Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[purple11] 02/6/2023 10:26

buy printed 02-Jun-23 09:45:48 it is not delayed

[ravenna23] 02/6/2023 10:26

Eden has been on a roll this yearHa Ha HaCenkos are throwing the cash aroundWhy

[purple11] 02/6/2023 10:21

SMALL CAP IDEAS: Eden Research wins new approvals for its biopesticides... what next for its shares?

By William Farrington At Proactive Investors For This Is Money

Published: 15:25, 22 May 2023 | Updated: 15:25, 22 May 2023


Eden Research has been on a roll this year.

Flagship biopesticide products Mevalone and Cedroz have received regulatory approvals left, right and centre, gaining access to new European markets including Greece, Poland and Italy.

Mevalone was also approved in New Zealand under the brand name Novellus.

Then, in a massive boost to Eden's IP, California and Florida, the two largest US state for crop production, gave the nod to nematode killer Cedroz.
Florida recently approved Mevalone, the fungus killer mainly used in grape-growing vineyards
+1

Florida recently approved Mevalone, the fungus killer mainly used in grape-growing vineyards

Florida also approved Mevalone, the bortrytis fungus killer mainly used in grape-growing vineyards.

An impressive run of approvals no doubt, but it wasn't easy for Eden to get there.

As chief executive Sean Smith explained in a recent interview, the two-tiered regulatory system in the US was a major struggle.

Federal-level approval from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was the first barrier to entry into the important market.

Typically you could expect a two-year window for approval. For Eden, it took four years to get Mevalone and Cedroz approved.

Smith pointed to Covid lockdowns as the primary cause of this massive delay

On the bright side, the EPA actually approved the products' three active ingredients and the delivery systems that will be the building blocks for future products.

In theory, this should make it easier and quicker to get new products federally approved in the US… but then you have the states to worry about.

Some, Smith explained, simply say 'thank you very much for your application and your fee, go along and do what you like'.

Others, like California, are more rigorous and demand additional field trials before approval is granted.

By far the biggest market for Eden's products and a 'significant force' in grape harvesting, California has yet to approve Eden's biggest killer app Mevalone.

'That's the next milestone for us,' stated Smith, who said to keep ears to the ground for news in the coming months.

'In the meantime, our distributors are cracking on with the job of selling products. In truth, we don't expect a major revenue impact until the 2024 growing season on the basis that California will have the most impact,' he added.

Getting in the weeds on revenue potential, it's clear that, with patience, Eden's addressable market is huge.

For Mevalone alone, European and US markets are roughly the same - around €101million and €95million ($109million and $102million) respectively, translating to around €3million of sales in each jurisdiction (slightly less in the US) per year for Eden's range of products at an estimated 40 per cent margin.

For the UK specifically, Mevalone's addressable market is relatively small compared to other regions, with the 4,000 hectares of vineyards being no bigger than France's Chablis region alone.

But that pesky, grape-loving bortrytis fungus grows 'incredibly well' on the Isles due to favourable weather conditions.

Most UK vineyard operators will cite the fungus as one of their biggest problems if you ask them, says Smith.

Approval in the UK for Mevalone is still pending, but Eden is hopeful for news some time this year.

Conversely, a country like Turkey, a massive grower of grapes to sate the country's appetite for raisins, is less of a target market due to its hot and dry conditions.

Not only do these addressable market numbers exclude additional pending approvals for Mevalone, they also exclude another huge opportunity for Eden.

As it stands, Mevalone is only approved for a few crops; primarily grapes, but apples in France too, a fruit with a similar disease profile to grapes.

But just as Viagra, to use a crude example, was originally intended for heart disease before rising to the challenge in other medicinal fields, Mevalone has significant potential to branch out into other use cases.

It's called 'label expansion' in pharma parlance, described by the FDA as when 'additional clinical data have shown the drug can safely and effectively treat patient populations other than those for which it was originally intended'.

In Eden's situation, this means discovering new use cases far beyond what Mevalone is currently approved for.

Smith explains: 'The target that we are jointly focused on right now together is to expand the label to include two other disease targets, which will mean that the target market multiplies by size by a factor of 10.'

Clearly massive potential, and Eden has already made steps in expanding Mevalone's label, including an application in France in the coming weeks.

Not enough expansion plans on the plate for you? There's also an entirely new product in the works being developed in partnership with US agriscience giant Corteva.

'We've been working with those guys for the last few years on the development of a seed treatment, and we are expecting to have a lot more to say about that fairly soon,' Smith teased.

Future sales potential for this as yet unnamed seed treatment is €21.6million in the US and €8.6million in the UK and Europe.

As it stands, Eden's share price has underperformed in 2023, with, at 3.4p, a market capitalisation of £14million.

But it's hard to deny the potential of the group, even if, as with regulatory approvals, it may require a bit of patience.

Keep your eyes peeled.

