Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[seangwhite] 06/11/2021 08:55

Bojo was planning to get the Red Bus out of storage to help us forget last week's debacle. Carrie said no - not until it was made to run on those green batteries from China.

[fardels bear] 06/11/2021 07:34

And Boris' bird May yet change her mind on a lot of the minutiae.

[johnhemming] 06/11/2021 07:32

In any event "Build Back Better" has been delayed to I think next week now and the Infrastructure Bill has passed. Hence we don't know what is happening yet.

[lab305] 06/11/2021 01:19

Excuse me lads I think we are getting a little off piste.

[1knocker] 05/11/2021 20:41

Prof
You re wrong about the tabloids. They are very sensitive to changing popular winds, and give a shove in the direction the bandwagon is beginning to move. Who is the Labour leader the Sun backed - Blair, but not until they spotted that he was a winner. They did not back Kinnoock before him or Brown after, did they? They recognised very quickly that they were losers, even though the political pundits thought otherwise. You sell papers by telling people what they want to hear, and if you are going to stay in business you need to spot the way the wind is blowing as soon as it begins to stir. Of course, you bow your own trumpet too, and claim to have made the weather - 'it was the sun what won it' etc - but it is not true.

I am deeply interested in popular opinion. Ultimately, that decides the direction of travel. What difference does it make to my actions whether Brexit, the Green revolution or whatever will be a 'good thing' or a disaster? I can't bring about the good or stop the bad events events of that that. None of us can. But if I can reliably ascertain which way the result will go, I can position myself to benefit, or at least to minimise the damage the result causes to me.

Nothing I say can stop the politicos pushing the price of heating my home sky high. and I can't stockpile gas, but I can fix my gas price for two years at a low tariff IF I appreciate the way the wind is blowing before the price rises occur, and I can buy and store an extra winter's coal to beat a price rise, and can do so with minimal carrying cost while interest rates are low, and I can also load up on DEC, Shell and BP when their SPs are low (as they were only a few months ago. I just feel really really sorry for the uninformed and poor who can't protect themselves as I can IF I SEE WHICH WAY THE WIND IS GOING TO BLOW IN GOOD TIME.

I agree with you that whatever side I take in the political argument, and whether there is or is not a climate emergency, and whether or not the 'cure' will do more harm than good if there is, makes no difference to the outcome. As you rightly say, we all have to deal with events as they are not as we would wish them to be. We have to play the ball where it lies, to use a golfing analogy. The more accurately and the sooner we assess what is actually coming, the more effectively we can prepare. Just as in warfare, the key to the game is to find out what lies the other side of the hill.

Of course, we all have feelings. It does grieve me that a lot of people are going to suffer badly as a result of the hike in gas electricity and petrol prices, but there is nothing I can do to help them. Nor do I do them any harm by positioning myself so that all being well the money I shall make out of dividends from hydrocarbon stocks purchased when those stocks were cheap will far exceed my increased expenditure as a result of increased petrol gas and electricity prices. My gain is no one's loss.

THat's what boards like this are all about.

I wish we had wise political leaders who had equipped the country with large numbers of small, well tried, nuclear generators, so that we would ALL be warm at a sensible price this winter and carbon emissions would already be reduced, but there was nothing I could do to achieve that. But I COULD see that nuclear generation will have to come, so I bought a stack of Cameco shares 9 months ago, and they are already up 80% and IMO they are going to go a lot higher.

So I am not on anyone's back over the green revolution, any more than I fell out with anyone over Brexit. It really does not matter what you or I think about such matters, or who is right. It is certainly not worth falling out with anyone over. We just have to get on with making the best of the business, be it a good or a bad business. We all have to play the ball where it lies - so we watch where it is rolling to, and prepare ourselves accordingly.

My apologies to one and all for posting on non-DEC matters. I should have spared you by responding by way of a PM to the Prof. I hope the tip to buy uranium shares is sufficient reparation, if you have not done so already.

Good luck and good investing to all.

[professor john koestler] 05/11/2021 18:29

1knocker

I think you will find that the tabloids don't align themselves with the popular wind, they drive it! When you have an ignorant and generally uneducated electorate Murdoch et al have a free-hand in driving the agenda. Murdoch loves it. The politicians love it. The suckers fall for it.

Anyway, I'm really not generally interested in 'popular opinion'. I'm not a politician. I'm more interested in facts and listening to experts, not your average idiot's view in the street. The idiot in the street can take whatever view he wants with respect to climate change, it makes no difference to whether human-induced climate change is real or not, and the experts, scientists give us the greatest handle on that. Not the tabloids, not you, not your mates 'darn the pub'.

Whatever you think, if climate change is real, you will have to get with the program sooner or later - whether you like it or not. Same with Brexit. Those with self-interest, the oil companies, Farage, Mogg will continue to fill the empty heads of those that read tabloids and they will be able to continue the lies and shift blame for many years, but the truth will be born one day. I have no doubt.

