Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[bigboyo] 03/5/2012 09:52

hybrasil,

..the valuation includes the 15 year franchise rights !

MTGlass,

.. how did you arrive at the cash running out timeframe (and when is next statement due ?)

[hybrasil] 03/5/2012 09:06

Just looked again. advfn fundamentals are wrong I think 25 million shares in issue.At 40 p a share thats £10m. That values each of the 12 shops at in excess of £800k. Something wrong there I would have thought?

[hybrasil] 03/5/2012 08:55

However this is a much more professional organisation than the one that started in switzerland. I think if it survives 24 months it will be great. Still way overvalued in my view.

[m.t.glass] 03/5/2012 08:32

hybrasil -- by next statement DPP cash reserves will be gone and surely sliding into debt. A 64% year-long slide is no 'pullback'(!) - it's a slow ongoing traincrash, with carriages still rolling down the hillside.

[cheou812] 02/5/2012 14:55

30p is certainly looking like a strong possibility, hybrasil. All very quiet on the news front here. Nothing new to sustain the SP, as Europe goes down the swanny...

[hybrasil] 23/4/2012 08:20

starting the inevitable pull back.

I will look strongly at these if and when they get to 30p

[cheou812] 30/3/2012 14:45

Accepted.

Onwards and upwards.

[zaksab] 28/3/2012 11:57

MASSIVE APOLOGIES!

[cheou812] 28/3/2012 11:50

Still can't read then...

I'm almost embarrassed for you.

[cheou812] 28/3/2012 09:36

Does zaksab stand for illiterate child, perchance?

[zaksab] 26/3/2012 20:39

Just for the record, I took up the shares at the IPO, sold them shortly afterward for 70p, rebought them shortly afterward for 55p, sold them shortly afterward for 120p, rebought them shortly afterward for 70p, sold them shortly afterward for 84p (selling more than my original stake to go short), bought back my short shortly afterward at 52p. I'm not regretting leaping out at 52p.

This is not untrue. Check out the chart.

[zaksab] 26/3/2012 20:35

I know that.

[cheou812] 26/3/2012 17:05

It touched 120p last year, zaksab. Closed just below it.

Check out the chart.

[zaksab] 26/3/2012 16:59

120p? Wow - how oh so clever of you


(not to mention untrue).

[cheou812] 26/3/2012 16:51

I thought I read somewhere I while back (and I could be wrong) that the company planned to open another 12 or so stores in 2012. If this is not the case, then this share will be stagnant for much of the year, I'd say, unless people are banking on stellar figures during the summer and Euro 2012 tournament.

I do believe sub-franchising is the way to go but if the company is not planning to do this until next year (and they already have the commissary to cope with 30 stores I think I read in the literature) and they've hire a woman who used to work for Tesco to find new locations, then perhaps the management is being fairly cautious and less bullish because the sales figures are not matching expectations.

This is pure hypothesising and I hope the chain can grow but now I'm regretting not leaping out for 120p last year as I can't see where the growth is going to come from in the next 12-18 months.

[bigboyo] 26/3/2012 12:28

hybrasil

Interesting that the UK company has acquired the rights for Germany and apparently the UK franchisees are lining up to take on more units ...

Incidentally, the UK company gives LfL figures and its pretty common knowledge that an average well established Domino's in Blighty takes 15K per week ...

By that comparison either DP is a flop in Poland or massive growth is surely to come as the marketing effort gets underway ...

This is why, as investors we need quality information ... presumably this is why DP listed .. to raise money ...

Finally, Pizza Express spent on average £1m per unit to buy back the franchises as they were immensely profitable ... they biught out at p/e's of 5-6 and they themselves were bought out p/e double that.. easy money ...

So does it make sense to sub-franchise out so soon UNLESS cash is draining fast out of the business ...

[hybrasil] 26/3/2012 10:34

bigboyo.
Good post

It is a bit odd not to refer openly to the massive change in plans and to give a reason. Over the years I have come to believe the one thing the market likes is the truth. All they needed to do was to give the reason for the change.
The worthington family have got out. I dont like that though there may be perfectly good reasons for doing so.

I lost my shirt in Global Brands (the swiss franchise). I did do very well in the english one.

This could work but I think I need a cheaper share price to take that risk.

