Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 12/11/2021 11:24

"The methane fee outlined in the Build Back Better bill only applies to petroleum and natural gas systems, not to the agricultural industry.

On Sept. 22, Congressman Markwayne Mullin, a Republican representing Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District, penned an op-ed about President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” infrastructure bill. In the column, Mullin claims, “the legislation would impose a ‘fee’ on all methane emissions, including in our agricultural industry.”



" The estimated CH(4) emission rate per cattle, buffaloe, sheep and goat in developed countries are 150.7, 137, 21.9 and 13.7 (g/animal/day) respectively. "

Which over a 20 year life would be about 550kg of methane per cow. With a methane tax of $900 that would be $495 per cow.

[gary1966] 12/11/2021 11:21

So $51m EBITDA, before cost synergies, for $81m, not bad business if you can get it.

[sogoesit] 12/11/2021 10:53

I worked in Denmark a few years ago.
The office buildings were pretty much hermetically sealed, and dried. In winter, most people were absent, sick, at least one or two days out of ten and I had migraines affecting my work.
BP also used to have a modern office building, in Moorgate, which they themselves acknowledged as being a "sick building".
Legionnaire's disease also originates in air conditioning (the inverse of a heat pump).
I hope folks have their "medical" thinking caps on when all is said and done "for our health".

Good advice 1knocker.

[professor john koestler] 12/11/2021 10:41

Good advice 1knocker. Worth posting.

[1knocker] 12/11/2021 10:24

The activities of life (cooking, washing, breathing etc)produce moisture. Solid walls and old damp proof courses are seldom proof against moisture ingress. Cavity walls are designed to allow air to circulate between the inner and outer leaves. In older houses drafts provide the ventilation to prevent condensation, as did coal fires, which also heated and dried the fabric of the walls.

The winters in this country are damp rather than especially cold.

Moisture, unless carried away by ventilation (drafts) condenses out on the coldest surfaces in the house. That is why single glazed windows run with condensation. Do you remember mopping pints of water off the glazing and window ledge? Where do you think that wet is going to end if it no longer condenses on the windows? Save by ventilation, you can only move not eliminate the point at which condensation occurs. The effect of most retrofit insulation schemes is to leave the exterior walls (especially solid walls) in the corners of the rooms (and cupboards) the coldest surface, leading to condensation and mould. Filling cavity walls bridges the two leaves promoting the ingress of damp from outside to in, as well as preventing the air circulation which keeps the exterior of the inner leaf from forming condensation.

The damage done to older housing stock in particular, and to the health of the inhabitants, by double glazing, insulation and draft proofing, and reduced heating is terrifying. We have a government made disaster in the making here. I have seen the results of acting in accordance with official guidance in this field in the past, and the cost of making good the damage. Be careful.

Houses are breathing (and surprisingly mobile too) organisms. Understand the metabolism of yours before you interfere with it. One size most certainly not fit all, but in every occupied house without significant drafts you are going to need to OPEN windows to replace that natural ventilation if you are not going to do a lot of harm.

Be very careful what you do to your house, and never forget that the most dangerous words you will hear are 'I am from the government and I am here to help you'. No government (of any stripe) ever counts the cost in collateral damage when there is a 'target' to be hit.

This is a bit off piste, but I hope it may save someone somewhere a bit of self inflicted grief.

[simplemilltownboy] 12/11/2021 07:58

Agreed an unexpected bonus . GLA

[saltaire111] 12/11/2021 07:35

Cracking bit of business this:

Diversified's successful monetising of these Assets effectively reduces its investment in the previously announced Tanos transaction by 30% to $81 million from the original $118 million((a) ), net of purchase price adjustments. Consistent with previous acquisitions, the Company ascribed no value to the undeveloped Haynesville leasehold. Accordingly, the Company's sale of the Assets reflects its proven ability to purchase predominantly PDP (proved, developed, producing) assets at low multiples and drive further value through the strategic monetisation of undeveloped upside potential. Diversified expects to close the transaction in mid to late December subject to the purchaser's normal and customary diligence.

Salty.

[holts] 12/11/2021 07:25

Cashback sir ?

[cassini] 11/11/2021 23:33

Fardels Bear,

Well it was an own goal really - I stripped off the old fitted carpet from my dining room floor, sanded the floorboards, stained it (tricky with pine - sanding sealer needed first) finished with a Liberon Wax-Oil and it looked really nice.

Of course that meant it was no longer insulated by the carpet and underlay.

I caulked the floorboard gaps with string and natural wood-coloured caulk as the wind would've lifted the rugs on a bad night if I hadn't.

However, I'd still taken a step back with regards to insulation so went down under the floor (I have enough wriggle space) dressed up in a disposable paper bunny suit, plus mask and goggles and stuffed rockwool in between the joists and stapled plastic net to the joists to hold the rockwool in place.

Worst job evah...

Rockwool finds every gap in your clothing...

I did find the time to use an IR thermometer on the floor during the job and the floor was ~1F warmer where the rockwool was than where it wasn't. Since I can't remember the outside temperature at that point, that info isn't too useful. It was probably in January though.

However, for a floor covered in deep shagpile carpet and underlay, I don't imagine extra underfloor insulation is worth a lot, but I haven't any figures for that.

The source I consulted said 10% of heat escaped through the ground flooring in houses, much less than the first floor ceiling which might account for 50%! I do have trouble with air tightness though as air from my underfloor space can just dodge around the edges of the floorboards in my kitchen then up behind the kitchen units so I reckon, lacking shagpile in the kitchen, underfloor insulation might do some good there... or at the least, spray foam insulation around the edges.