[lab305] 05/11/2021 15:48

Ptolemy where do you get your figures ? DEC have 10000 non producing wells ? I think not .

[gary1966] 05/11/2021 15:33

Ptolemy.

Where did you get the figure of 10K from as I have seen no disclosure about this?

Not sure I like the rounding as 80 wells required for the year and they have done 115 up to the end of October and so still have just over another two months to retire more.

[97peter] 05/11/2021 15:12

Once US government starts to monitor and fine oil and gas companies for methane leaks. DEC will grow rapidly as the go to company to plug, service and reduce the methane losses and capping!! Then we will be over £5. In the interim I am happy to hold long term, take the divi’s , and re-invest on dips as we head over 450p.

[ptolemy] 05/11/2021 15:05

I believe the issue weighing on DEC shares is the perception that whilst they're conforming to the law, they're not committed fully to the spirit of the law. At a time when environmental issues are being aired so publicly, this make the share price vulnerable.

DEC strategy takes advantage of the law on well closure in the USA which is weak and local regulators feel that if they push too hard energy Cos will walk away from their liabilities. The DEC claim that they are closing in more wells than required by law becomes a bit hollow when you consider the approximate round numbers - closures required = 100, closures undertaken =120, number of wells producing no gas and/or less than they emit = 10000.

So, DEC may be doing more than their competitors, but given the picture I've just painted and the acute focus on gas emissions, I believe DEC's team have an ever increasing uphill struggle to continue as they have been doing. DEC will need to do much more, imo, to reassure stakeholders that it takes the spirit of the law more seriously and that means spending money.

[brucie5] 05/11/2021 14:45

Good posts PJK, GP. Let's keep this decent, honourable, and open to intelligent dissent.

Which does not include snake oil science.

[cassini] 05/11/2021 14:44

The weather will be... HOT! 7 secs.



;0)

[glennpaul] 05/11/2021 14:37

Well I've just bought another £10k worth. I think the push to reduce methane emissions is good for the environment and good for DEC too. One of the ways they improve their returns is by reducing leaks of methane. They are also in a position if they choose to setup a separate subsidiary capping all those leaky orphan wells. If legislation is passed it's likely the states will have to be responsible for capping them and DEC have found they can cap them cheaper than other contractors. Also smaller less well capitalised companies without that capacity are likely to be more inclined to sell to such as DEC at a lower price. A win win situation. ?

[1knocker] 05/11/2021 14:22

Be grateful for the dips. As you say, shares go down as well as up. Both dips and spikes provide opportunities for the investor, and the trader. Think of the dip as Greta's gift to you!

[brucie5] 05/11/2021 13:23

scrwal5 Nov '21 - 13:04 - 1859 of 1860
0 0 0
In the meantime the share price drifts downwards annoyingly.
---------------------------------------------------
In the meantime, you collect the dividend. It's a value investment.
So long as it meets your criteria, short term movements in the share price should be largely immaterial. If you want 100% upside tomorrow, there are others.

[scrwal] 05/11/2021 13:04

In the meantime the share price drifts downwards annoyingly.

[professor john koestler] 05/11/2021 12:16

Hear! hear!

[brucie5] 05/11/2021 12:07

lab, I agree. And the oil industry, to be fair, have form from the 1970s, in suppressing the evidence discovered by their own scientists. This is well documented by the scientists themselves.

But we work in a world where people will want the lights on, and energy sufficient for their economic survival. The developing work also finds itself locked in a struggle with low basic standards of living, the route through which, for us, has lain through carbon intensive growth.

My current investments in O&G - BP, WEN, DEC and SQZ, are all different, but I try to put them through the filter of what they offer, by way of transitional routeways, or mitigations, in exchange for the essential interim need for oil, but especially for gas. But I take a great interest in all the criticism that is or might be made against them and do not seek to hide behind climate denial, or Greta bashing, to make myself feel better. Personally, I think Greta has done a great job in bringing the matter to world attention, and energising young people, whose future it largely is. If she was my daughter I'd be hugely proud of her.

[lab305] 05/11/2021 11:44

The US oil and gas industry is a massive one and held dear by many Americans. Never again do they want to be held to ransom by the Arabs. There will be a massive lobby against regulation in both houses and not an easy path for legislation. The rout here is well overdone but you need nerve to hold this share against the likes of PJK and his ilk spreading doom and gloom. In any case I don't believe that the proposals will be detrimental to DEC as they already do much of what is being asked and at very little cost.
I am sure that they will demonstrate their good stewardship on CM day and try to attract ethical investors. Remember natural gas is a relatively clean fuel producing much less pollution than most and should be viewed as the intermediate fuel of the next thirty years or so.