[bigboyo] 26/3/2012 09:40

hybrasil
note the change in tack with the results today ... only THREE more company owned stores this year (they were talking of 15 in 2012 a short while ago) and then in 2013 sub-franchising ...

its obvious that the initial plans were way too optimistic and that the sales at the newest stores are NOT encouraging.

chronologically :

from rns dated 28/2/2011... first store opened on 28.02.2011 .. so by the end of june 2011 (1/2 year) the store would have been open a full 4 months i.e. 17 weeks december 2011 it would have traded for a FULL 10 months i.e 44 weeks

from rns dated 27.07.2011 ... third store opened 27.07.2011 .. so by end of december 2011 it and the second store would have traded for a full 5 months or 21 weeks

from rns dated 31.08.2011 ... fourth store opened on 31.08.2011 ... so by end of december it would have been open at least 4 months i.e. 16 weeks

from rns dated 15.09.2011 ... fifth and sixth sores opened on 15.09.2011 .. so by end of december they would have been open 3.5 months i.e. 14 weeks.

NOW RNS dated 19.09.2011 ... 1/2 yearly report for period to 30 june 2011 2011 ... the revenue figure was 69K ... this would include ONLY ONE STORE ... so the revenue per week for that store would have been 69/17 = 4K per week

now lets fast forward to the full results and ONLY take into account trading from the SIX stores above ...

store 1 = 44 weeks
store 2 = 21 weeks
store 3 = 21 weeks
store 4 = 16 weeks
store 5 = 14 weeks
store 6 = 14 weeks
-------------------
total . = 130 weeks
-------------------

The revenue declared in the final results to period 31/12/2011 is only 452 K

452/130 = 3.5K per week per store MAXIMUM and assuming that the stores opened later took ZERO !!

So the first store did really well .. at 1/2 year RNS it was taking 4K per week and if we assume that this store took 4k per week for the full 44 weeks of trading i.e 44*4 = 176K then the other FIVE stores would have ONLY have taken 452-176 = 276 K and this over 130-44 weeks i.e. 86 weeks thus giving an average weekly take of 276/86 = 3.1K MAXIMUM

So it seems that stores subsequent to the first one are not taking anywhere the amount that would have been budgeted ... note that the CEO nor the new Chairman mention takings against budget ... presumably they put a finger in the air for the budgeted take ...

In terms of transparency I think the year end RNS is very economical with information and the huge change in planned openings for this year from 15 to 3 in a marker that cash is flowing out of the business at a very fast level and certainly faster than anticipated ...

... was this why new cash was raised when only 3 stores will be opened in 2012 ??? the rest of the £3.2m will probably be used to sustain the losses that the existing units seem to be making ...

... and that raises serious concerns for me ... maybe I am picky ... but things are not adding up ..

[mirandaj] 22/3/2012 18:55

This part of the web site is in English and has been running for some time.
Invaluable to visitors or others who do not speak Polish.

[hybrasil] 21/3/2012 11:59

The worthington family obviously decided this wasnt worth holding on to !

[hybrasil] 14/3/2012 07:56

Just had a look at the offer document. It was supposed to open 12 stores by end 11 which it did.
However its supposed to open 27 by end 2012 ie another 15 stores this year. Its now mid march and no rns on the issue.
They raised a paltry amount of additional money and you can be sure the profits from the existing will not give them the necessary cash flow.


Oh dear

[hybrasil] 14/3/2012 07:49

If it follows the path of dominos in the uk it will have quite a downward path for a while. The dominos franchise is not a sure thing. I lost my shirt on gbr.

No news yet this year of further store openings. Unless it gets to critical mass its a goner.

[halfpenny] 10/3/2012 12:22

why why why invest in a DOG, its dropping like a stone and the economy is not helping, good buy at 26p

wait for the fall to 26p then buy...too risky

[wylecoyote] 02/3/2012 12:53

Mafia,

that is all 'speculative'. Have you have assumed that the market moved the share price to that high because there was underlying value to the company? If so, the share price would have remained quite stable, whereas it has fluctuated quite a bit. The market cannot place a value on it, at least not until the results start showing something interesting going on. Personally, I thought it was quite pricey on the original IPO, but it raised the capital on the name.