

Clearly the largest orders for MTM were emanating from the US, and unfortunately the latest 7-day average, shows the United States is reporting more than 144,000 daily cases and 1,120 daily deaths, the highest for any country in the world. So, the already impressive sales, could increase further.

But I would add that as vaccine interest escalates and trials near completion and (hopefully) successfully complete, so will interest in the Kantaro quantitative antibody test. For which we are yet to see any indications of orders/sales.

But let's not also forget the 'other' non-core element and non Covid-19 related business of potential spin-outs resulting from the agreement and relationship with Mount Sinai, that provides EKF with advanced access to innovative commercial opportunities and presents significant opportunity for EKF to collaborate on ground breaking medical technologies that can be spun off and proceed down the IPO route.

[james188] 16/11/2020 17:47

It looks highly likely that we can expect further positive news as to further COVID-19 vaccines in the next few months and weeks (not just AZ/Oxford University), which is excellent news for planet earth.

It continues to be obvious that testing - in various forms - will be necessary for a long time, however quickly the immunisation programme starts in earnest. If you are not following a day trading strategy, then the very volatile share price for EKF really does not matter. This is a much longer play and an effective series of vaccines will mean that some of the other core business divisions for EKF will recover from the hit that they have taken this year. We have no reliable numbers as to the number of PrimeStore MTM/ATM sales that EKF is making (I suspect pretty impressive, but that is a guess), but my focus is on the other business divisions and how they progress. That is the base business case for investing in EKF. I am still adding.

[wan] 16/11/2020 13:01

Note the reference to British manufacturers (music to my ears!), which includes consumables.