Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[henryatkin] 11/11/2019 09:46

Never owned these before but talk about "buy when everyone else is fearful" ha ha - what an opportunity.

[misca2] 11/11/2019 09:26

Peel Hunt Buy but down from 600.00 to 460.00 Reiterates

[audigger] 11/11/2019 08:30

My word, this is a bolt from the blue (i.e. accounting not ASF). I never imagined we would re-visit these prices. A major dent in my SIPP! Ouch!

[topvest] 11/11/2019 08:11

Blimey..not a great start to the week. China is not a big surprise. Accounting restatements are never nice, but that's what you get when you use a very small firm of auditors that are not up to speed with IFRS. Growth rating of the past has now gone. Value share territory again. It looks a good recovery share from below £1.50 in my view. I'm not selling mine. Nothing has changed long-term. ASF is clearly the short to medium term problem, but probably can't get much worse.

[misca2] 04/11/2019 07:31

EAH Peel Hunt Buy 600.00 - Reiterates


Still optimistic it seems

[cerrito] 03/11/2019 21:41

My reading is that the share price of both ANP and EAH will go nowhere till the worldwide situation of AFS is clearer and not apparent to me when that will be.

[cerrito] 13/10/2019 20:11

An article from earlier in the week on AFS in China which suggests that the disease is not going away any time soon


Not yet tempted to add but keeping share price under review.

[waldron] 07/10/2019 09:42

Will put links in header

cheers

[waldron] 07/10/2019 09:41

DIVIDEND PAY DATE

16th OCTOBER 2019

[adrian j boris] 07/10/2019 09:34

Moving Averages analysis

Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently below mid-term; AND below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BEARISH in short-term; and BEARISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands Analysis

EAH.L has closed above bottom band by 20.4%. Bollinger Bands are 81.5% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to EAH.L's normal range. The bands have been in this narrow range for 13 bars. This is a sign that the market may be about to initiate a new trend.

[adrian j boris] 07/10/2019 09:24

ast Signal: STAY SHORT
Last Close:
353.00
Change:
0.0000
Percent change
0.00%


Signal Update

Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY SHORT. The previous SHORT signal was issued on 08/08/2019, 57 days ago, when the stock price was 395.59. Since then EAH.L has fallen by -10.77%.

Market Outlook

Bear market rallies may be vicious reversals, giving hard times to those holding short positions; so, it is better to be on alert.

[adrian j boris] 07/10/2019 09:18

NO IDEA

lol

One presumes they have been thorough in their analysis and not used an algo robot


certainly only covered by two analyst it seems with one without opinion

[steve3sandal] 07/10/2019 08:51

Ajb, do Peel Hunt have a rationale and a timeframe or are they using the hopeful MifidII finger in the air again?

[adrian j boris] 07/10/2019 08:38

Peel Hunt Buy 600.00 - Reiterates

[topvest] 23/9/2019 20:10

Yes, interesting. I am a bit puzzled on the various board movements, including the sudden retirement of Peter Lawrence and then the new Chairman.

