Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[theprovosts] 02/12/2021 16:24

yep, almost 13% dividend. shake out the weak hands as low as possible, thats what the market is designed to do.

[1knocker] 02/12/2021 16:15

I am surprised to see the share price sub 100, but high div payers which run into turbulence do quite ofter suffer something of a drop just after going ex div, as many of those who were looking to bail out hang on for the dividend before doing so. With luck the shakeout will now be complete.

I am already up to my intended full holding here, but if DEC goes much lower I shall be extremely tempted to buy more.

[aleman] 02/12/2021 09:40

They don't sell much into the spot market. Yesterday I posted the Dec 23 contract. Here's the Dec 24 contract.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cassini] 01/12/2021 22:13

Nat Gas -6.99% today.

[johnhemming] 01/12/2021 14:29

"Sen. Joe Manchin, a key centrist Democrat who holds considerable influence over President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion social welfare and green energy legislation, met Tuesday with top Republican Mitch McConnell to discuss energy policy, among other things.

Manchin, who represents West Virginia and is the state’s former governor, huddled with McConnell, the Senate minority leader from neighboring Kentucky, as top Senate Democrats plot a pathway to pass Biden’s Build Back Better legislation by the end of the year.

[aleman] 30/11/2021 12:26

Spot might be falling but DEC's main sales timeframes seem to be holding up?

Dec 23 contract


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[johnhemming] 30/11/2021 10:00

We have a good idea as to what the scope 1 methane emissions are for Appalachia, but not for the new purchases.

I think the trending down, however, is more a wrong reaction to Omicron rather than an analysis of the position of any one particular Oil or Gas company.

[lab305] 30/11/2021 08:39

Surely smarter well management would maximise gas production and minimise losses. One would think therefore that most if not all the targets to prevent escaping gas had already been met . If they have not and large quantities of gas are escaping then these initiatives can only be in our interest by extending resources . Seems like we win both ways to me and yet the price continues to drop. Soon it will be paying 11%+ after withholding tax.

[asp5] 30/11/2021 08:34

There was a 720K sale towards end of day yesterday. As we approach year end I would assume funds & large investors will be adjusting their portfolios, so movements may not necessarily reflect news flow.

[lord gnome] 30/11/2021 08:14

Am I missing something? Why the sudden and sharp price drop on the bell? High volume to start the day.

[johnhemming] 30/11/2021 07:11

Going by today's target of roughly a quarter off the 2020 Appalachia emissions by 2026. I estimate that if the methane fee survives until 2026 it should cut the chargeable emissions by 1/3. (even if Manchin backs it and the courts allow it the 2022 elections will probably get rid of it as it puts the price of fuel up)

[marksp2011] 26/11/2021 15:42

IC article is unlikely to attract many PIs.

Focus was much more on the "are the numbers real" thread than ESG.

[sogoesit] 26/11/2021 14:24

My channel trade, last from 100, not working so closed out.
Collecting last dividend.
Will see what happens in 2022.
Happy Christmas to all.

[r9505571] 26/11/2021 11:02

Dumped entire holding and into NCYT. GL all

[johnhemming] 26/11/2021 09:43

I think the Blackrock is someone shorting.

At the moment there is a general market skittishness movement down. I am expecting a market crash with a rotation from momenntum into value (particularly loss making tech stocks are likely to suffer). Whether that happens in 2021 or 2022 is unclear.

Once the dust has settled from that DEC should do quite well, but there is some limited evidence that this process has started.

I am not persuaded that B.1.1.529 is particularly significant.

[outsizeclothes.com] 25/11/2021 16:33

This has better ESG criteria than any other fossil fuel energy company.
They are managing existing end-of-life wells, that have a distinct greenhouse gas emission probability, in an as environmentally friendly way, and responsible way, as possible.

[asp5] 25/11/2021 16:31

I get the impression DEC mgmt are also frustrated by the low share price. I think this will naturally self correct over the course of 2022.

Given current dividend consumes €144M of the ~400M estimated FCF in 2022 - it leaves plenty of headroom for mgmt to improve share price performance.

If the €144M is kept flat and the number of shares reduced via buy backs, then yield & growth can be maintained.

e.g. with a 105p share price and a 17c div - it "costs" DEC ~12%. If borrowing costs for DEC are around 4,5% - they could for example borrow €50M (or use FCF) to reduce shares outstanding to 800M. This saves €6M in dividend payments vs cost of €2,25M (if taken as a pure loan) and should theoretically cause a 6% increase in share price all else being equal.

I think DEC will reward those who can be patient and see out the price swings. Timing though is really a mugs game. DYOR.

[redtom1] 25/11/2021 12:58

Yield for next year (4.25 cents per Q) is currently 12.3% (based on fx of 1.331).
I only expect a total return of 7% so the share price can fall over 5% every year and I will still get the TSR that I require (assuming divi is stable).
Whilst this is an unloved fossil fuel stock (therefore being avoided my most institutions, this is a great income stock for us retirees (ethics aside).

[cassini] 25/11/2021 12:39

Depends: I get mine paid in dollars (it was the default option) and have to change it to GBP via my broker's forex facility, which involves a small charge, somewhere between 1% and 2% IIRC.

I think some brokers have better rates for conversion than this.

However if for instance the £ is weakening wrt the $ I guess getting paid in $ can be an advantage as you choose when you want to convert them to take advantage of the exchange rate.

[r9505571] 25/11/2021 11:55

Folks is it better to receive dividend in dollars or sterling?

[lab305] 25/11/2021 08:38

4x4.25 =17. 17x.85 =14.45. 14.45/1.3345 exchange rate= 10.828pence
Approx 10.31% yield .
Gas priced over 5 consistently now when we get 2.6. This can only get much better.
Why is the share price at this deplorable level ?

[outsizeclothes.com] 24/11/2021 20:58

Tomorrow ex-divvy (@ 4cents) ?

[r9505571] 24/11/2021 10:25

The 50m barrels that the US are releasing is sour crude that requires more gas to process. It also equivalent to just over a days worth of supply from OPEC!

[simplemilltownboy] 22/11/2021 17:09

Great analysis, this is in line with my thoughts, so nice to see someone else backing up my personal views.

[asp5] 22/11/2021 15:12

Just been checking - in an August RNS the debt facility was raised to $625M. This means that current debt capacity is ~$85M (netting out recent acquisitions), with debt reduced by $50M pa and the recent $37M asset sale - DEC have approx $172M of debt capacity.

If their debt facility is increased by say $250M in the next review (a similar amount to the last one) , then they would have a debt capacity of ~$422M - if DEC then divert 10% of FCF (~$40M) - they would have enough capacity to do another ~$1B of acquisitions in 2022 with the Oaktree deal in place.

Based on above ball park calculations - I do not believe they need to raise equity going forward ...... this should be highly positive on the share price if correct.

Have increased my position.