Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[florenceorbis] 31/12/2019 08:00

Peel Hunt Buy 460.00 - Reiterates

have a great 2020

[mach100] 31/12/2019 07:54

Pug, thanks for your thoughts. The abolition of the divi never sits well with investors. Apart from that it seems a reasonably cheery update but with a lot of hope in it. I expect an initial fall then perhaps a recovery intra-day as a not as bad as expected relief rally comes.

[pugugly] 31/12/2019 07:24

"The Directors remain confident and excited about the improving market conditions and future prospects for the business."


However half year profit of only of only £1 million and half year eps 1.51p say 3p annualised very high for a market cap of £145M unless very very significant recovery and improvement likely - Report unfortunately for me does not give clear message that this is probable in the mid future - Other views?

[cerrito] 23/12/2019 16:48

I can understand why you did what you did Mach100, although my reading of the latest news items is that Japan does not have ASF but does have classical swine virus.
That said I am not buying more and if it does make its way to the Americas I hesitate to think what will happen to the share price.
Still perplexed that ANP share price is unmoved by all of this.

[waldron] 23/12/2019 16:19

chuckle and cheers

seasons greetings

enjoy and take care one and all

[pugugly] 23/12/2019 16:00

Mach100 - Very wise (imo) though your sale looks as though being marked as a buy - If so then most of todays "buys are in fact sales" Looks as though an II may have lost their marbles - anyway not their money - Still to high possible forward p/e for me - Gut feel suggests 175/185 more of a target area but what do I (or the analysts) know!!

Happy Christmas everyone !!

[mach100] 23/12/2019 10:57

Pig flu outbreaks now too in quite a few prefectures in Japan. I decided to bale this morning as I see limited upside and fairly large downside if trading further deteriorates. Has been a very poor investment for me and I am guilty of hanging on too long for a turnaround that has shown no sign of coming about.

[cerrito] 21/12/2019 13:09

You are right PUGUGLY to highlight this.
That said the key is that it is kept out of the Americas.
I have read various articles about the world wide effect of ASF in China and the impact it is having on meat protein prices.
This is just one such article and in theory while demand in China and neighbouring countries is being hit this will be to some extent counterbalanced by demand in other areas.

[pugugly] 19/12/2019 10:57

Potentially more bad news as ASF now spreading further -

[cerrito] 15/12/2019 18:25

PUGUGLY
Interesting point on patent longevity in your 1082 and I have made a note to ask at the next AGM. Let's hope I remember.
Your points in 1083 are very fair and you are right that there are dark clouds. Hopefully the world wide increase in meat protein prices and demand will feed through to EAH. I need to say I am confused with the current tariff situation with tariffs charged by China on US Pig imports as I thought I had read that China had lifted them but could not find any corroboration on that.

[pugugly] 13/12/2019 08:48

Surprised this has not fallen this morning as the jump in sterling after the election will reduce the sterling profits given the high proportion of overseas revenue and chinese pig herd still suffering from ASF. -

PLUS situation still not yet under control and spreading to other regions and countries
see.

[pugugly] 11/12/2019 11:55

PH Joint broker so (imo) has to use rose tinted glasses - Still too many negatives with ASF rampant and seems to be spreading -

Also In the UK a patent can last for 20 years from the point of filing for the patent


and Filed: June 30, 2006

So e&oe Just over 6 years left unexpired before generic competition can kick in UNLESS further and later patents exist for new improved formulations -

Just initial digging but looks as though the timeline may be running down fairly quickly

Thoughts/knowledge?

[florenceorbis] 11/12/2019 07:29

Peel Hunt Buy 460.00 - Reiterates

[ariane] 05/12/2019 07:46

Eco Animal Health Group PLC EAH Peel Hunt Buy 460.00 - Reiterates

[cerrito] 21/11/2019 20:03

I was looking at buying more a couple of days back and it appears that Standard Aberdeen have stopped selling for now which explains the slight recovery.
Looking at the 4 RNS issued last week not clear who has been selling apart from Canaccord who went down from 5.1 to 4.8pc and Danske and Axa seemed to have increased. Blackrock opaque as they say they are under 5% which they were before.
Volume declining from last week with 1.7m shares traded on Nov 11.

[waldron] 14/11/2019 12:12

Last Signal: STAY IN CASH

Last Close:
237.00
Change:
0.0000
Percent change
0.00%

Signal Update

Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY IN CASH. The previous SELL signal was issued on 12/11/2019, 1 day ago, when the stock price was 270.66. Since then EAH.L has fallen by -12.44%.

Market Outlook

The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected

britishbulls

[pugugly] 14/11/2019 11:46

vprt - Good point - I sold out back in 2014 at approx today's prices. Having bought at 252 back in 2013 So now very cautious in jumping back in. Another worry could be the shelf life of Aivlosin - Will stock have to be written of and if so how much.

[vprt] 14/11/2019 11:29

Watching this one from the sidelines (bullet dodged, so far!), one concern I have is Aivlosin's patent expiry and the potential for entry of low-priced copycats. Can anyone reassure or provide more info on this (IP & competition)?

[topvest] 14/11/2019 09:56

Well Stockopedia are now forecasting:
2020 9.65p EPS 7.8p DPS
2021 12.6p EPS 8.15p DPS
Hardly a disaster but down 50% from pre-ASF forecasts.
Expect a sharp rebound in profitability once the crisis is over.
I'm sticking with it.

[easwarareddy] 12/11/2019 23:06

Its ok don't worry about losses here... u need to buy into eua... multi bagger..

[topvest] 11/11/2019 16:43

I will be interested to see the revised EPS forecast on Stockopedia tomorrow. I will post if there is an update. This looks a long way back to £6 and director selling a few years back was timely and the smart move!
My view, with the benefit of hindsight, is that I made a mistake not selling at least some of my shares at a similar time. I bought mine for about a £1 and so its been an excellent ride, turned sour!
Nevertheless, I think it's a buy at £2 and a hold at £3.
It will take time for a recovery, but could be the subject of a bid at some point once the ship has been steadied and ASF dies down.
I expect this to be in the £2-3 range for at least a year. In 2 or 3 years time, it should recover to £4 or £5 a share.
I am a holder at present, but won't be tempted to add any more until the interims and we get a clearer position of where things are at. The share price has done OK today to be honest, so maybe the EPS downgrade isn't as bad as feared by the early morning sellers.

[topvest] 11/11/2019 11:54

Good rebound. You do need to factor in that there is always a big minority interest on the China profitability anyway, unlike with other regions and so the profitability impact on EPS is less than the headline numbers (Turnover and PBT) might suggest.

[cerrito] 11/11/2019 11:42

Surprised that the shares went down so much at the start as clear that the ASF China situation has added uncertainty. Well done to those who bought first thing and I was a bit slow off the mark and the buy price had gone up to £2 before I added.
We have a crazy situation: the Chinese leadership under severe internal political pressure from high pork prices and Trump suffering because his key states have low pork prices so one can only assume they will cut some special deal like what Canada and China did with their pork trade last week.
Ex China low double digit revenue growth YOY seems fully acceptable bearing in mind US issues and on the other hand buoyant conditions in countries such as Brazil.
Note comments on changes in accounting but would not expect that to have a major impact given the nature of the Company’s operations. As stated reflects a bigger accountancy firm and new CFO.
Let’s hope that Dr Jones’ appointment as Chairman gives us boardroom stability.
The Peel Hunt valuation of 460 to me factors in a good deal of good news in the short term.