Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 31/1/2013 12:14

Are you listening?

[hybrasil] 30/1/2013 16:26

went to buy some more electronically bid for in 200k and only offered in 5k

[hybrasil] 30/1/2013 16:15

Starting to move now. I think 50p is easily attainable by the summer

[lucky_punter] 30/1/2013 12:34

What do George Soros, Gerry Ford and Chris Moore, the former chief of Domino's Pizza UK, all have in common?
As a trivial pursuit question it is certainly left-field. As is the answer: a business called DP Poland (LON:DPP).

[guernseymoney] 30/1/2013 09:29

Thanks Midas for your thoughts. Agreed the franchising model is very significant, however I just remain worried about the number of stores they need to build to get a positive/decent EPS in the short term - particularly that there are so many shares in issue compared to when the IPO happened.

Again, am holiding on to these for 5 years I would have thought, nice to be in early.

I also wish there was a bit more news out there. Suppose just have to wait to get the 31 12 12 financials.

[m1das_touch] 25/1/2013 13:41

Guernsey, my understanding is that it's franchising where the real money is for the Domino model. They don't cover the capital costs of start-up, but obviously take a good chunk of the profts, including through supplying all the ingredients etc. Plus the more stores (corporate or franchise) the greater the income available for the marketing budget. Of course operational gearing comes into play too, with growing number of stores leading to reduced costs etc. etc.

[guernseymoney] 25/1/2013 12:03

Thanks John, interesting interview albeit no real news. Nice to see Peter Shaw in control and his positivity and enthusiasm is great.

I suppose my concern with the franchising element, is that DPP are going to have to establish a lot of franchises in order to be cash generative since the income stream from franchising is likely to be considerably lower compared to the stores they own and operate themselves.

On the Peel Hunt DCF calculations - does anyone know where I can find these? I have googled, but alas no joy.

Am holding on tight to DPP, plan to get more shares as the year progresses.

Again, just wished they hadn't diluted so much and/or considered a higher equity raise level - 15p was far too low, am sure the institutional investors would have come in at 20p. Or even 18p.

[john ford timmins] 23/1/2013 16:37

Peter Shaw, CEO of DP Poland (LON:DPP), tells Proactiveinvestors that the master franchise that the company holds for its exclusive operations in Poland give it a good opportunity to benefit from the economy as it moves ahead. Peter says that in addition to the opportunities that Poland itself offers, the brand and the management team that has been put in place gives investors the chance to benefit from the company's position.

[guernseymoney] 20/1/2013 18:05

Dominos UK (LON:DOM) got a SELL rating in the latest Investors Chronicle due to, inter alia, saturation/low growth prospects and also fact that their push to Germany is unlikely to be profitable for the foreseeable.

Would be interested to hear about any visit to Poland or any customer experiences.

Per 2012 interim FS, they talk about £80k EBITDA being a mature level of profitability per store (takes 36 months to get to this). That's a lot of stores the company needs to move with in order to get a positive EPS.

I still have a lot of faith in DPP, I just wish they hadn't diluted it so much in the recent share issue. This is a long term play in my mind.

The recent upward movement has been positive and I'd be grateful if someone could tell me where I can scrutinise the DCF analysis Peel Hunt (NOMAD) did.

[hybrasil] 11/1/2013 10:01

went with my conviction and bought some more today

[hybrasil] 11/1/2013 09:08

This floated in mid 2010 at 50p. Went up to 120p. I suspect you will see 50p here in jig time. Its no longer a start up.Its up and trading. New stores to open.I plan to fly out and have a little look round.

[hybrasil] 10/1/2013 17:08

didnt get the christmas tips we hoped. I believe (and hope) you will see sustained price progress from here

[m1das_touch] 05/1/2013 10:33

Thanks for sharing your thoughts guernsey, I agree with your analysis both about the huge potential and the risks. I think it's very significant that Chris Moore is now on the board, as he can bring all his wealth of experience from establishing Dominos in the UK & Ireland.

I too was frustrated by the massive dilution from the recent placing, and the flip-flopping of strategy over the last couple of years between company-owned stores and franchising. Again I think Chris Moore might be really helpful in bringing some stability and clear vision.

I think this will be a slow burner and may take a couple of years to begin to show it's long-term potential. I'm keeping the faith for now and holding on in the hope of progress being reported in 2013 and a re-rating once it's clear that the Domino brand is becoming firmly established in Poland.

[guernseymoney] 27/12/2012 21:54

Interesting Peel Hunt analysis, a genius investing colleague of mine (Double maths first, ACA and CFA) and I have been chatting about DPP for a while (we both own shares) and both agree it's got potential (we got DCF of about 90p based on our workings).

We were however worried by the recent dilution in the form of 70 or so million more shares in the mix.

Despite this, based on (to name a few);

- number of stores anticipated;
- management's estimated EBITDA per store;
- new experienced management (Dominos UK);
- super sound business and franchising model;
- pizza company P/E ratios;
- fantastic growth (sustainable) and economic prospects of Poland;

then this share is a BUY, BUY, BUY :-)

There are risks (particularly considering that this is Dominos' second attempt at Poland), however this attempt at domination is hugely different than the first time around. I have faith that Peter Shaw and co will deliver.

[m1das_touch] 27/12/2012 16:28

Yes, Peter Shaw said in an interview that he expected to be able to announce two new store openings by the end of the year, and hopefully another 10+ in 2013.

[sabre6] 21/12/2012 16:05

hybrasil
I will be very surprised if it is not tipped by someone over the festive season.
Also isn`t there two more stores to be oponed by the end of this year.

[hybrasil] 21/12/2012 07:42

Sabre
I think they will but not in the next two years. They after all have to get Germany Switzerland etc going. A lot of the risk will have gone from this by then. It's a share that I suspect the Christmas tipsters will fancy

[sabre6] 20/12/2012 18:45

Look at todays trades all buys the momentum is building as well.
I wonder if DPE will take them over?
Just a thought.

[konkel] 20/12/2012 08:55

Yes, nice trade.....still own some but let 50 go at 22....I guess we've gotta let the mm have his turn!!

[hybrasil] 20/12/2012 08:52

Konkel bought a 100k@23.25? If you got them in the placing you have done well. Bought the other day at 19.25

[konkel] 20/12/2012 08:27

You probably bought a few of mine!!....I've just let a piece go into the strength.

[hybrasil] 20/12/2012 08:21

Bought again this am. Had to pay up

[hybrasil] 20/12/2012 08:00

Bought back in. These look like they are due a quick run

[hybrasil] 20/12/2012 08:00

Bought back in. These look like they are due a quick run

[konkel] 18/12/2012 09:22

Research note from Peel Hunt today....DCF fair value of 30p (they expect this to be reached within 12 months) but increases to 63p with nore bullish assumptions.