[tudes100] 23/9/2019 03:50

Thanks for posting Cerrito, appreciated

[cerrito] 22/9/2019 23:10

A good meeting ; only four shareholders there but plenty of questions. I came away with little desire to add and zero desire to sell. I have had shares since July last year and this was the first AGM I have been to.
All resolutions passed easily with a very high voter turnout at least for an AIM company-51m out of 67m shares voted.
The meeting was chaired by one of the non execs as the interim chairman Andrew Jones was apparently ill. This meant that not unnaturally the CEO dominated the q&a but I would be reluctant to deduce from that that he dominated the board, although long term holders will be a better judge of that. We were told that the reason Wood left was so abruptly and quickly was that he came in to do the specific job of sorting out corporate governance and he had accomplished this. Nobody was indelicate enough to ask why he had not hung around to appoint the new Chairman, especially as in the AR he talked about being there for 6 months.. No real comment on the change of FD-the new one seemed a good appointment but as this is my first AGM I have no view of the previous one. All very strange and I have not worked out how damaging to the company-guess we need to reserve judgement till we see the credentials and strength of the new chairman.
They are looking for a new chairman with an understanding of the biological markets. They are continuing with their strategy of investing in R&D as outlined in the AR and of course we have had the two Pirbright RNS.
Incidentally this coming year will be the first audit of the new auditors. They will be using their offices in Uk and China and the US operation will continue to be audited by the same company who have audited them for the last few years.
China
A good discussion on this. Question asked about huge expansion of receivables in RMB. Told that their response to the competitive pressures in China following ASF was not to cut margins but extend credit terms. Told that as at end of September RMB receivables will have declined and current indications are there will be no change in the aging of receivables as per Note 19.
With hindsight I should have got a better understanding of the JV arrangement in China and how it works. Given the very high pork prices in China the whole pork industry will become a big political issue as the Chinese New Year approaches and the stocks of frozen pork is run down. Indeed we have the situation of lack of pork in China and excess in US/Canada…if I understood it there are issues with Canadian pork exports to China because there were exports of US pork rebranded as Canadian.
Factory relocation was as the old one was located in a residential area. Site has been inspected not only by Chinese authorities but also by FDA who went on site and an Independent third party inspector and as a result of this there has been sign off from the relevant authorities in many countries.
Pre ASF 98% of sales were to pork sector and 2% to poultry. Repeated what they said in the AR that as a result of this the industry is consolidating and becoming more professional ie moving away from feeding pigs with swill.
They have a 60/65 sales team across China- well smaller than some of their competitors. They still cannot get to the farms and so doing seminars in the local towns and seminars on line.
Rest of Asia
Did not get clear insight into spread of ASF. Basically sell more to poultry than pork markets except Thailand where pork sales are bigger and the industry is concentrated.
Americas
They are going on the basis that ASF will not come to US/Canada because of very high hygiene standards. In the short term and until the tariff issue is resolved, sales will be subdued but should go well in Latam where they are putting in additional resources.
R&D
They will focus on pigs and poultry and for now pass on aquaculture.Focusing on vaccines which are quicker and less costly to develop.-see Sept 11 RNS.
Newsflow
We await the interims in December and news of new Chairman as well as any major ASF developments.

[topvest] 04/9/2019 19:59

Yes, agreed. One of these collaborations could well come off big time at some point. A nice to have.

[audigger] 04/9/2019 11:39

Nice to see some diversification.

[topvest] 22/8/2019 12:31

Yes, all a bit odd. We will find out later no doubt, rather than now as we should have been. Like auditors I think it would be helpful if directors were required by law to explain the reason for their resignation.

[bottomfisher] 22/8/2019 09:22

Cerrito you probably understand EAH and ANP better than many of us. However, I always thought it odd when Peter Lawrence, Anpario's chairman, resigned as long-time chairman of Eco Animal Healthcare, which he founded in 1972, and was replaced as chairman by Richard Wood, Anpario's senior independent director. Given that both companies have a number of institutional investors on their share register, perhaps the change was triggered by corporate governance concerns about the independence of two companies with unusually close boardroom ties. As a non-expert, I would be interested to know whether there is much competitive overlap between the two companies.

[cerrito] 22/8/2019 07:40

I would appreciate any insight from old hands here as to Richard Wood stepping down with immediate effect.
There was no hint in the March 2019 RNS announcing his arrival on the board that his role was restricted to the board restructuring.
I am never sure in cases like this whether there is a clash on strategy or a personality clash or perhaps while a very successful businessman he was not a good chairman.
My only contact with him was at the Anpario AGM where he impressed me by taking the effort to meet and great all shareholders.

[topvest] 09/8/2019 13:18

Cerrito - think you have just been a tad unlucky. ASF is behind the weakness.
Just to firm up on the Chinese numbers, they are not quite as significant as you think. China makes c£4m net profit per annum, but the impact on the group is only £2m as there is a 52% minority interest. See pages 80 and 93.
Provided ASF doesn’t move around the world, other territories should be fairly buoyant and are wholly owned so pound for pound, twice as valuable.

[topvest] 09/8/2019 12:42

Yes, taken a look myself. ASF could well lead to further downgrades this year, and presumably things will take a while to recover.

In the end, China will no doubt bounce back.
£5 is probably fair value here. If you look at the value in use numbers in note 11 there is c£168m to £287m of headroom by my reckoning.

[audigger] 07/8/2019 08:28

Insightful post. share price doesn't like it though! The other difficult aspect to gauge is how much incremental sales they will secure from all the recent (last 2 years) approvals, especially egg laying hens which is big business. There must be still good opportunity for further growth through continued new approvals of aivlosin. Diversification though is key for longer-term sustainability.