[fardels bear] 11/11/2021 22:49

Please let me know how you get on with suspended floor insulation. I bought the thickest carpet and underlay I could find when underfloor insulation was suggested. You sink so far into the carpet that we can't find the cat.

[bountyhunter] 11/11/2021 16:43

XD 2 wks today

[cassini] 11/11/2021 16:39

Luckily, having quit the rat race recently (having finished quite far down the field sadly) my petrol/diesel costs are now very modest indeed. I used to do 20,000 miles/year commuting.

I've recently had new double glazing put in - the old stuff was blown, leaked air around the edges and had alloy frames that formed cold bridges and encouraged condensation.

I'll extend my underfloor insulation (suspended wooden floor) a bit this year and the front and back doors leak air at the thresholds so they need work.

My attic is partway through extra OSB board flooring/storage space being put in on those polymer flooring stilts one can buy nowadays, so I'm putting extra rockwool in as I add the flooring.

I can see everything that counts as a necessity costing at least 10% more by next year so owning DEC, BP, plus miners like RIO, FRES, POLY and HOC is another facet of my plan to try and keep up with commodity inflation...

[spangle93] 11/11/2021 08:53

Your savings will help you afford the higher UK petrol costs (and heating oil if you're in a rural spot) that the stronger dollar leads to ;-)

[cassini] 11/11/2021 00:39

Dollar popped up today and the USD:GBP exchange rate has dropped to about 1.341 as I type this.

I think I'll take this opportunity to convert my DEC USD denominated dividends into sterling. It'll help offset the currency conversion spread that II offers.

[spangle93] 10/11/2021 12:45

This article was in Offshore online



Maybe something that DEC might consider striving towards - hard to kop flak from shock journalists if you can point to a gold award

[johnhemming] 10/11/2021 12:37

This is how I calculate it:
(I put the figure up on 6th Nov)
Hence don't rely on my figures I put them up for debate.

These are my detailed calculations (for the year 2020). I would welcome people checking them as it is complex set of calculations (mainly because of having to convert between units).

Diversified had methane leaks of 1,068,000 Metric Tonnes of CO2 equivalent which converted with the ratio of 28 is 38,142.86 tonnes of methane.

Diversified produced on average 653.8 MMcf per day equivalent to 238,637 over the year.

Each MMCf weighs 21 metric tons so the total weight of gas is 5,011,377 tonnes

If the proposal with a threshold of 0.2% comes in that figure is 10,022.75 tonnes

That means diversified would be 28,120.10 tonnes over the limit and would have had to pay at a rate of $900 per tonne 25,308,092.83

[joedjoed] 10/11/2021 11:57

Sorry..schoolboy error there. Forgot to multiply by 100 so percentage would be 1.2 which means we are way over. Can some one (in)sanity check the calcs please.

[joedjoed] 10/11/2021 11:53

Trying to ans my own ques
Per the Rystad research link: "The breakdown of methane emissions into G&B and production is critical to quantify the theoretical impact of the fee for oil & gas operators as the allowed methane intensity thresholds in the proposal are different – 0.2% for production and 0.05% for G&B"
This num does not seem to be avail directly from the DEC reports
My stab at calculating it using 2020 data.
P53 methane emissions in "CO2 equiv" is 1068,000 tonnes
The ratio is 28
Givign 38,143 tonnes actual methane
Total gas prod per page 72 is 199,667 mmcf
Using hxxps://www.aqua-calc.com/calculate/volume-to-weight I get 1 mmcf is 15.69 tonnes
So tot prod in tonnes is 3,132,775
Meaning methane leak as percentage is 0.0121.

If this is right and if being below the threshold of 0.2 means no fee (?????) then this looks ok.
Let me know if I have missed anyting

[fozzie] 10/11/2021 11:39

This has been and continues to be a wonderful opportunity to take a large position in a fantastic business. This green carp will blow over soon enough and the share price here will return to previous highs imo.

[joedjoed] 10/11/2021 11:35

Do we have any methane intensity nums for DEC.

[johnhemming] 10/11/2021 10:37

I don't think these figures are right, but am trying to get to the bottom of this

[johnhemming] 09/11/2021 17:41

The spot price is up 2%.

[sunbed44] 09/11/2021 16:47

Gas down 10% today but dont know why

[1knocker] 09/11/2021 13:55

I don't think (fingers and toes crossed) that you will regret your purchase. I am up to my quota after recent top ups, but if the price slips below 100 I doubt I shall be able to resist buying a few more!

Even the Gov of the B of E accepts that gas prices, even if they fall from recent spikes, are going to remain high indefinitely, because there is no way we can manage without the stuff for the foreseeable future. The UK is arranging emergency gas provision from Qatar for this winter, and with the world coming back to life after the covid overreaction (even Australia and NZ seem now to have realised that they can't stop the world and get off), energy requirements for green infrastructure construction, and with long term fossil fuel investment a risky business, I expect in the 22/23 winter gas will be at a premium too. The point was also well made that the more fierce the rhetoric about methane leakage etc, the cheaper new assets will be to acquire, and the greater the competitive edge those like DEC with the skills to manage old gas infrastructure will have.

Once the Glasgow carnival is over and out of the news, cold pensioners and kids replace it in the headlines, and reality replaces virtue signalling, I expect the share price to rise again. Heres hoping, anyhow.