[ravenna23] 02/6/2023 10:19

NMS is 50000. A 400,000 deal can be delayed for days. Keep up the optimism

[purple11] 02/6/2023 10:15

nice £14.7 buy printed

not concerned about a placing.prices often rally after placings.

from this cap you are looking at a tremendous opportunity just as EDEN begin to commercialize their products gla

[supersonico] 02/6/2023 09:59

So no evidence again to back up your slur..

[ravenna23] 02/6/2023 09:56

You can do better than working for Cenkos

[supersonico] 02/6/2023 09:34

So no evidence then to back up your Lube slur.

[ravenna23] 02/6/2023 09:23

I am sorry but it is obvious you suffer from grandiose narcissism. I suggest you seek advice.

[attyg] 02/6/2023 09:18

Brucie,

I do not know what/who whale2 could be.
However, I would be surprised if there is no whale 2 and can think of at least two possible organisations, but have no evidence to support concrete interest.

I very much take on board your comments regarding perceived failures of the company to deliver and that this, together with an expectation the company will be obliged to raise additional funds to take it through to cash positive is holding the share price back.
The lack of any Cenkos projections beyond the current year does nothing to help the share price or encourage anyone to buy.

This has created, in my view, an extraordinary opportunity for those to prepared to buy at such depressed levels, to make substantial gains from any investment.

I am not going to detail why I believe this year will be different for Eden's business - until the funding issue is kicked into touch, those interested in the company should read the ARs, the presentations and attend the forthcoming AGM. I have and will.

In my view the company has an extraordinary future to look forward to - across various industries - and can be a most important British success.

[supersonico] 02/6/2023 09:16

Lube,

Is your PWC dumping Eden slur another one of your legendary 'best guesses' or do you have anything to back that statement up?

[supersonico] 02/6/2023 08:51

Lube flash.. As Lube face their final curtain.

Lube updates 'best guesses' as previous ones evaporate.


'Therefore my best guess at zero pence is June 30th'.

'However I expect Eden to delist and go private before then'.

'If that fails it will be a prepackaged administration which will end up with the biggest shareholders and Corteva owning Eden'.

[ravenna23] 02/6/2023 08:33

At the next trading update, due mid August , the company will no longer be able to claim it is a going concern unless there is a significant sale or capital raise. This is because it cannot state that it has enough cash to last a year. I am extremely surprised that AIM allows Eden to exist on the market as it must be close to insolvency.

[brucie5] 01/6/2023 21:36

Super, I have done so, but my substantive point remains. Perhaps Attyg and Investing can address it? I can't believe that with their degree of research "Whale 2.0" would be information only gleaned by you?
But I'll leave it now.
Peace and love to all.
:)

[supersonico] 01/6/2023 21:03

Brucie.

Thanks for the apology... now please edit the statement accordingly.

[brucie5] 01/6/2023 20:32

OK. That's what in inferred wrongly, I apologise.

[supersonico] 01/6/2023 18:07

Brucie,

I'd suggest you retract the CEO stuff from that statement as it's baseless. As a reminder as I said earlier the observations I make are based on my own research and assumptions.

[brucie5] 01/6/2023 17:59

Edit: re your two posts:

1.supersonico1 Jun '23 - 10:58 - 14172 of 14174
0 0 0
Brucie,
Smith had the opportunity on the last Proactive video to comment on the previously mentioned '2024 growing season' estimation ...first stated 12/5/21.

He chose not to.
Why do you think that was?

2. supersonico1 Jun '23 - 14:18 - 14183 of 14191
0 0 0
Brucie,
I'm assuming SS does not want this in the public domain .. it's an observation I make based on my own research and assumptions. I will not be disclosing it other than to refer to it as Whale2.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edit: Super, my presumption is of little importance compared to the presumption of the market, which computes all known data about the company - this would include the mismatch between promises and delivery. It is in no mood to buy on the possibility that there is secret information, which cannot be disclosed, though it can be hinted at on bb boards.
Everything by this stage should be out in the open, at least for those who 'know' about the investment case to be able to say so publically.
It's not just a matter of DD or DYOR, it's really a matter of basic transparency - if there is to be interest returning to this stock.
As I said earlier, I believe there are several on this board who have studied the business for many years. Are they guarding it as a secret too, or are they like me, as yet unaware of what "Whale 2" might be?
That is a problem from where I'm standing at least.

[supersonico] 01/6/2023 17:43

Brucie5,

One thing I can confirm is you need to do more research.

Go dig and don't presume anything.

[brucie5] 01/6/2023 17:27

OK, but here's another question: does anyone else know what you mean by this? I presume, if it's significant, both Attyg and Investing are holding the same secret card close to their chests. Would they care to confirm?
Otherwise it becomes something of a canard, surely, or worse.

[supersonico] 01/6/2023 16:45

FYI / I will not DM you on this topic Brucie5.